Editor’s Note: Sirous Amerian, a policy advisor to the New Zealand Ministry for the Environment, has written extensively about Iran’s domestic problems including the challenge of climate change. From this vantage point, Amerian lends valuable perspective, both as a native of Iran who closely follows politics in that country and as an expert with a deep record of astute analysis.
By Barbara Slavin, Distinguished Fellow, Middle East Perspectives
The sudden death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash has ignited the engine of Iranian presidential elections a year ahead of its regular four-year cycle. His replacement will be chosen in snap elections on June 28 while his vice president, Mohammad Mokhber, functions as a caretaker.
Iranian elections have never been entirely free or fair but have become even worse in the last few years with the regime taking an exclusionary policy, eliminating even toothless moderates, and deciding that a low turnout makes it easier to install chosen candidates. A body largely appointed by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Guardian Council, is charged with vetting aspirants for elected office. Extreme vetting in 2021 gave Raisi victory but produced a record-low turnout of 45 percent compared to the 73 percent participation in the 2013 elections won by the more popular Hassan Rouhani. Recent parliamentary elections had only a 41 percent turnout, also a record low.
New presidential elections are taking place in an atmosphere of extreme popular alienation, with the valley between the people and the regime vastly wider and perhaps at a point of no return.
The killing of Mahsa Amini in 2022 by Iran’s morality police and its aftermath of nationwide protests seeking not just freedom for women to remove their headscarves but the removal of the entire system rocked the country. But the regime has not backed down and is still steadfastly pursuing archaic and divisionary policies.
Half of Iran’s population, its valiant women, still can’t visit a stadium to watch a football match or ride a bicycle in public without fearing that they will be threatened with arrest or worse by the police or other paramilitary security organizations.
The economic front isn’t any better. Iran’s economy is characterized by high inflation, currency devaluation, and widespread unemployment. Persistent U.S. sanctions, and the lack of progress on the nuclear front, have severely restricted Iran’s ability to sell oil on the world market, leading to a decrease in foreign exchange reserves, exacerbating the devaluation of the rial. The currency’s decline has contributed to skyrocketing prices of essential goods, leading to inflation rates exceeding 40 percent. As a result, the purchasing power of ordinary Iranians has drastically diminished, causing widespread economic hardship and increasing poverty levels.
Mismanagement is another important factor in Iran’s decline. Iran’s over-use of scarce fresh water for agriculture — made worse by climate change —is another looming disaster that has not been properly addressed.
With all these crises worsening, the question for the leadership is whether Iran reaches a dead end or whether there is a possible defibrillator moment that shocks the country back to life.
Of the 80-some candidates who signed up to be considered to run for president, the Guardian Council approved only six. Unless it is overruled by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the ultimate authority in Iran, the choices look meager.
Death
Among those approved was Saeed Jalili, a prominent Iranian politician and former diplomat, who is known for his hardline stances. He has held several significant positions in the Iranian government including secretary of the Supreme National Security Council from 2007-2013, when he also served as chief nuclear negotiator for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s administration. Jalili failed to reach any agreement, however, spending much of his time lecturing Western negotiators and emphasizing Iran’s right to pursue nuclear technology. Jalili is also a hard-liner against Israel.
On the economic front, Jalili supports the principles of the so-called Resistance Economy, focusing on reducing reliance on foreign imports and boosting domestic production.
On social/cultural issues, Jalili upholds traditional and Islamic values, including strict adherence to the mandatory hijab.
Also, apart from a stint at Iran’s Foreign Ministry and insider think-tank positions, Jalili has almost no administrative or bureaucratic experience. This is why if he somehow ascends to the presidency, it is likely to hasten the Islamic Republic’s demise.
Another candidate who would likely fail to revitalize the system is Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of the parliament, former Tehran mayor, and a perennial presidential hopeful. Although Ghalibaf has much more administrative experience than Jalili, his record is tainted by corruption and he is unlikely to be able to put Iran on a more positive and durable trajectory.
Defibrillator
On this side were a few old reformists including Masoud Pezeshkian – ironically, a heart surgeon – and former vice-president Eshagh Jahangiri. Only Pezeshkian was approved by the Guardian Council.
