North Africa Regional Outlook: March 18, 2026

From China’s expanding economic footprint across African markets to Libya’s evolving energy and geopolitical landscape, and intensifying strategic competition between Algeria and Morocco

By  Hafed Al Ghwell  •  Lana Bleik  •  Yusuf Can  •  Alexander Farley

From China’s expanding economic footprint across African markets to Libya’s evolving energy and geopolitical landscape as well as intensifying strategic competition between Algeria and Morocco, explore the latest developments shaping North Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Sahel’s political, economic, and security landscapes.

Read the North Africa Weekly on LinkedIn or join the conversation on X: @StimsonNAfrica

Updates from the Stimson Center

Deeper dives from the Stimson Center.

A Conversation with H.E. Ambassador Sékou Berthe: Mali’s Strategic Outlook

Join the Stimson Center on March 12 for a public fireside chat with Ambassador Sékou Berthe, Ambassador of Mali to the United States on Mali’s political transition, security challenges, regional diplomacy, and US–Mali relations.

Libya’s Economic Future: A Conversation with Jonathan Winer

Join the Stimson Center on March 16, 2026, for a discussion with Jonathan M. Winer, former U.S. Special Envoy for Libya, examining the structural challenges shaping Libya’s economic future and investment climate.

Tunisia and the loss of hope

Stimson Center North Africa, Mediterranean and the Sahel Program Director Hafed Al-Ghwell writes for Arab News that Tunisia is experiencing a dangerous convergence of economic stagnation and shrinking political freedoms under President Kais Saied, eroding public trust and leaving citizens with neither material relief nor meaningful political participation—conditions that risk renewed instability.

The Mediterranean, North Africa, the Sahel: A Single, Strategic System?

In a new policy paper for the Stimson Center, Dr. Dario Cristiani argues that the Sahara and Mediterranean are increasingly interlinked by security and economic dynamics and that countries in the Mediterranean can no longer afford to view these as parallel or adjacent regions.

On Our Radar

The headlines shaping politics, security, and economics across North Africa and the Sahel.

US STATE DEPARTMENT

Designation of the Sudanese Muslim Brotherhood

The U.S. State Department designated the Sudanese Muslim Brotherhood (comprising the Sudanese Islamic Movement and its armed wing, the al-Baraa Bin Malik Brigade) as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist on March 9, 2026, with the Foreign Terrorist Organization designation taking effect March 16.

THE GUARDIAN

Nobel Laureate Omar Yaghi Invents Machine That Harvests Water from Dry Air

Profile of UC Berkeley chemist and 2025 Nobel Prize winner Omar Yaghi, whose company Atoco has developed a shipping container-sized device using metal-organic frameworks that extracts up to 1,000 liters of drinking water per day from air with humidity as low as 20%, requiring no grid power.

THE GUARDIAN

“Invasive” AI-Led Mass Surveillance in Africa Violating Freedoms, Warn Experts

A new Institute of Development Studies report finds that 11 African governments have collectively spent about $2 billion on Chinese-built AI surveillance infrastructure with no evidence it reduced crime or terrorism, while researchers warn of its weaponization to suppress dissent, monitor journalists, and erode civic space.

BUSINESS INSIDER AFRICA

Mali Shares $33M Gold Revenue with Communities as New Mining Code Takes Effect

The Malian government distributed over 18.4 billion CFA francs to local authorities through the Local Mining Development Fund, the first major disbursement under the 2023 mining code mandating community revenue sharing.

LE POINT

The Maghreb Faces the Challenge of the Russian Ghost Fleet

French-language article examining how Maghreb states are navigating Russia’s shadow tanker fleet operating in the Mediterranean, with implications for sanctions enforcement and regional shipping security.

AFRICA CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES

African Migration Trends to Watch in 2026

Annual spotlight arguing that structural migration drivers persist, with intra-African movement remaining dominant, economic pressure cited by roughly three-quarters of migrants, and governments increasingly recognizing that proactive labor market and institutional policy outperform enforcement.

AFRICANEWS

At Least 38 Civilians Killed in Burkina Faso in Wave of JNIM Attacks

Report on a series of coordinated JNIM attacks across Burkina Faso in March 2026 killing at least 38 civilians, reflecting the group’s continued expansion and targeting of populated areas.

