North Africa Regional Outlook: April 15, 2026

From the Sudan war deepening into a regional humanitarian and security crisis to the Iran war driving sustained energy shocks and Pope Leo XIV’s historic visit to Algeria.

By  Hafed Al Ghwell  •  Lana Bleik  •  Yusuf Can  •  Alexander Farley

From the Sudan war deepening into a regional humanitarian and security crisis to the Iran war driving sustained energy shocks as well as Pope Leo XIV’s historic visit to Algeria —explore the latest developments shaping North Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Sahel.

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From the Stimson Center

Deeper dives from the Stimson Center.

A Conversation with H.E. Ambassador Taher El-Sonni: Libya’s Strategic Outlook

Join us on April 30, 2026 for A fireside chat with Libya’s UN Ambassador Taher El-Sonni on Libya’s political outlook, energy role, and regional security amid shifting Mediterranean and Sahel dynamics.

Mali’s Post-Alignment Strategy: Sovereignty, Partnerships, and the Limits of Stabilization

Yahia Zoubir and Abdelkader Abderrahmane write for Stimson Center on how Mali’s shift in external partnerships has failed to improve security, governance, or economic conditions

The Maghreb Dilemma: Why the European Union Must Contain Escalating Tensions Between Algeria and Morocco

Djallel Kechib writes on why EU fragmentation risks fueling Algeria–Morocco tensions, and how a neutral, coordinated strategy could prevent escalation and protect regional stability.

A Conversation with H.E. Ambassador Duarte Lopes: Europe, North Africa, and the Mediterranean

Watch this public fireside chat with Ambassador Duarte Lopes on Europe’s engagement with North Africa and the Sahel, Mediterranean security dynamics, and Portugal’s role in EU–Africa partnerships.

A discussion on Libya’s economy: between missed opportunities and promising potential

Watch this discussion on Libya’s economy—exploring missed opportunities and emerging potential—featuring Jonathan Winer, former U.S. Special Envoy to Libya, in conversation with Hafed Al-Ghwell, Director of the North Africa Program at the Stimson Center. Co-sponsored by Libya Alahrar TV and the Stimson Center.

On Our Radar

The headlines shaping politics, security, and economics across North Africa and the Sahel.

Al Jazeera

Pope Leo XIV Arrives in Algeria on First-Ever Papal Visit

Pope Leo XIV landed in Algiers on April 13 to begin an 11-day, four-nation Africa tour — the first papal visit to Algeria in history. The U.S.-born pontiff aims to promote Christian-Muslim coexistence and honor St. Augustine, born in present-day Algeria.

Al Jazeera

Libya Approves First Unified Budget in More Than a Decade

Libya’s rival legislative bodies approved a unified state budget for the first time since 2013, in a rare moment of political cooperation that the Central Bank described as a step toward restoring financial stability.

Reuters

Fighting Between Sahel-Based Jihadist Rivals Spills into Niger

Al-Qaeda-linked JNIM and Islamic State Sahel Province clashed in Niger’s Tillabéri region for the first time, after years of inter-group fighting confined to Mali and Burkina Faso. ISSP claimed 35 JNIM fighters killed; analysts warned poor cross-border security is enabling both groups to expand.

UN News

Sudan: 14 Million Displaced; Hunger and Attacks on Health Continue as War Enters Fourth Year

UNHCR reported approximately 14 million people, a quarter of Sudan’s population, have been forced to flee, with 9 million internally displaced and 4.4 million across borders, primarily in Chad, South Sudan, and Egypt.

Al Jazeera

Mediterranean Migrant Deaths Mounting Towards 1,000 in 2026: UN

IOM reported at least 990 migrant deaths in the Mediterranean since January 2026, the deadliest start to a year since 2014. Over 180 people died or went missing in five separate shipwrecks in just 10 days, with most departures from Libya and Tunisia.

World Bank

Conflict Hits MENAAP Economies, Underscoring Need for Action to Boost Resilience, Create Jobs

The World Bank slashed its 2026 MENA growth forecast to 1.8%, down 2.4 percentage points from January projections, citing the Strait of Hormuz closure. Egypt faces particular vulnerability with $27 billion in external debt service and disrupted Suez Canal revenues.

World Bank

Sahel: World Bank Group Launches New Country Partnership Framework for Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Niger

The World Bank approved new 2026–2031 Country Partnership Frameworks for four Sahel nations, aiming to stimulate job creation for youth and women, strengthen human capital, and support agricultural productivity under the Fragility, Conflict, and Violence Strategy.