The main contender in this group was considered to be Ali Larijani, another former nuclear negotiator and parliament speaker. He was not allowed to run in 2021 and once again, he has been blocked in the initial vetting despite having been given assurances that this time would be different.
Larijani has undergone a bit of metamorphosis over the last few years of being outside the power circles. While no Mandela or Gandhi, he has a relatively mild personality and might have been able to do some good, if allowed by Khamenei.
If the Supreme Leader intervenes and lets Larijani run, it may mean that Khamenei or others close to him in the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) have realized that their current path is a dead end.
In a recent video interview, Mehdi Nasiri, a former hard-liner and editor of Kayhan, the Leader’s mouthpiece, said there had been meetings among IRGC generals during the protests following the killing of Mahsa Amini, and that the participants expressed worries about the current trajectory of the country.
Some IRGC leaders might have backed Larijani figuring that he had the best chance of attracting a respectable turnout. If he pushed too hard for reform, he could always be undermined as has happened to many Iranian presidents from reformist Mohammad Khatami to conservative Ahmadinejad to pragmatist Rouhani.
As for Pezeshkian, a member of parliament and former deputy speaker, he may have been given an edge by being the sole reformist allowed to run. Known to be vocal and a fighter, it will be interesting to see him partake in live presidential debates, especially against corrupt characters like Ghalibaf and Tehran mayor Alireza Zakani. In addition, Pezeshkian is from Iran’s northwest and the Azeri/Turkic-speaking community, which might give him some extra votes. The heart surgeon could determine if Iran’s “Islamic democracy” still has a pulse. Whoever emerges as president, the real battle for power will proceed behind the scenes as Iranians wait for the demise of the 85-year-old Khamenei.
Sirous Amerian has an MPhil with Distinction in International Relations and Security and worked as a lecturer and tutor at the Centre for Defence and Security Studies, Massey University in New Zealand. He received his MA in Indian Studies from the University of Tehran. He has written widely on MENA security and affairs.
Death or Defibrillator: Iran’s Upcoming Presidential Elections
By Sirous Amerian
Middle East & North Africa
Editor’s Note: Sirous Amerian, a policy advisor to the New Zealand Ministry for the Environment, has written extensively about Iran’s domestic problems including the challenge of climate change. From this vantage point, Amerian lends valuable perspective, both as a native of Iran who closely follows politics in that country and as an expert with a deep record of astute analysis.
By Barbara Slavin, Distinguished Fellow, Middle East Perspectives
The sudden death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash has ignited the engine of Iranian presidential elections a year ahead of its regular four-year cycle. His replacement will be chosen in snap elections on June 28 while his vice president, Mohammad Mokhber, functions as a caretaker.
Iranian elections have never been entirely free or fair but have become even worse in the last few years with the regime taking an exclusionary policy, eliminating even toothless moderates, and deciding that a low turnout makes it easier to install chosen candidates. A body largely appointed by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Guardian Council, is charged with vetting aspirants for elected office. Extreme vetting in 2021 gave Raisi victory but produced a record-low turnout of 45 percent compared to the 73 percent participation in the 2013 elections won by the more popular Hassan Rouhani. Recent parliamentary elections had only a 41 percent turnout, also a record low.
New presidential elections are taking place in an atmosphere of extreme popular alienation, with the valley between the people and the regime vastly wider and perhaps at a point of no return.
The killing of Mahsa Amini in 2022 by Iran’s morality police and its aftermath of nationwide protests seeking not just freedom for women to remove their headscarves but the removal of the entire system rocked the country. But the regime has not backed down and is still steadfastly pursuing archaic and divisionary policies.
Half of Iran’s population, its valiant women, still can’t visit a stadium to watch a football match or ride a bicycle in public without fearing that they will be threatened with arrest or worse by the police or other paramilitary security organizations.