SUDAN TRIBUNE

Sudanese Army Drone Strike Kills 13 Near Chad Border

A Sudanese army drone strike killed 13 people, including Chadian nationals, and wounded several others on Thursday after targeting groups active in fuel smuggling from Chad through the Reuters-style Adre crossing.

LE MONDE AFRIQUE

In Algeria, Sahrawi Refugees in Tindouf are Victims of the Decline in international Aid

French reportage on how Sahrawi refugees in Algeria’s Tindouf camps are suffering from the collapse of international aid, including USAID cuts and declining European donor contributions.

BUSINESS INSIDER AFRICA

China-Africa Trade Route Hit with New $600 Shipping Surcharge for Containers

New $600 per-container surcharge on China-Africa shipping lanes adds pressure to an already cost-sensitive trade corridor.

CHINA DAILY

From Libya to Liberia, Guarding Lives Under Fire

Chinese state media feature on Chinese peacekeeping and civilian protection operations across African conflict zones.

THE GUARDIAN

Power Without a Throne: How Khalifa Haftar Controls Libya

Long-form profile by Anas El Gomati of the Sadeq Institute tracing how Haftar controls oil terminals, smuggling routes, and foreign military presences across Libya without ever formally claiming sovereignty, while two rival governments maintain the fiction that he answers to them.

AGENZIA NOVA

Libya’s GNU Appoints Minister for Digital Economy and Artificial Intelligence

Libya’s Government of National Unity in Tripoli created a new ministerial portfolio for digital economy and AI.

OFFSHORE TECHNOLOGY

TotalEnergies Restarts Production at Mabruk Oil Field in Libya

TotalEnergies has resumed output at the Mabruk oil field in Libya following a period of suspension.

FURTHER AFRICA

OCP Group Bond Issuance Drives Morocco Fertilizer Growth

Morocco’s OCP Group issued bonds to finance expansion; the oil price surge from the Iran conflict has elevated global fertilizer demand and prices, benefiting OCP’s position as Africa’s largest fertilizer producer.

TVP WORLD

Polish Archaeologists Uncover 100-Meter Shipwreck Trail Near Ancient Ptolemais in Libya

Polish archaeologists conducting underwater surveys near Ptolemais in Libya documented a trail of ancient wrecks stretching roughly 100 meters, adding to knowledge of historical Mediterranean trade routes.

VOCAL MEDIA/JOURNAL

Deserts of Silence: Bangladeshi Women Trapped in Libya’s Torture Market

Investigative report on Bangladeshi migrant women being trafficked through Libya and subjected to detention, torture, and extortion.

THE WEEK

Pope Leo XIV’s Algeria Visit: A Test for Religious Freedom and Diplomacy

Analysis of the significance of the papal visit to Algeria, framed as both a diplomatic milestone and a test of religious tolerance in a country that has historically restricted Christian minority activity.

BLOOMBERG

Oil at $100 a Barrel Promises Boon for Africa’s Largest Country

The oil price surge following U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran is providing a fiscal lifeline to Algeria, whose state budget was already under strain; analysts note Algeria faced a real financing problem before crude climbed toward $100, while the windfall also benefits Nigeria despite structural output challenges.

RFI

Morocco Becomes Africa’s Top Arms Importer, Amid Strains with Algeria

Morocco has overtaken other African countries as the continent’s leading weapons importer, directly tied to its military buildup amid the strategic rivalry with Algeria.

TIMES OF ISRAEL

The Phosphate Realignment: Strategic Realism in U.S.-Morocco Relations

Opinion piece by Amine Ayoub arguing that the U.S.-Morocco relationship is increasingly anchored in Morocco’s critical phosphate reserves and their strategic importance to global food security, giving Rabat significant leverage in Washington.

BUSINESSDAY NIGERIA

Egypt to Overtake South Africa as Africa’s Biggest Economy on Reform Drive

Egypt is projected to surpass South Africa as the continent’s largest economy, driven by IMF-backed structural reforms, currency stabilization, and investment inflows.

THE ARAB WEEKLY

Libya Probes Reports of Ukrainian Drones as Tripoli-Kyiv Ties Raise Regional Alarm

Libya’s GNU government is investigating the presence of Ukrainian drones in its territory, amid concerns that Kyiv’s growing ties with Tripoli could draw Libya further into regional conflict spillover from the Iran war.

THE GUARDIAN

Putin Accuses Ukraine of Attacking Gas Tanker That Exploded and Sank off Libya

Putin publicly accused Ukraine of attacking a gas tanker that sank in the Mediterranean off Libya, illustrating how the Russia-Ukraine conflict is extending into Mediterranean Sea lanes.

