Iran has long been known for its strategy of “strategic depth” — supporting the formation of proxy groups in Arab countries, seeking to export its ideology of political Islam, and rejecting the legitimacy of Israel. However, the Gaza war has pushed Iran toward acknowledging a regional consensus that opposes the expansion of the fighting and affirms a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict in order not to damage its soft strategic depth.
The shift is occurring even as Israel steps up attacks on Iranian officials and others affiliated with Iran and even though Iranian officials believe that the international system is transitioning from Western domination to growing power for the East.
In the aftermath of the Hamas attack on Israel on Oct. 7 and the subsequent Israeli retaliation, Iran has portrayed the conflict as a war, not between an Iranian proxy and Israel but as a conflict between Muslims and the U.S., Israel’s main backer. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei asserted in a speech on Dec. 2, 2023, that Palestinians had discredited the U.S. and the West and exposed their double standards on the issue of human rights. At the same time, however, Tehran voted in favor of a resolution of at the United Nations General Assembly – albeit with a reservation — that declared that a two-state solution is the only way to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Iran followed the same position at a subsequent joint meeting of the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in Saudi Arabia.
The Iranian position has been that Israel is illegitimate and that a future state should be determined through a referendum of Palestine’s pre-1948 inhabitants and their descendants. However, Iran has been trying not to be isolated in the Islamic world and recognizes that other countries such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey are likely to play a bigger role in diplomacy and reconstruction following the Gaza war. In addition, there are divisions among Iranian Shi’ite clerics about Palestine, with some members of the Qom Seminary supporting a two-state solution. Former reformist president Mohammad Khatami, himself a senior cleric, has said that Iran would accept a Palestinian state alongside Israel if the elected Hamas government chose this path. Notably, Khatami mentioned Hamas, not the Palestinian National Authority that nominally governs the West Bank, and that the U.S. has boosted as a substitute for Hamas in Gaza.
Tehran also sees the Gaza war as an opportunity to strengthen ties with the Global South. Ayatollah Khamenei raised the war in a meeting with the president of Cuba Miguel Diaz-Canel on December 4, 2023, asserting that their positions on Palestine reflected shared “revolutionary” values and a rebuff to American and Western bullying.
While expressing rhetorical support for Hamas, however, Iran has not sought a widening of the war and appears eager to avoid a direct confrontation with the U.S.
Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the Aerospace Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said recently that even after the U.S. assassination of Quds Force commander Gen. Qasem Soleimani in 2020, Iran did not retaliate in a way that would have led to a direct war with America because it would have cost Iran a lot.
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, a veteran conservative politician, added that post-Oct. 7, a U.S.-Iran conflict would be contrary to Iranian interests.
In tempering its rejectionism toward a two-state solution, Iran is also acknowledging that this is the position of its key allies, China and Russia. Ali Larijani, a former speaker of the parliament, remarked recently that China and Russia also have ties with Israel that they do not want to jeopardize.
Moscow supports the formation of a Palestinian state within the framework of the Arab peace plan proposed by Saudi Arabia in 2002. This framework offers Arab recognition of Israel in return for the creation of a Palestinian state on the territory Israel occupied in the 1967 war.
At a meeting in Morocco on Dec. 20, 2023 of foreign ministers of the 6th session of the Russia-Arab Cooperation Forum, Moscow sought to accommodate the preferences of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and the U.S. for a Palestinian state governed by the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) – the body which represents Palestinians in international organizations. The ministers issued a statement that affirmed that the PLO “is the legitimate and sole representative of the Palestinian people.” They added that “…the Palestinian factions and forces [should] unite under its umbrella, and everyone should bear their responsibilities in light of a national partnership led by the Palestine Liberation Organization.” This issue has implications for Hamas and the Islamic Jihad group, which are supported by Iran.
Hossein Shariatmadari, the editor-in-chief of the hardline Kayhan newspaper who is close to Ayatollah Khamenei, criticized the statement and reiterated the Islamic Republic’s goal of eliminating Israel from the world map. However, these views were not considered in any of the recent meetings held by Arab and Islamic countries, including the joint meeting of the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation in Riyadh.
Influential countries in the Arab League blocked serious proposals to put pressure on Israel to stop its aggression against Gaza, such as calling on Arab countries that have diplomatic relations with Israel to break those ties. One reason for merging the meetings of the Arab League and the OIC was the lack of consensus to take major steps against Israel.
Iran held its own conference on Palestine, on Dec. 23, 2023, to put forward more radical views. Deputy foreign minister (and chief nuclear negotiator) Ali Bagheri Kani said on the sidelines of the conference that America was not interested in justice but only in imposing its order on the world. However, even if global power shifts toward the East, Russia and China are looking out for their own interests and they do not necessarily coincide with those of Iran.
Accordingly, the Gaza war has revealed weaknesses in Iran’s “soft power”, especially over a future resolution to the most important issue facing the region: the Israel-Palestine conflict.
Javad Heiran-Nia directs the Persian Gulf Studies Group at the Center for Scientific Research and Middle East Strategic Studies in Iran. His book, Iran and the Security Order in the Persian Gulf, is being published by Routledge. Follow him on Twitter: @J_Heirannia.
