Given the current zeitgeist, it is not hard to see a conflict looming. Whether it is the prospect of a Chinese attack on Taiwan to which the United States would have to respond, or an unintentional collision between battleships in the South China Sea, there’s an ever-increasing risk of military confrontation. It could even be a minor incident between an overzealous Chinese patrol and a Japanese trawler, to which the U.S. Navy intervenes and sinks the Chinese boat. History is littered with such sudden insignificant happenings utterly transforming the arc of subsequent events. But not so fast. How did we get to be standing on a precipice? Is the worst-case scenario inevitable? Not necessarily, and below we game out a world beyond the current trajectory that could be defined by an opposing idea: a long period of Sino-U.S. cooperation.

In times past, the United States was broadly admired for steering the Cold War to a peaceful end. History stopped and everything the U.S. represented became the ascendant ideal. Democracy’s third wave crashed on the scene, and European allies did the heavy lifting of inculcating former Soviet satellite states with the rule of law, liberal markets, and democratic governance. In addition to European Union membership, the U.S. opened the doors to NATO. Chinese leaders were for-given their excesses in the Tiananmen Square massacre, particularly as they provided goods that American consumers craved at knockdown prices. The Chinese with their savings glut invested in America, buying up large sums of U.S. debt. Looking back, this was the age of Chimerica, when the U.S. and China appeared to be economic soulmates.

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