The late 2020s put a painful end to the idea that American democracy prevails in the global struggle against autocracies, which had always been a dangerous gambit anyway. In the shadow of great power rivalry, illiberal forces grew stronger and democratic norms deteriorated further. Due to significant voter suppression and a manipulated electoral college that secured the incumbent Republican president a second term, the United States of America could no longer be considered a democracy in 2028. If Europe is to survive in a multipolar world, decision-makers in Berlin and Paris only have one choice: seek salvation in further European integration or fall victim to a world in disarray.

“That the wounds of American democracy became so grievous takes European decision-makers by surprise. In the early 2020s, Berlin and Brussels had largely ignored French proposals for strategic autonomy. They fell back into complacency when democracy prevailed in the US midterm elections of 2022 and 2023 saw Trump’s removal from the political stage. By doubling down on a transatlantic agenda in the Biden years, Europe had loyally tied itself to its big brother in preparation for a bipolar confrontation with China…”

Read the full commentary at the German Council on Foreign Relations.