Iran Tempers Rejectionism to Muslim Consensus on Palestine
By Javad Heiran-Nia
Middle East & North Africa
Iran has long been known for its strategy of “strategic depth” — supporting the formation of proxy groups in Arab countries, seeking to export its ideology of political Islam, and rejecting the legitimacy of Israel. However, the Gaza war has pushed Iran toward acknowledging a regional consensus that opposes the expansion of the fighting and affirms a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict in order not to damage its soft strategic depth.
The shift is occurring even as Israel steps up attacks on Iranian officials and others affiliated with Iran and even though Iranian officials believe that the international system is transitioning from Western domination to growing power for the East.
In the aftermath of the Hamas attack on Israel on Oct. 7 and the subsequent Israeli retaliation, Iran has portrayed the conflict as a war, not between an Iranian proxy and Israel but as a conflict between Muslims and the U.S., Israel’s main backer. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei asserted in a speech on Dec. 2, 2023, that Palestinians had discredited the U.S. and the West and exposed their double standards on the issue of human rights. At the same time, however, Tehran voted in favor of a resolution of at the United Nations General Assembly – albeit with a reservation — that declared that a two-state solution is the only way to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Iran followed the same position at a subsequent joint meeting of the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in Saudi Arabia.
The Iranian position has been that Israel is illegitimate and that a future state should be determined through a referendum of Palestine’s pre-1948 inhabitants and their descendants. However, Iran has been trying not to be isolated in the Islamic world and recognizes that other countries such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey are likely to play a bigger role in diplomacy and reconstruction following the Gaza war. In addition, there are divisions among Iranian Shi’ite clerics about Palestine, with some members of the Qom Seminary supporting a two-state solution. Former reformist president Mohammad Khatami, himself a senior cleric, has said that Iran would accept a Palestinian state alongside Israel if the elected Hamas government chose this path. Notably, Khatami mentioned Hamas, not the Palestinian National Authority that nominally governs the West Bank, and that the U.S. has boosted as a substitute for Hamas in Gaza.
Tehran also sees the Gaza war as an opportunity to strengthen ties with the Global South. Ayatollah Khamenei raised the war in a meeting with the president of Cuba Miguel Diaz-Canel on December 4, 2023, asserting that their positions on Palestine reflected shared “revolutionary” values and a rebuff to American and Western bullying.
While expressing rhetorical support for Hamas, however, Iran has not sought a widening of the war and appears eager to avoid a direct confrontation with the U.S.
Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the Aerospace Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said recently that even after the U.S. assassination of Quds Force commander Gen. Qasem Soleimani in 2020, Iran did not retaliate in a way that would have led to a direct war with America because it would have cost Iran a lot.
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, a veteran conservative politician, added that post-Oct. 7, a U.S.-Iran conflict would be contrary to Iranian interests.
In tempering its rejectionism toward a two-state solution, Iran is also acknowledging that this is the position of its key allies, China and Russia. Ali Larijani, a former speaker of the parliament, remarked recently that China and Russia also have ties with Israel that they do not want to jeopardize.
Moscow supports the formation of a Palestinian state within the framework of the Arab peace plan proposed by Saudi Arabia in 2002. This framework offers Arab recognition of Israel in return for the creation of a Palestinian state on the territory Israel occupied in the 1967 war.
At a meeting in Morocco on Dec. 20, 2023 of foreign ministers of the 6th session of the Russia-Arab Cooperation Forum, Moscow sought to accommodate the preferences of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and the U.S. for a Palestinian state governed by the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) – the body which represents Palestinians in international organizations. The ministers issued a statement that affirmed that the PLO “is the legitimate and sole representative of the Palestinian people.” They added that “…the Palestinian factions and forces [should] unite under its umbrella, and everyone should bear their responsibilities in light of a national partnership led by the Palestine Liberation Organization.” This issue has implications for Hamas and the Islamic Jihad group, which are supported by Iran.
Hossein Shariatmadari, the editor-in-chief of the hardline Kayhan newspaper who is close to Ayatollah Khamenei, criticized the statement and reiterated the Islamic Republic’s goal of eliminating Israel from the world map. However, these views were not considered in any of the recent meetings held by Arab and Islamic countries, including the joint meeting of the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation in Riyadh.
Influential countries in the Arab League blocked serious proposals to put pressure on Israel to stop its aggression against Gaza, such as calling on Arab countries that have diplomatic relations with Israel to break those ties. One reason for merging the meetings of the Arab League and the OIC was the lack of consensus to take major steps against Israel.
Iran held its own conference on Palestine, on Dec. 23, 2023, to put forward more radical views. Deputy foreign minister (and chief nuclear negotiator) Ali Bagheri Kani said on the sidelines of the conference that America was not interested in justice but only in imposing its order on the world. However, even if global power shifts toward the East, Russia and China are looking out for their own interests and they do not necessarily coincide with those of Iran.
Accordingly, the Gaza war has revealed weaknesses in Iran’s “soft power”, especially over a future resolution to the most important issue facing the region: the Israel-Palestine conflict.
Javad Heiran-Nia directs the Persian Gulf Studies Group at the Center for Scientific Research and Middle East Strategic Studies in Iran. His book, Iran and the Security Order in the Persian Gulf, is being published by Routledge. Follow him on Twitter: @J_Heirannia.
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