Morocco World News

Mali Withdraws Recognition of Polisario’s Self-Proclaimed SADR

Mali officially withdrew recognition of the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic and endorsed Morocco’s autonomy plan as the only serious and credible basis for resolving the Western Sahara dispute, announced after talks between Malian and Moroccan foreign ministers in Bamako.

Progress Center for Policies

Military Intelligence Chiefs Conference Of Sahel And Mediterranean States In Tripoli

The 2026 Military Intelligence Chiefs’ Conference opened in Tripoli with participation from 10 countries. Libya’s PM Dbeibeh called terrorism in the Sahel a growing threat exploiting security gaps.

North Africa Post

Algeria Seeks to Use Papal Visit to Whitewash Amid Rights Groups’ Outcry

Ahead of Pope Leo XIV’s arrival, diplomats and rights advocates warned that Algerian authorities were exploiting the historic papal visit to distract from an authoritarian system that persecutes Christians, closes churches, and curtails religious freedom.

North Africa Post

Morocco, France and EU Launch THAMM+ and PRIM2 Programs to Regulate Labor Migration

Morocco, France, and the EU jointly launched two new programs at a ceremony in Rabat on April 9, building structured, rights-based pathways for legal labor mobility between North Africa and Europe.

IMF

Libya: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2026 Article IV Consultation Mission

The IMF warned that Libya’s public spending has expanded well beyond sustainable levels, with fiscal deficits reaching about 30% of GDP in 2025. While the oil price surge presents opportunities, it also poses risks if not prudently managed.

Assahifa

Global Tech Giants Back $1.2 Billion AI Data Hub in Morocco

Announced during GITEX Africa 2026 in Marrakech, Morocco attracted $1.2 billion for what is described as the first sovereign AI platform on the African continent, positioning the country as a growing tech hub.

Al Jazeera

Libya’s Oil Disputes Mirror Hormuz Crisis, Fuel European Energy Fears

As the Strait of Hormuz closure disrupted global energy markets, Libya’s own oil sector disputes between rival administrations deepened European energy fears, with the continent scrambling to secure alternative supply routes.

WHO

Three Years of War in Sudan Have Destroyed Water and Health Infrastructure

WHO’s Sudan representative warned that three years of conflict have shattered essential water supply and healthcare services, describing Sudan as the world’s largest humanitarian crisis.

Al Jazeera

Are Drones and AI Making It Harder to Fight Armed Groups in the Sahel?

Al Jazeera analysis examining how the proliferation of commercial and military drones, combined with AI-assisted surveillance, is changing the operational dynamics of counterinsurgency in the Sahel, complicating both state and non-state actors’ strategies.

Sudan Tribune

Sudan national forces alliance to boycott Berlin conference

The National Forces Alliance announced on Sunday its refusal to participate in the upcoming Berlin conference, citing the exclusion of the Sudanese government and a lack of balanced representation.

Al Jazeera

Millions in War-Ravaged Sudan Surviving on One Meal a Day, Say NGOs

People in North Darfur and South Kordofan are resorting to eating leaves and animal feed, with 61.7% of Sudan’s population facing acute food shortages according to the 2026 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan.

Progress Center for Policies

Military Intelligence Chiefs Conference of Sahel and Mediterranean States in Tripoli

Analysis of the April 6 intelligence chiefs conference in Tripoli with 10 countries participating, examining Libya’s initiative to establish a permanent regional security forum amid rising terrorism and declining Western engagement in Africa.

UNHCR

CORE Emergency Situation in Sudan—Chad

Situation update on the refugee emergency in Chad triggered by Sudan’s conflict. Chad hosts over 1 million Sudanese refugees, with ongoing cross-border security concerns and overwhelming humanitarian needs.

Norwegian Refugee Council

Sudan War Refugees Pushed into Hunger as Livelihoods Collapse Across the Region

Research report documenting extreme hunger, repeated displacement, and total livelihood collapse among families displaced by Sudan’s war across Sudan, South Sudan, Chad, Egypt, and Libya.

Amnesty International

Sudan: High-Income Countries Must Use Berlin Meeting to Save Lives as Conflict Hits Three-Year Mark

Call on international donors to secure increased funding and pressure warring parties to ensure unhindered humanitarian access, noting that three years of conflict have left more than 33 million people in need of assistance.

Amnesty International EU

Sudan: The EU Must Act for Sudan’s Civilians at Three Years of Conflict (Joint Letter)

Joint letter calling on the EU to respond to serious IHL/IHRL violations in Sudan, referencing the UN Fact-Finding Mission’s February 2026 finding of hallmarks of genocide in El Fasher and urging the EU to prioritize protection, accountability, and humanitarian aid.

