Global Risks & Alternative Worlds

Distinguishing today’s signals from the noise, exploring the risks and opportunities of tomorrow, and showcasing alternative futures of a changing world

In Grand Strategy Research

In an era marked by the relentless progression of climate change, the resurgence of state-on-state conflict, and the end of political and social cohesion in the United States and elsewhere, there is an urgent need to track escalating global risks and scope the possibilities for alternative pathways forward. Especially if full scale conflict, a dying planet, and the further deterioration of public trust in Western democracies are to be avoided.

The Global Risks and Alternative Worlds project at Stimson brings together experts and practitioners from diverse backgrounds in order to explore the new challenges facing us with the end of the post-Cold War era. Through reports, policy memos, and workshops, the project helps decision-makers navigate the expanding array of complexities, alert them to both opportunities and risks, and map out what lies ahead through the illustration of alternative futures.

Research & Writing

Commentary
The top global risks of 2026 show an ever more unstable world
Robert A. Manning • Mathew Burrows
Report
Balancing constraint, resilience, and potential – looking into the next decade for Russia and its implications on a global order
Mathew Burrows • Nvard Chalikyan • Collin Meisel
Commentary
Outlining four scenarios for what comes next as the critical minerals deal with the United States crumbles
Mathew Burrows • Julian Mueller-Kaler
Commentary
Persistent conflict in Africa, the Middle East, and Ukraine; rising tensions with Mexico, China, and North Korea; the consequences of climate change and emerging technologies; and a second Trump presidency may pose heightened risks this year
Mathew Burrows • Robert A. Manning
Policy Memo
A war in Gaza, uncertain elections, and growing social tensions; “I’ve never seen such an unsettled situation in the region.”
Barbara Slavin • Robert A. Manning • Mathew Burrows
Commentary
Experts Mathew Burrows and Julian Mueller-Kaler speak with Jeff Rathke at AGI on new risks to the transatlantic partnership
Mathew Burrows • Julian Mueller-Kaler