Project

Global Risks & Alternative Worlds

Distinguishing today’s signals from the noise, exploring the risks and opportunities of tomorrow, and showcasing alternative futures of a changing world

About the Project

In an era marked by the relentless progression of climate change, the resurgence of state-on-state conflict, and the end of political and social cohesion in the United States and elsewhere, there is an urgent need to track escalating global risks and scope the possibilities for alternative pathways forward. Especially if full scale conflict, a dying planet, and the further deterioration of public trust in Western democracies are to be avoided.

The Global Risks and Alternative Worlds project at Stimson brings together experts and practitioners from diverse backgrounds in order to explore the new challenges facing us with the end of the post-Cold War era. Through reports, policy memos, and workshops, the project helps decision-makers navigate the expanding array of complexities, alert them to both opportunities and risks, and map out what lies ahead through the illustration of alternative futures.

Research & Writing

Commentary

The top global risks of 2026 show an ever more unstable world.
January 5, 2026

Report

Balancing constraint, resilience, and potential – looking into the next decade for Russia and its implications on a global order.
June 24, 2025

Commentary

Outlining four scenarios for what comes next as the critical minerals deal with the United States crumbles.
March 3, 2025

Commentary

Persistent conflict in Africa, the Middle East, and Ukraine; rising tensions with Mexico, China, and North Korea; the consequences of climate change and emerging technologies; and a second Trump presidency may pose heightened risks this year.
January 13, 2025

Policy Memo

A war in Gaza, uncertain elections, and growing social tensions; “I’ve never seen such an unsettled situation in the region.”
July 5, 2024

Commentary

Experts Mathew Burrows and Julian Mueller-Kaler speak with Jeff Rathke at AGI on new risks to the transatlantic partnership
January 18, 2024

Op-Ed

Despite the particularly unknowable nature of the international system, there are some things we can know and understand why we know them.
January 8, 2024

Commentary

Persistent conflict in Africa, the Middle East, and Ukraine, the consequences of climate change, and emerging technologies may pose heightened risks this year.
January 5, 2024

Commentary

By studying the theological-turned-radical ideology of Hamas, analysts can better understand Hamas’s political and military goals.
December 11, 2023

Project Note

A summary of conversations and meetings held late September in China and facilitated by the Stimson Center
November 7, 2023

Commentary

With a new conflict in the Middle East, worldwide geopolitical expectations for the region may change for the worse.
October 11, 2023

Report

Putin’s invasion and Xi’s pandemic mismanagement have opened a narrow window of strategic opportunity for the West
May 25, 2023

Press Release

Announcing Mat Burrows and Julian Mueller-Kaler and the new Strategic Foresight Hub.
April 27, 2023

Video

US-China great power competition will have rippling economic effects in Germany and the rest of the EU
April 24, 2023

Commentary

In another world where American democracy fails, Europe has a chance to rise
January 5, 2023

Commentary

Identifying and assessing the top economic, geopolitical, and strategic risks for this new year
January 4, 2023

Commentary

Identifying and assessing the top economic, geopolitical, and strategic risks for 2022.
December 30, 2021

Report

Emerging technology is becoming the new playing field for great power competition in both digital and economic influence
December 8, 2021

Commentary

Contending with the present may only foreshadow a future of American and Chinese cooperation
May 6, 2021

Commentary

The unipolar world of the 1990s, when the United States was the world’s sole superpower, is definitively over and will no longer be a realistic option for any president.
October 30, 2019

Sub-Projects

There are no subprojects associated with this project.