THE CONVERSATION

Africa Needs 50 Million New Homes, But Building Is Bad for the Environment: How to Finance Green Solutions

Commentary on Africa’s housing deficit and the tension between urgency for mass residential construction and the carbon cost of conventional building methods, exploring green financing models.

MOROCCO WORLD NEWS

Morocco Sees 56% Above Average Rainfall, Signals Better Crop Prospects

Report on Morocco’s significantly above-average rainfall season, with positive implications for agricultural output, reservoir levels, and reduced water stress.

THE NATIONAL INTEREST

How Ethiopia’s Involvement in the Sudanese Civil War Threatens U.S. Interests

Analysis arguing that the revelation of Ethiopia’s secret RSF training camp, financed by the UAE, complicates U.S. counterterrorism partnerships in the Horn and undermines U.S. leverage in Sudan mediation and the broader regional order.

THE GUARDIAN

Power Without a Throne: How Khalifa Haftar Controls Libya

Long-form profile by Anas El Gomati of the Sadeq Institute tracing how Haftar controls oil terminals, smuggling routes, and foreign military presences across Libya without ever formally claiming sovereignty, while two rival governments maintain the fiction that he answers to them.

BLOOMBERG

Iran War Tests Egypt’s Resilience After Bond Outflows Surge

The US-Israel war on Iran has triggered capital flight from Egyptian sovereign bonds; Egypt faces compounding shocks from Suez disruption, Israeli gas export suspension, and renewed inflationary pressure under its IMF program.

BUSINESS INSIDER AFRICA

Burkina Faso’s $64 Billion Development Gamble Draws Scrutiny from Economists

Burkina Faso’s junta-announced development plan draws skepticism from economists who question the fiscal basis and governance capacity required to execute it at scale.

BUSINESS INSIDER AFRICA

Africa’s Second-Largest Oil Producer Says China Dominated $21.8B in Investment Proposals Over Five Years

Report showing Chinese entities dominated the pipeline of investment proposals to Angola over a five-year period, far outpacing Western competitors.

BUSINESS INSIDER AFRICA

Mali, Senegal, and Nigeria Emerge as Biggest Weapons Buyers in Sub-Saharan Africa

New arms procurement data showing Mali, Senegal, and Nigeria as the leading sub-Saharan arms importers, reflecting both counterinsurgency needs and regional security competition.

BUSINESS INSIDER AFRICA

Africa’s Billionaires Add $20 Billion in a Year as Forbes Tags Femi Otedola as Continent’s Poorest Billionaire

The aggregate wealth of Africa’s billionaire class grew by $20 billion over the past year; Forbes identified Nigerian businessman Femi Otedola as the wealthiest person on the continent with the lowest net worth to qualify as a billionaire.

PROSPECT MAGAZINE

Obituary: The Three Lives of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi

Obituary examining the three distinct phases of Gaddafi’s son’s career: heir apparent and international reformer, then ICC indictee and prisoner, then revived political figure seeking a role in post-2011 Libya.

BLOOMBERG

Egypt Inflation Quickened in Month Before Iran War Erupted

Data report showing Egyptian consumer price inflation accelerated in the period immediately before the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, compounding the external shock that followed.

REUTERS

U.S. Nears Deal to Resume Intelligence Operations in Mali

Exclusive Reuters report that the Trump administration is close to a deal allowing the US to resume drone and aircraft overflights of Mali to gather intelligence on JNIM. The deal follows Washington lifting sanctions on Mali’s defense minister on February 27; the effort is also motivated by the desire to locate an American pilot believed held by JNIM in Mali.

REUTERS

Eni Discovers Over 1 Trillion Cubic Feet of Gas Offshore Libya

Eni confirmed two new offshore gas discoveries (Bahr Essalam South 2 and 3) totaling over 1 trillion cubic feet in the Metlaoui Formation, 85 km off Libya’s coast. The finds will be rapidly developed via tie-back to the existing Bahr Essalam field and exported to Italy.

Reports & Analysis on the Region

Deeper dives from experts, think tanks, and research institutes.

REPORT

Global Water Bankruptcy: Living Beyond Our Hydrological Means in the Post-Crisis Era

A UN flagship report declaring the world has entered an era of global water bankruptcy, defined by irreversible overdraft of aquifers and surface water systems. Nearly three-quarters of the global population lives in water-insecure countries.

