Since the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan three years ago, few countries have been more proactive in engaging them than China. In the past several months, China has advocated at the UN level for countries to increase international dialogue with the Taliban, at the same time gradually increasing its own bilateral interactions with Taliban-led Afghanistan and laying the groundwork for regional interconnectivity. In doing so, China envisions a future for Afghanistan that officials hope to contrast with decades of failed intervention: one reconnecting Afghanistan to the world and its surrounding region to increase mutual prosperity.

China’s increasing engagement with Afghanistan is clear; bilateral trade more than doubled between 2022 and 2023, from USD 595 million to USD 1.33 billion. At the same time, however, few new noteworthy investments have been reported outside of the 2023 Amu Darya oil basin contract. Tangible engagement with Afghanistan under China’s Belt and Road Initiative is also yet to materialise.

The actual hesitation on the ground of China’s businesses and government in further deepening ties with Taliban-led Afghanistan indicates significant barriers remain. While China will continue to expand its interests in Afghanistan, it will do so at a measured pace and with great caution instead of rapidly filling the great power vacuum the United States left behind. In this, the Chinese government is making a long-term bet: it could see benefits from investments in agriculture and critical materials like copper and lithium as well as regional interconnectivity in the future, slowly bolstering its great power status in the process.

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