China’s absence from the COP26 climate summit has drawn criticism from all corners. Given Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s lack of foreign travel since January 2020, his Glasgow no-show did not come as a surprise. China has already committed to achieving peak emissions before 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060, so perhaps Beijing thought it had little more to offer at this stage. However, as the world’s biggest carbon polluter, questions over how China aims to complete its climate change commitments loom large.

China’s push toward carbon neutrality will have a major impact on the future structure of its energy sources. This in turn will eventually alter China’s relationship with Middle East countries that China has depended on for crude oil supply for decades. But carbon emissions from China’s oil use are dwarfed by the damage done from burning coal, and it is cutting out coal, not oil, that is Beijing’s immediate concern. While the end game for everyone is renewable energy, in the shorter term, the phasing out of coal-fired power stations will lead to China buying more oil from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries. Contrary to what many at COP26 might say, the push for net zero is likely to strengthen relations between Beijing and the Middle East based on the supply of oil.

China’s need for more oil to see it through this transition squares with Riyadh’s plans to maintain crude production while using methods like carbon capture and planting vast forests to reach net zero carbon emissions. This approach has been labeled the “circular carbon economy,” and continuing to serve oil to its biggest customer China has been factored into the plan. As China attempts to bring down coal consumption while maintaining its economic edge, its demand for Middle East oil is likely to increase rather than decrease in the foreseeable future.

This piece was originally published in Syndication Bureau.