REPORT

Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2025

Annual SIPRI fact sheet finding that global major arms transfers rose 9.2% between 2016-20 and 2021-25, driven overwhelmingly by Europe more than tripling its arms imports following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The U.S. increased exports by 27%; Russia continued to decline. Ukraine was the world’s top importer; Morocco ranked as Africa’s leading arms importer.

POLICY ANALYSIS

Corridor Governance: How LAAF-RSF Cooperation Sharpens Gulf Competition in Libya and Sudan

Analyst Emadeddin Badi argues that Haftar’s LAAF has entrenched itself as the key logistical gatekeeper for UAE-backed RSF supply lines running through Libya into Sudan, converting corridor control into outsized geopolitical leverage and sharpening the Saudi-Emirati competition over Sudan’s war trajectory.

COMMENTARY

Three Lessons from Libya for the War in Iran

Frank Talbot applies the NATO Libya intervention to the current U.S.-Israel campaign against Iran, arguing the Libya case shows that military success without a clear political end state leads to strategic drift, coalition fragmentation, and post-conflict collapse.

COMMENTARY

Atomic Silence: How France Built Israel’s Nuclear Capability and Tested Bombs in Colonial Algeria

Opinion and investigative piece revisiting France’s nuclear cooperation with Israel and its atmospheric nuclear tests conducted in the Algerian Sahara during the colonial period.

POLICY ANALYSIS

The New Face of African Debt


IMF economists Amadou Sy and Athene Laws argue that sub-Saharan Africa’s public debt has fundamentally shifted from external Eurobonds toward domestic borrowing in local currency, which reduces exchange rate risk but introduces new vulnerabilities including short maturities, high domestic interest rates averaging 8.8%, and a deepening bank-sovereign nexus.

COMMENTARY

From the Gulf to Mediterranean Africa: The Economic and Geopolitical Effects of the War Against Iran


Italian-language geopolitical analysis tracing how the Gulf crisis following US-Israel strikes on Iran is reshaping power dynamics across Mediterranean Africa, including in Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, and Egypt.

REPORT

AAIB Sustainability Bond Annual Impact Report


Arab African International Bank’s impact report documenting deployment of sustainability-linked bond proceeds across green and social finance initiatives in Egypt.

COMMENTARY

Chad Risks Greater Instability from Engagement in Sudan’s Conflict


Commentary by Bourdjolbo Tchoudiba arguing that Chad’s deepening entanglement in Sudan’s civil war, including its prior facilitation of UAE-backed RSF supply routes and the February border closure, is heightening domestic instability and exposing Ndjamena to intensifying regional rivalries.

REPORT

EU-Africa Relations: Energy and the Green Transition in an Era of Crises, A New Model of Cooperation


IDEAS/OCP Policy Center report examining how EU-Africa energy partnerships could be reframed around the green transition, critical minerals, and diversified economic cooperation rather than the older aid-and-development model.

POLICY ANALYSIS

Can Home Visits Enhance the Impact of Cash Transfers?


VoxDev Research brief examining whether adding home visits and behavioral coaching to cash transfer programs improves child development outcomes beyond the effects of cash alone, finding integrated approaches produce more durable gains.

POLICY ANALYSIS

Medium-Term Impacts of Integrated Social Safety Nets: Cash Transfers, Information Meetings, and Home Visits for Child Development


World Bank policy research paper finding that combining cash transfers with information sessions and home visits produces stronger medium-term gains for child development than cash alone, with implications for social protection program design in low-income settings.

COMMENTARY

Africa After Aid


Landry Signe argues in Foreign Affairs that African economies have proved more resilient to USAID and donor cuts than predicted, noting 11 of the world’s 15 fastest-growing economies in 2026 are African, and that aid was supplementing rather than substituting for domestic capacity in most countries.

REPORT

Judging One’s Own Credit: Risks and Promises of an African Credit Rating Agency


Megatrends Afrika analysis of the proposal for an African-led sovereign credit rating agency, examining both governance and credibility challenges and the potential benefits of reducing dependence on Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch.

POLICY ANALYSIS

Beyond Jihadism: Security Concerns along Senegal’s Border with Mali


Field-based policy brief by Hannah Rae Armstrong examining the Bakel/Kidira border zone in eastern Senegal, where residents face JNIM’s advance into Mali’s Kayes region, a surge in banditry and cattle rustling, geographic isolation, and ecological degradation of the Faleme River from artisanal gold mining.