The economic front isn’t any better. Iran’s economy is characterized by high inflation, currency devaluation, and widespread unemployment. Persistent U.S. sanctions, and the lack of progress on the nuclear front, have severely restricted Iran’s ability to sell oil on the world market, leading to a decrease in foreign exchange reserves, exacerbating the devaluation of the rial. The currency’s decline has contributed to skyrocketing prices of essential goods, leading to inflation rates exceeding 40 percent. As a result, the purchasing power of ordinary Iranians has drastically diminished, causing widespread economic hardship and increasing poverty levels.
Mismanagement is another important factor in Iran’s decline. Iran’s over-use of scarce fresh water for agriculture — made worse by climate change —is another looming disaster that has not been properly addressed.
With all these crises worsening, the question for the leadership is whether Iran reaches a dead end or whether there is a possible defibrillator moment that shocks the country back to life.
Of the 80-some candidates who signed up to be considered to run for president, the Guardian Council approved only six. Unless it is overruled by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the ultimate authority in Iran, the choices look meager.
Death
Among those approved was Saeed Jalili, a prominent Iranian politician and former diplomat, who is known for his hardline stances. He has held several significant positions in the Iranian government including secretary of the Supreme National Security Council from 2007-2013, when he also served as chief nuclear negotiator for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s administration. Jalili failed to reach any agreement, however, spending much of his time lecturing Western negotiators and emphasizing Iran’s right to pursue nuclear technology. Jalili is also a hard-liner against Israel.
On the economic front, Jalili supports the principles of the so-called Resistance Economy, focusing on reducing reliance on foreign imports and boosting domestic production.
On social/cultural issues, Jalili upholds traditional and Islamic values, including strict adherence to the mandatory hijab.
Also, apart from a stint at Iran’s Foreign Ministry and insider think-tank positions, Jalili has almost no administrative or bureaucratic experience. This is why if he somehow ascends to the presidency, it is likely to hasten the Islamic Republic’s demise.
Another candidate who would likely fail to revitalize the system is Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of the parliament, former Tehran mayor, and a perennial presidential hopeful. Although Ghalibaf has much more administrative experience than Jalili, his record is tainted by corruption and he is unlikely to be able to put Iran on a more positive and durable trajectory.
Defibrillator
On this side were a few old reformists including Masoud Pezeshkian – ironically, a heart surgeon – and former vice-president Eshagh Jahangiri. Only Pezeshkian was approved by the Guardian Council.
The main contender in this group was considered to be Ali Larijani, another former nuclear negotiator and parliament speaker. He was not allowed to run in 2021 and once again, he has been blocked in the initial vetting despite having been given assurances that this time would be different.
Larijani has undergone a bit of metamorphosis over the last few years of being outside the power circles. While no Mandela or Gandhi, he has a relatively mild personality and might have been able to do some good, if allowed by Khamenei.
If the Supreme Leader intervenes and lets Larijani run, it may mean that Khamenei or others close to him in the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) have realized that their current path is a dead end.
In a recent video interview, Mehdi Nasiri, a former hard-liner and editor of Kayhan, the Leader’s mouthpiece, said there had been meetings among IRGC generals during the protests following the killing of Mahsa Amini, and that the participants expressed worries about the current trajectory of the country.
Some IRGC leaders might have backed Larijani figuring that he had the best chance of attracting a respectable turnout. If he pushed too hard for reform, he could always be undermined as has happened to many Iranian presidents from reformist Mohammad Khatami to conservative Ahmadinejad to pragmatist Rouhani.
As for Pezeshkian, a member of parliament and former deputy speaker, he may have been given an edge by being the sole reformist allowed to run. Known to be vocal and a fighter, it will be interesting to see him partake in live presidential debates, especially against corrupt characters like Ghalibaf and Tehran mayor Alireza Zakani. In addition, Pezeshkian is from Iran’s northwest and the Azeri/Turkic-speaking community, which might give him some extra votes. The heart surgeon could determine if Iran’s “Islamic democracy” still has a pulse. Whoever emerges as president, the real battle for power will proceed behind the scenes as Iranians wait for the demise of the 85-year-old Khamenei.
Sirous Amerian has an MPhil with Distinction in International Relations and Security and worked as a lecturer and tutor at the Centre for Defence and Security Studies, Massey University in New Zealand. He received his MA in Indian Studies from the University of Tehran. He has written widely on MENA security and affairs.
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