IFC (International Finance Corporation)

Mauritania Investment Code 2025: How Modern Legal Reform Boosts Private Sector Growth

IFC details how its collaboration with Mauritania’s government produced a sweeping 2025 Investment Code reform, streamlining procedures, strengthening investor protections, and generating 19 newly approved projects representing $120 million in declared investment and nearly 1,000 direct jobs.

Mining.com

BRICS+ Nations Hold Over 17% of World’s Gold Reserves: Report

Report based on EBC Financial Group data showing that BRICS+ nations now hold approximately 6,000 tons of gold (17.4% of global reserves), up from 11.2% in 2019, driven by a structural shift away from dollar-denominated assets accelerated by Western sanctions against Russia.

Business Insider Africa

DRC’s $465 Million Ubangi River Plan Could Reshape Central Africa’s Economy

Coverage of a major Democratic Republic of Congo infrastructure initiative to develop the Ubangi River corridor, with potential to transform trade and economic connectivity across Central Africa.

Business Insider Africa

Africa’s Largest Uranium Producer Namibia Unveils New High-Grade Critical Mineral Site

Reporting on Namibia’s discovery of a new high-grade uranium and critical minerals deposit, reinforcing the country’s position as Africa’s leading uranium producer at a moment of heightened global demand for nuclear fuel.

Upstream Online

BP and ADNOC Invest $500 Million in New Egypt Gas Project

BP and ADNOC’s joint venture Arcius Energy announced a $500 million investment in a new Egyptian gas development targeting 200 million cubic feet per day of production, signaling continued major IOC confidence in Egypt’s upstream gas sector.

Business Insider Africa

Dangote Confirms March Crude Supply to Africa’s Largest Refinery Doubled

Aliko Dangote confirmed that crude oil deliveries to the Dangote Refinery in Nigeria doubled in March, marking a significant operational milestone for the continent’s largest refinery as it scales up to full capacity.

AL Circle

Aluminum du Maroc: A Vertically Integrated Aluminium Business Linked to Africa’s Growth

Profile of Aluminum du Maroc, a Casablanca Stock Exchange-listed company that converts raw aluminum into extrusions, sheets, and industrial components, positioning itself to benefit from Morocco’s infrastructure boom and rising demand across Africa and Europe.

Reuters

Italy’s Eni Discovers 2 Trillion Cubic Feet of Gas Offshore Egypt

Eni announced a major offshore gas discovery in Egyptian waters estimated at 2 trillion cubic feet, adding significantly to Egypt’s proven reserves and potentially boosting the country’s gas export capacity at a time of heightened European demand for non-Gulf energy alternatives.

The Banker

Why regulation is stifling Africa’s liquidity potential

Financial analysis piece covering banking or investment developments in North Africa or the broader MENA region.

North Africa Post

Africa’s Longest Monorail Line Begins Operations as Egypt Opens 565km Cairo Route

Egypt inaugurated a 565km monorail network in and around Cairo, described as Africa’s longest, marking a major milestone in the country’s urban transport infrastructure expansion amid ongoing economic pressures.

The New York Times

Pope Leo XIV Begins Historic Africa Visit in Algeria

The New York Times covers Pope Leo XIV’s arrival in Algeria, the first-ever papal visit to the country, framing it within the broader context of his 11-day Africa tour and efforts to advance Christian-Muslim dialogue on the continent.

Financial Times

BP hails ‘exceptional’ quarter for oil traders as Iran war stokes volatility

BP hailed an “exceptional” first quarter for its oil traders as the company benefited from the surge in prices sparked by the Iran war.

Financial Times

African governments turn to complex derivatives as debt costs rise

African governments are turning to derivatives to borrow billions of dollars as they struggle with soaring debt costs, in a flurry of deals that critics say could pile further financial pain on to countries in the event of a default.

Financial Times

What happens in Sudan will not stay in Sudan

Financial Times analysis arguing that the disintegration of the country would complete an arc of ungovernable lands across the Sahel.

Reports & Analysis on the Region

Deeper dives from experts, think tanks, and research institutes.

REPORT

Africa Overview: March 2026

ACLED’s monthly Africa conflict overview for March 2026, tracking political violence, demonstrations, and armed group activity across the continent, with particular focus on the Sahel, Sudan, and eastern DRC.

COMMENTARY

Hormuz Exposes Africa’s Fertiliser Structural Risk

ISS Africa analysis of how the Strait of Hormuz disruption exposed Africa’s structural dependence on imported fertilizer, warning of potential yield reductions of 20–30% in parts of the Sahel if input shortages persist.

