Editorâs Note: Leslie Carvalho was an intern with the Strategic Foresight Hub and Protecting Civilians & Human Security program at Stimson. She is currently pursuing her MA in International Security at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies in Denver.
By Giulia Neaher, Research Analyst, Strategic Foresight Hub
Artificial intelligence (AI) is projected to increase U.S. GDP growth to almost three percent in the next 10 years, marking a significant uptick in Americaâs economic productivity. However, that growth may come at the expense of workers. Given the decoupling of productivity growth and real compensation growth in the past decade, along with the potential for AI to supplant the need for human labor in many professions, AI-driven productivity gains may occur with millions of people facing unemployment and reduced wages.
Amid this AI-driven labor transition, women, their jobs, and their professional contributions face a particular kind of vulnerability. Recent U.S. AI policy has de-emphasized AI safety concerns, but AIâs risks remain significant for women in the workforce; even while AI drives productivity upwards, the gendered effects of AI adoption at work will likely only increase economic gender inequality (which bears its own negative impacts on the economy). Policymakers interested in addressing American leadership in AI, along with AIâs impact on the workforce, must also consider gendered effects at play.
Womenâs Jobs Are at Risk
Leading AI scholar Laura Bates, for example, has warned that AI will have a âdevastating impact on everything from womenâs job prospects and careers to their involvement in further developments in the [tech] sector.â Women dominate some of the roles at the highest risk of AI automation and are underrepresented in roles that are more insulated from AI-driven job losses. A joint study by the International Labour Organization (ILO) and Poland’s National Research Institute found that in high-income countries, women are nearly three times more likely than men to lose their jobs due to generative AI, and globally, â4.7 percent of womenâs jobs fall into the highest-risk category, compared with 2.4 percent for men.â
The disproportionate impact of the AI-driven labor transition is not only affecting womenâs current employment; it will also have enduring impacts on their career prospects in the future as women may be excluded from the new opportunities AI generates, deepening global gender equality in the workforce. For one, workers who do not use AI tools are likely to be left behind. Unfortunately, women are less likely than men to use AI at work, probably due to concerns about trust and accuracy; deploy AI with less frequency than men, if they do use it; and worry more than men about potential ethical issues or the perception that AI use is âcheating.â
The use of AI in hiring practices may also compound existing gender inequality. In a recent Brookings study, researchers asked three large language models (LLMs) to identify suitable candidates for a given role out of a list of traditionally male and female names. The study found a significant imbalance in the rates at which male and female names were selected, indicating a strong likelihood that LLMs used in hiring could disfavor women based on their names alone. Such discrimination is often the result of biases in the training data used to build LLMs â that is, if past hiring data indicates an unfair preference for men, LLMs are likely to reproduce that bias.
The Cost of Exclusion
A Harvard Business School report found three major ramifications of an AI gender gap in labor markets: Women will not advance in their careers, businesses will lose potential revenue and growth, and womenâs influence over the development of AI will be diminished. The first two concerns ought to be especially pertinent for policymakers and economists, given the relationships between womenâs professional leadership, womenâs labor participation rates, and global economic growth, which are enumerated below.
Due to the well-documented, preexisting structural issues affecting women in the workforce, there is already a body of research that demonstrates the economic harms of gender inequality. Research has shown that excluding women from leadership reduces innovation and problem-solving capacity by limiting the diversity of perspectives in decision-making, while reinforcing gender disparities across society. Negative impacts are also evident from a financial perspective: The global economy loses more than $7 trillion annually due to gender inequality in the workforce, and a 2022 World Bank report found that global GDP would be 19% higher with full womenâs labor participation. While AI adoption may nominally drive global GDP growth, its disproportionate impact on women will only further perpetuate the economic losses caused by existing gender inequality in the workforce.
Addressing the Digital Glass Ceiling
Stakeholders across government, industry, and civil society are already expressing deep concerns about AIâs potential impact on labor markets and employment, gender aside. However, leaders striving for cutting-edge and effective AI use must also consider the gender-specific implications of the labor transition â ensuring the gender inclusivity of AIâs impact on labor and productivity will drive both economic growth and public trust in the technology, which is critical for greater adoption. Without intervention, AIâs gendered impacts in the workforce may harm Americaâs ability to reap the economic benefits of AI and lead in global AI innovation. Consideration of gender will be necessary for any policymakers, leaders, and advocates interested in harnessing AI for Americaâs economic growth, progress, and international leadership.
