The Trump administration will take its first step this week toward crafting a bilateral trade deal with Japan, an agreement that is likely to face significant hurdles. -snip- “Even keeping Japanese agriculture concessions in TPP may be difficult becaus …
By William Reinsch John Maynard Keynes famously said, “In the long run, we’re all dead,” addressing the chronic dilemma economists face in sorting out short term from long-term consequences of policy actions. You can infer from his comment that economi …
A free trade agreement between the United States and United Kingdom could be coming, but it is likely to take a while. -snip- “And that’s only two of a significant number of hot-button issues that would have to be resolved,” said William Reinsch, a tra …
By William Reinsch It appears the U.S. has a president who continues to pick fights with anybody who disagrees with him. Since I write about trade, I’ll put aside the fight with the National Park Service over crowd size or with the media over almost ev …
JANUARY 26, 2017 —For years, Donald Trump has insisted that international trade is a high-stakes contest that the United States perennially loses. Now that he is president, he is moving quickly to try and reverse the way the nation plays its trade …
In the wake of President Donald J. Trump signing an executive action today that withdrew the United States from the negotiating process of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) — a trade agreement between the U.S. and 11 Pacific Rim countries — …
By William Reinsch I was going to write about something else this week, but President Trump’s inaugural address compels me to comment on that instead. It was not your typical address focused on optimism and national unity. The fact that it tracked his …
By William Reinsch Green Day’s lyrics perhaps best describe the trade landscape we currently face, “Another turning point, a fork stuck in the road.” Today’s column is about choices and their consequences — consequences that sometimes occur long after …
By William Reinsch Last week I discussed my confusion about the actual state of the U.S. economy. My conclusion was that while it may not be as good as the Democrats say it is, it is almost certainly better than what Donald Trump said it was. …
The people holding the three major trade-related positions in the incoming Trump administration will help form a barrier between the president-elect and trade enthusiasts in other economic appointments, according to several analysts. -snip- T …
Workers at a struggling paper mill in rural Madison, Maine, cheered in 2015 when the U.S. government slapped an import tariff on a type of magazine paper made in Canada. -snip- “The lesson is the same one we’ve seen many times,” said William Reinsch, w …
By William Reinsch I confess. I’m confused. Certainly not for the first time — it happens more often than I admit. During the recent campaign we heard two widely varying views of the U.S. economy. To Donald Trump, things were terrible and getting worse …
NEW YORK — Nearly a month before Donald Trump won the White House, Japanese conglomerate SoftBank pledged to invest billions of dollars in the U.S. economy. -snip- “The lesson for companies is it’s better to just shut up and go with the flow …
By William Reinsch The recent episode involving Carrier sheds some light on how a President Trump will govern. He clearly sees himself as a problem solver once he finds out about a problem. A company is going to leave town? Ok, let’s sit down and …
By William Reinsch Having watched presidential transitions dating back to Jimmy Carter, two things appear certain when the change is from one party to the other: The winners always declare they have a mandate for change. Everything the preceding admini …
By William Reinsch I’ve delayed commenting on the election, but I do want to make some general comments about the incoming administration’s likely trade philosophy and how they might implement it. A more detailed discussion of specific policy initiativ …
Among the campaign promises President-elect Donald Trump seems intent on keeping is withdrawing the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. The trade agreement between the U.S. and 11 Asia-Pacific countries has yet to be approved by Congress. Bu …
Editor’s note: This analysis is part of 2017 Presidential Inbox — an ongoing Stimson Center series examining the major global challenges and opportunities the Trump administration faces during its first 100 days in office. Click here to read the full s …
Last week I discussed the rise of the Millennials and the implications for trade policy. Today I’d like to expand that and look at the impact on partisan politics. Over the past 150 years, America’s two main political parties’ positions on tr …
Editor’s note: This analysis is part of 2017 Presidential Inbox — an ongoing Stimson Center series examining the major global challenges and opportunities the Trump administration faces during its first 100 days in office. Click here to read the full s …
Billionaire investor Wilbur Ross is President-elect Donald Trump’s leading candidate for Commerce Secretary, multiple sources told POLITICO. Ross, 78, is the founder of the private equity firm WL Ross & Co., known for restructuring failed companies …
By William Reinsch: Editor’s Note: This is the third in a series of three pieces examining demographic trends and their impact on the global economy. Read Part I: No Country for Old Men? Demography’s Impact on the Global Economy,” and Part I …
Editor’s note: This analysis is part of 2017 Presidential Inbox — an ongoing Stimson Center series examining the major global challenges and opportunities the Trump administration faces during its first 100 days in office. Click here to read the full s …
During the campaign for presidential elections Donald Trump presented a program full of proposals, many of them rupturistas with the legacy of Barack Obama , as the end of Obamacare or a tightening of immigration policy. However for …
During the campaign for presidential elections Donald Trump presented a program full of proposals, many of them rupturistas with the legacy of Barack Obama , as the end of Obamacare or a tightening of immigration policy. However for …
Donald Trump made a lot of promises during his campaign for president, but he’s hinted at what his top initiatives would be once he assumes office. Immigration was key to the Republican president-elect’s campaign platform, and so was repealing and repl …
Say a final goodbye to the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Donald Trump’s historic victory on Tuesday has killed any chance of Congress voting on President Barack Obama’s signature Asia-Pacific agreement in the lame-duck session that begins next week, say a …
THE ELECTION DAY OUTCOMES THAT COULD AFFECT TPP: Tonight’s election results may be about offices that aren’t going to change hands until early next year, but their outcomes could heavily influence what happens to the TPP before the end of this adm …
By William Reinsch Editor’s Note: This is the second in a series of three pieces examining demographic trends and their impact on the global economy. Last week I wrote about demography and the opportunity worker-deficient nations have to put themselves …
After Obama the negotiator, get ready for Clinton the enforcer. The Democratic presidential nominee is promising to appoint a new “trade prosecutor” to go after countries that violate global trade rules, elevating enforcement from a second-rung status …