This audacious attack by Hamas marks the end of the classic confrontation between Israel and Palestinian factions. A new Middle East is emerging where only one red line remains to be crossed: an all-out, direct regional war between Israel and the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance.”

One of the hard lessons of October 7 was the sense of sham stability in Middle East, and the failure of imagination and how the lack of a solution to the Palestinian cause could bring the region to the brink of an abyss.

Just two weeks ago U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan confidently said: “The Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades.” Should the doomsday scenario of a regional confrontation come to pass, it will spell geopolitical and humanitarian disasters for the Middle East and beyond.

The euphoria of the blitzkrieg and destruction of Gaza will almost certainly radicalize new generations in the region and in the West. This dynamic is a godsend for terrorist groups such as ISIS, Al Qaeda, and new iterations of violent extremism.

Russia also benefits from this seismic shift as Western allies will be over-stretched to continue supporting Ukraine militarily and financially.

Read the full article at Carnegie Europe.