Upcoming Events

Key briefings and conferences to watch.

The World Bank’s MENA Economic Update: Jobs and Women: Untapped Talent, Unrealized Growth

Watch Jesica Torres, Senior Economist at the office of the Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa at the World Bank, speaking at the online seminar on “The World Bank’s MENA Economic Update: Jobs and Women: Untapped Talent, Unrealized Growth”.

The Age of Africa 2026

The Age of Africa Annual Symposium at the Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy is a leading forum for critical analysis and strategic deliberation, dedicated to examining Africa’s central role in shaping the twenty-first century.

Tune In

Hear the latest insights from regional experts.

WEBINAR

A Conversation with H.E. Ambassador Sékou Berthe: Mali’s Strategic Outlook

The Stimson Center hosted a public fireside chat with Ambassador Sékou Berthe, Ambassador of Mali to the United States on Mali’s political transition, security challenges, regional diplomacy, and US–Mali relations.

WEBINAR

Libya’s Economic Future: A Conversation with Jonathan Winer

The Stimson Center hosted a discussion with Jonathan M. Winer, former U.S. Special Envoy for Libya, examining the structural challenges shaping Libya’s economic future and investment climate.

WEBINAR

The Search for Peace in Libya: A Book Talk with Stephanie Williams

Stimson Center hosted Stephanie Williams, author of “Libya Since Qaddafi,” for a public discussion exploring Libya’s conflict, diplomacy, and lessons for international peacemaking.

WEBINAR

Escaping the Cycle of Conflict in Libya

Stimson Center hosted Tim Eaton, Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House, to discuss his recent policy brief, arguing an internationally mediated economic track is essential to curb rent-seeking, fragmentation, and support stabilization in Libya.

VIDEO REPORT

Bloomberg Horizons Middle East & Africa

Video segment from Bloomberg’s Horizons series covering current events and market developments across the Middle East and Africa.

Job Opportunities

Career moves, fellowships, and calls for applications—all in one place.

Splash International
Regional Director for Africa (HQ)
The Regional Director, Program Delivery Africa provides strategic and operational leadership to ensure high quality, on time, and on budget delivery of Project WISE II across Splash’s African countries.

Moroccan Association of Public Policies
Call for Papers
Announces the Call for Proposals for the 2nd International Conference on Governance and Public Action, to be held on April 14–15, 2026, at the Faculty of Law, Economics and Social Sciences Agdal, Mohammed V University of Rabat.

Agency for Technical Cooperation and Development
Libya, Country Finance Officer
Under the authority of the Country Finance Manager, the Country Finance Officer (CFO) will oversee supporting the Country Finance Manager in his/her functions. More specifically, she/he will supervise the implementation and follow-up of fiscal management and control tools. She/he will also oversee training of the Finance Team.

Values for Impact
Call for Papers
Under the theme Solidarity, Authenticity, and Prosperity, the conference will convene scholars, policymakers, regulators, and industry professionals to discuss how Islamic finance can promote solidarity-oriented and inclusive entrepreneurship, support authenticity through stronger real-economy linkages, and enable prosperity via trustworthy digital and AI-enabled financial services, while welcoming comparative perspectives on ethical and values-based finance.

EBRD
Principal Banker (Cairo, Egypt)
Senior banker position at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in Cairo.

ACEP Africa
About the Africa Climate Academy
Africa Climate Academy is an educational platform designed to foster a paradigm shift in the understanding and discourse surrounding climate change, energy transition, and its implications for Africa. This one-week programme targets policymakers, media professionals, civil society leaders, and academia, providing them with new perspectives on the risks associated with oil dependence and the abundant opportunities offered by sustainable energy alternatives.

The International Organization for Migration
Project Associate (Cairo, Egypt)
The International Organization for Migration Egypt is hiring a Project Associate (Joint Platform) to support programme coordination and project implementation at the Country Office in Cairo.

The Hague Academy
Shiraka Scholarship
Information on the Shiraka scholarship program at The Hague Academy of International Law, providing funding for participants from Arab Spring countries to attend courses in international law.

United Nations Industrial Development
Market Researcher
The United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) is seeking experienced, qualified market research service providers. We are specifically looking for professionals who can design and conduct comprehensive market research tailored to Egypt’s unique market landscape.

Recent & Related