COMMENTARY

Turkey Arms Tripoli Islamists as Eastern Libya Rebuilds with Oil Money

Middle East Forum analysis examining Turkey’s continued military support for Islamist-linked factions in Tripoli while eastern Libya’s Haftar-aligned administration leverages oil revenues for reconstruction, deepening the country’s political and security divide.

COMMENTARY

Trump’s African Health Strategy Falters

ISS Africa assessment of shortcomings in the Trump administration’s health strategy for Africa, examining gaps in engagement, the impact of USAID restructuring, and effects on health outcomes across the Sahel and North Africa.

REPORT

Juntas and Moscow Reshaping Sahel Alliances

GIS Reports assessment of how Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger’s military juntas have consolidated power, deepened ties with Russia via the Africa Corps and the Alliance of Sahel States, and expelled Western forces, while jihadist groups continue to expand and violence in the region hits record levels.

COMMENTARY

Class Struggle and Climate Catastrophe in the Sahel

Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research analysis dossier examining how Sahel conflict is rooted in class struggle, shaped by imperialist extraction, and intensified by climate catastrophe, with photography from Burkina Faso and analysis of structural dynamics beyond conventional security framing.

REPORT

The Widening Scope of Africa’s Militant Islamist Threat

A major Africa Center for Strategic Studies analytical report documenting that fatalities linked to militant Islamist groups in Africa reached near-record levels in 2025 (23,968 fatalities, a 24% increase), with the Sahel holding the highest fatality count for five consecutive years.

REPORT

“None Can Run Away”: War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity in Burkina Faso by All Sides

Major 316-page Human Rights Watch report documenting 57 incidents of atrocities in Burkina Faso, finding that the Burkinabè military, allied VDP militias, and JNIM have killed over 1,800 civilians, amounting to war crimes including ethnic cleansing of Fulani communities. Calls for ICC investigation.

REPORT

Tine: Two Months After Repeated Attacks at the Border (Chad)

Médecins Sans Frontières field report documenting 457 people treated for injuries from drone strikes and cross-border attacks at the Chad-Sudan border since early February 2026, including a March 18 drone attack on a funeral in Tine that killed 17 people.

REPORT

Three Years of War Have Shattered Sudan’s Lifelines

Médecins Sans Frontières report marking three years of Sudan’s war, documenting 7,700+ patients treated for violence-related injuries in 2025, over 500 civilians killed by drone strikes in January–March 2026, and 213 attacks on healthcare facilities since April 2023.

REPORT

Sudan: Two years into the conflict, the world’s largest humanitarian crisis now threatens regional stability

Oxfam joint report warning that Sudan’s humanitarian catastrophe is spilling into neighboring countries, with 12.7 million displaced, nearly 9 million in or near famine conditions, and 17 million children out of school.

REPORT

April 2026 Monthly Forecast

Forecast of the UN Security Council’s April 2026 agenda including Sudan briefings, noting $2.9 billion needed for the 2026 humanitarian response plan (only 5.8% funded), and the extension of the UNOWAS mandate for West Africa and the Sahel.

POLICY ANALYSIS

Carbon Market Development in Africa: Ethiopia as a Model

Peer-reviewed Nature article using spatial mapping and economic analysis to argue that Ethiopia’s government-owned land structure, combined with significant carbon sequestration potential (up to 700 million tons of CO2e), makes it a replicable model for developing carbon markets across Africa, with estimated potential revenue of up to $5 billion.

REPORT

Residual Threats from Tunisian Jihadists

A Jamestown Foundation analysis of January 2026 counterterrorism operations in Tunisia’s Kasserine governorate that disrupted an IS-affiliated cell and killed several militants, concluding that jihadist networks remain fragmented, localized, and operationally constrained rather than indicative of a structural resurgence.

Upcoming Events

Key briefings and conferences to watch.

Berlin Conference on Sudan

Co-hosted by Germany and the African Union on April 14–15, this was the dominant diplomatic event of the week. Preparatory activity, Sudan’s formal objection, and multiple side events occurred April 6–13. Aims to mobilize humanitarian support and advance peace as the war marks its third anniversary.

Tune In

Hear the latest insights from regional experts.

WEBINAR

Global Democracy Under Pressure

Brookings event examining the state of democracy globally, including in Africa, amid rising authoritarianism, military coups, erosion of civic space, and the weakening of international democratic norms.

PODCAST

After Three Years of War in Sudan, What Hope for a Ceasefire?