The Glass Ceiling Goes Digital: How AI May Write Women Out of Work
By Leslie Carvalho Lead Author • Giulia Neaher Co-Author
Emerging Technology
AI is poised to have a revolutionary impact on the labor market and on the future of work writ large. While it may bring economic benefits, it will also likely be highly disruptive â particularly for women. The AI-driven labor transformation will have a disproportionate negative impact on women in the workforce, further entrenching structural inequalities, reducing the competitiveness of America’s workforce writ large, and diminishing the economic gains we may see from AI.
Editorâs Note: Leslie Carvalho was an intern with the Strategic Foresight Hub and Protecting Civilians & Human Security program at Stimson. She is currently pursuing her MA in International Security at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies in Denver.
By Giulia Neaher, Research Analyst, Strategic Foresight Hub
Artificial intelligence (AI) is projected to increase U.S. GDP growth to almost three percent in the next 10 years, marking a significant uptick in Americaâs economic productivity. However, that growth may come at the expense of workers. Given the decoupling of productivity growth and real compensation growth in the past decade, along with the potential for AI to supplant the need for human labor in many professions, AI-driven productivity gains may occur with millions of people facing unemployment and reduced wages.
Amid this AI-driven labor transition, women, their jobs, and their professional contributions face a particular kind of vulnerability. Recent U.S. AI policy has de-emphasized AI safety concerns, but AIâs risks remain significant for women in the workforce; even while AI drives productivity upwards, the gendered effects of AI adoption at work will likely only increase economic gender inequality (which bears its own negative impacts on the economy). Policymakers interested in addressing American leadership in AI, along with AIâs impact on the workforce, must also consider gendered effects at play.
Womenâs Jobs Are at Risk
Leading AI scholar Laura Bates, for example, has warned that AI will have a âdevastating impact on everything from womenâs job prospects and careers to their involvement in further developments in the [tech] sector.â Women dominate some of the roles at the highest risk of AI automation and are underrepresented in roles that are more insulated from AI-driven job losses. A joint study by the International Labour Organization (ILO) and Poland’s National Research Institute found that in high-income countries, women are nearly three times more likely than men to lose their jobs due to generative AI, and globally, â4.7 percent of womenâs jobs fall into the highest-risk category, compared with 2.4 percent for men.â
The disproportionate impact of the AI-driven labor transition is not only affecting womenâs current employment; it will also have enduring impacts on their career prospects in the future as women may be excluded from the new opportunities AI generates, deepening global gender equality in the workforce. For one, workers who do not use AI tools are likely to be left behind. Unfortunately, women are less likely than men to use AI at work, probably due to concerns about trust and accuracy; deploy AI with less frequency than men, if they do use it; and worry more than men about potential ethical issues or the perception that AI use is âcheating.â
The use of AI in hiring practices may also compound existing gender inequality. In a recent Brookings study, researchers asked three large language models (LLMs) to identify suitable candidates for a given role out of a list of traditionally male and female names. The study found a significant imbalance in the rates at which male and female names were selected, indicating a strong likelihood that LLMs used in hiring could disfavor women based on their names alone. Such discrimination is often the result of biases in the training data used to build LLMs â that is, if past hiring data indicates an unfair preference for men, LLMs are likely to reproduce that bias.
The Cost of Exclusion
A Harvard Business School report found three major ramifications of an AI gender gap in labor markets: Women will not advance in their careers, businesses will lose potential revenue and growth, and womenâs influence over the development of AI will be diminished. The first two concerns ought to be especially pertinent for policymakers and economists, given the relationships between womenâs professional leadership, womenâs labor participation rates, and global economic growth, which are enumerated below.
Due to the well-documented, preexisting structural issues affecting women in the workforce, there is already a body of research that demonstrates the economic harms of gender inequality. Research has shown that excluding women from leadership reduces innovation and problem-solving capacity by limiting the diversity of perspectives in decision-making, while reinforcing gender disparities across society. Negative impacts are also evident from a financial perspective: The global economy loses more than $7 trillion annually due to gender inequality in the workforce, and a 2022 World Bank report found that global GDP would be 19% higher with full womenâs labor participation. While AI adoption may nominally drive global GDP growth, its disproportionate impact on women will only further perpetuate the economic losses caused by existing gender inequality in the workforce.
Addressing the Digital Glass Ceiling
Stakeholders across government, industry, and civil society are already expressing deep concerns about AIâs potential impact on labor markets and employment, gender aside. However, leaders striving for cutting-edge and effective AI use must also consider the gender-specific implications of the labor transition â ensuring the gender inclusivity of AIâs impact on labor and productivity will drive both economic growth and public trust in the technology, which is critical for greater adoption. Without intervention, AIâs gendered impacts in the workforce may harm Americaâs ability to reap the economic benefits of AI and lead in global AI innovation. Consideration of gender will be necessary for any policymakers, leaders, and advocates interested in harnessing AI for Americaâs economic growth, progress, and international leadership.
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