On Friday, February 7, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba met United States President Donald Trump for the first time at the White House. Ishiba was among the first foreign leaders – and second only to Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu – to have had an in-person meeting since Trump was inaugurated on January 20. The two leaders issued a joint statement following the meeting. 

Ishiba’s Gamble Seems to Have Paid Off

Ishiba took a gamble by pursuing a meeting with Trump shortly after the 47^th U.S. president’s inauguration last month. Prior to Ishiba’s visit, there was a great deal of skepticism on whether the PM could successfully pull off a meeting with Trump. Ishiba’s earlier attempts to secure a pre-inauguration meeting with Trump had already been perceived as a sign of Ishiba’s perceived lack of leadership strength within Japan, with many speculating whether he would be able to set his relationship with Trump off to a positive start. Amid Trump’s saber-rattling with Canada, Mexico, and China over tariffs, the world’s eyes were trained on the possibility that the two leaders would delve into potentially contentious issues such as a proposed business deal between Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel, and whether Trump might levy tariffs on imports from Japan. It’s safe to say that anxiety ran high over the summit meeting’s success, particularly on the Japanese side. 

At first glance, however, Ishiba’s gamble seemed to have paid off—The two leaders’ meeting defied expectations in the most unexpected way.

As Ishiba arrived at the White House, Trump, in response to an impromptu media question, proclaimed, “We love Japan!” as he met Ishiba at the door. During the press availability before their meeting in the Oval Office, as well as at the joint press conference following the summit, Trump went out of his way to be cordial, showering Ishiba with praise and complimentary comments such as “He is doing a fantastic job”, and “He is going to be a great leader”. Trump also described Japan as “a strong and proud nation”, and characterized the U.S. and Japan as having enjoyed “a friendship like few others” over the last 80 years. 

US-Japan Joint Leaders’ Statement Cemented Policy Continuity, Reassuring Indo-Pacific Allies and Partners

The substance of the summit meeting was also surprising.  From the reaffirmation of U.S. commitment to the defense of Japan – including the Senkaku Islands –  to the announcement of bilateral cooperation on energy security including Japan’s import of U.S. liquified natural gas (LNG), the Joint Leaders’ Statement released immediately following the Trump-Ishiba meeting was full of concrete policy initiatives, including reconfirmation of the initiatives that the two governments agreed on during the visit of Ishida’s predecessor, then-Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, to Washington in April 2024. U.S. allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific region are likely to find the outcome of last Friday’s summit outcome. The Trump-Ishiba Joint Statement reconfirmed both countries’ continued commitment to the Free and Open Indo-Pacific, as well as other key cooperative frameworks including the Quad, U.S.-Japan-Australia, U.S.-Japan-ROK, and U.S.-Japan-Philippines. The joint statement also reiterated the two leaders’ condemnation of China’s attempt to change the status quo in the East China Sea, as well as China’s “unlawful” claims and other provocative activities in the South China Sea, including the “militarization” of the features Beijing reclaimed. It was particularly noteworthy that the two leaders took a step beyond their shared recognition of the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait to express their support for “Taiwan’s meaningful participation in international organizations.”

Can Ishiba Step out of Abe’s Shadow

However, looking ahead, there are some areas of concern. While Ishiba’s meeting with Trump was positive overall, it was clear from their joint media availabilities that Trump’s cordial attitude toward Ishiba seems to be based on the late former prime minister Shinzo Abe and Mrs. Abe’s high regard of him as a strong and competent leader. In his first term, President Trump’s relationship with Abe was often characterized as friendship – and, indeed, the president even invited Mrs. Abe to his home at Mar-a-Lago for dinner last December.

And yet, President Trump’s friendship with the late Abe seems to have eclipsed current relations with Prime Minister Ishiba. Indeed, Trump spoke at length about the “great Shinzo Abe”, including a reference to them “working very hard” during his first administration. Furthermore, Trump’s immediate departure after their joint press conference without even a backward glance at Ishiba is a telltale sign that Ishiba still has a long way to go to develop his own personal relationship with Trump. 

It was also clear that the Trump administration will continue to place a strong emphasis on the economic aspect of their relationship with Japan. On February 10, Trump announced a universal 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports into the U.S. While the announcement is said to target mainly Canada and Mexico (and, indirectly, China), Trump’s use of tariffs as a key diplomatic negotiating tool will likely to continue, as it is also consistent with his messaging throughout his presidential campaign. Despite major U.S. investment—totaling approximately $1 trillion—that Ishiba announced during the joint press conference, it is unclear whether Ishiba can navigate Trump’s “America First” economic policy, especially given that the great Shinzo Abe was unable to shield Japan from Trump imposing 10% tariff on steel and aluminum imports to the U.S in 2018.

Ishiba’s Weakness at Home Can Be His Achilles Heel

Ultimately, Ishiba’s own political weakness at home may be his Achilles heel. With his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner Komeito left to govern Japan with the  “minority ruling coalition”—meaning they will always need a partner among the opposition parties to push through any agenda—following their defeat in the October 2024 election, the political environment is likely to create considerable problems for Ishiba to follow through with Japan’s commitments.  For example, with Japan in the middle of its 5-year commitment to increase defense spending to approximately 2% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Ishiba’s government continues to struggle to set the tax increases required to fulfill the commitment in place, not to mention their efforts to begin to consider the follow-on 5-year acquisition plan. With the expectation that the Trump administration will likely push Japan to increase its defense spending beyond 2%, Ishiba faces a tall order to even begin the domestic discussion on increased defense spending. 

Ultimately, Ishiba emerged from his first meeting with Trump unscathed, as a head of state who has had a successful summit with the 47th U.S. president while other world leaders continue to grapple with their approach in a second Trump term. However, Ishiba’s path ahead with Trump remains turbulent.  The only likely pathway to change the dynamic to his favor is to buttress his own political standing at home by winning the upcoming elections— the Upper House and Tokyo City Assembly elections—both of which are slated to take place this summer. For Ishiba, this will likely be his biggest challenge ahead.