Richard Atwood speaks with Crisis Group experts about shifts along front lines, de facto partition, how the Iran war is affecting Sudan dynamics, and prospects for a ceasefire.

PODCAST

Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms

Catherine Nzuki of CSIS hosts a roundtable with two Sudanese scholars discussing Sudan’s grassroots ERR network delivering food, medicine, and essential services across all 18 states amid ongoing war.

PODCAST

Geopolitics of the Horn and the Iran War

Samira Gaid of CSIS discusses how the Iran war reverberates across the Horn of Africa, affecting dynamics in Sudan, the Red Sea, and the wider region

PODCAST

Emergency Response Rooms: Sudan’s Humanitarian Lifeline

Features Sudanese ERR representatives who visited London to receive the Chatham House Prize, discussing grassroots mutual aid, the tradition of nafeer (collective action), and the underreported role of Sudanese women.

PODCAST

Sudan war: ‘Music saved my life’

BBC World Service podcastexamines the ongoing power struggle between SAF and RSF as April 15 marks three years since the war began, with more than 150,000 dead and massive displacement.

INTERVIEW

Egypt’s Foreign Minister: One Cannot Secure Waterways While Ignoring the Political Order of the States Along the Shore

Atlantic Council interview with Egyptian FM Badr Abdelatty on the Hormuz crisis, Red Sea instability, and Egypt’s strategic positioning. Cairo emphasizes that waterway security requires addressing the political order of littoral states, including those affected by the Sudan conflict.

PODCAST

US-Iran Ceasefire and Africa

BBC World Service podcastcovers the two-week US-Iran ceasefire reopening the Strait of Hormuz and discusses how the Middle East conflict has led to fuel shortages in many African countries, with knock-on effects for North African and Sahel economies.

VIDEO REPORT

Sudan War Enters Third Year

Al Jazeera English video segment featuring CARE’s Country Director on the humanitarian impact of Sudan’s war on civilians, especially women and girls, noting the emergency response plan is barely 15% funded in 2026.

Job Opportunities

Career moves, fellowships, and calls for applications—all in one place.

Moroccan Association of Public Policies
Call for Papers
Announces the Call for Proposals for the 2nd International Conference on Governance and Public Action, to be held on April 14–15, 2026, at the Faculty of Law, Economics and Social Sciences Agdal, Mohammed V University of Rabat.

Values for Impact
Call for Papers
Under the theme Solidarity, Authenticity, and Prosperity, the conference will convene scholars, policymakers, regulators, and industry professionals to discuss how Islamic finance can promote solidarity-oriented and inclusive entrepreneurship, support authenticity through stronger real-economy linkages, and enable prosperity via trustworthy digital and AI-enabled financial services, while welcoming comparative perspectives on ethical and values-based finance.

Finca Ventures Prize Competition
Call for Applications
The 2026 call invites impact entrepreneurs to apply by April 10 for programs supporting innovative fintech solutions that expand financial inclusion for underserved populations.

St. Andrew’s Refugee Services
Deputy Director, Refugee Legal Aid Program  (Cairo, Egypt)
Under the supervision of the Director of Refugee Legal Aid Program, the Deputy Director supports management of program services implementation focused on legal advice and representation to urban refugees in matters of refugee status determination, protection, and resettlement.

UNICEF
Social Policy Specialist (Khartoum, Sudan)
Fixed-term position providing technical support to social policy programming with focus on public budget and expenditure analysis to improve equitable allocations for children’s services in Sudan.

United Nations Volunteers
Communication Officer (Sudan)
UNV position supporting UN humanitarian and development communications in Sudan.

Danish Refugee Council (DRC)
Safeguarding & Code of Conduct Coordinator (Niger)
Expatriate or national position coordinating safeguarding policies across DRC operations in Niger and Chad.

Danish Refugee Council (DRC)
HR and Administration Officer (Niger)
Human resources and administrative support position in DRC’s operations in Niger amid a complex displacement and security crisis.

Danish Refugee Council (DRC)
Economic Recovery (ECREC) Assistant (Niger)
The ECREC assistant is responsible for the direct implementation of the project and its monitoring within the framework of economic recovery activities in collaboration with the base manager and the project team.

UNDP
National Consultant for Monitoring and Oversight of Rehabilitation Works (Mali)
Seeking a national consultant for the monitoring and control of the rehabilitation work on 4 youth centers in the municipalities of Ségou, Markala, Niono and Koutiala under the JCP/PBF project.

Feature image: Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper meets Sudanese refugees in Adré, eastern Chad. By Russell Watkins/FCDO.

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