Editor’s note: While the Stimson Center rarely publishes anonymous work, the author of this commentary is a Tehran-based analyst who has requested anonymity out of legitimate concern for their personal safety. The writer is known to appropriate staff, has a track record of reliable analysis, and is in a position to provide an otherwise unavailable perspective.
Iranian leaders were quick to praise Hamas for its massive attack on Israel on Oct. 7. In a speech to graduates of the military academy three days later, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei denied any Iranian involvement in the planning and logistics of the operation but voiced his “full support” for the assault, which killed more than 1,000 Israelis, most of them civilians.
Other government officials, including President Ebrahim Raisi, cabinet ministers, several parliamentarians and top military officers also lauded the Hamas attack. Regime supporters even staged fireworks and public celebrations in at least eight cities, celebrating what some called the beginning of Israel’s collapse. But the moderate and reformist camp did not share these sentiments and much of the general public showed an opposite response.
Raisi’s predecessor, Hassan Rouhani, former parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani and former secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Shamkhani have yet to comment on the Hamas attack. Former foreign minister and nuclear negotiator Ali Salehi did speak to Iranian media but warned that “the situation is more complicated than many parliamentarians and officials think. The people in office, especially those in parliament, should not make such rash remarks. Their remarks should be checked and coordinated in advance with the Supreme National Security Council. It is dangerous if they say whatever comes to their minds. This is only for the Supreme Leader to talk and to make statements on our position.”
Others were far more critical of the government position. Political analyst Sadegh Zibakalam wrote on his Instagram page that even Iranians who supported the Palestinians and opposed Israel at the time of the 1979 revolution did so because of their opposition to Iran’s monarchy, which had close, if unofficial, ties to Israel. “But today, because of the enmity of the Islamic Republic with Israel, regime opponents consider Hamas a terrorist entity and voice their support for the Israeli operation in Gaza,” Zibakalam wrote.
Even before the revolution, Iran – as a Muslim majority, although not Arab, state – showed sympathy with the Palestinian cause. But that sympathy has eroded as the Islamic Republic spent Iran’s limited resources on supporting what Iranians regard as extraneous causes rather than on the needs of the Iranian public.
In the aftermath of the Hamas attack, Iranians outside the regime have espoused a range of positions from full support to Israel and its people and condemnation of Hamas to criticism of Hamas combined with anger at Israel for shelling the civilian population in the Gaza Strip.
One sign of popular opposition surfaced when regime supporters waved Palestinian and Hamas flags in a stadium prior to a recent football match in Tehran’s Azadi stadium. Spectators reacted by chanting anti-Hamas and pro-Israeli slogans.
Satirist and comedian Zeinab Mousavi, who has been jailed for mild criticism of the Iranian regime, told regime and Hamas supporters, “Cheer you war mongers. War has started, women and children and innocent people will be killed, and homes will be ruined. Hundreds of thousands of people will be driven out of their homes to enable you to cheer in joy.”
Taghi Rahmani, husband of Nobel peace prize winner Narges Mohammadi, Nasrin Shakarami, whose daughter Nika Shakarami was killed in the early days of the protests last year against enforced veiling, and human rights activist Atena Daemi posted similar messages. Fatemeh Sepehri, who is serving a long prison term in Mashhad for writing an open letter to Khamenei demanding that he resign, went so far as to write from her hospital bed, where she is recuperating from open heart surgery, that the “Iranian people stand by the people of Israel and against Hamas terrorists.”
Abdul-Hamid Esmail-Zehi, the outspoken Sunni Friday prayer leader of Zahedan, which has suffered massive government repression in recent years, wrote that the Iranian people “support peace between Israelis and Palestinians. War only results in human catastrophe. Iranian people support international efforts to broker a peace deal between Israel and Palestine.”
Political and social commentator Abbas Abdi wrote in the reformist Etemad newspaper that “this level of polarization is wrong and dangerous. This kind of support of the treatment of Israeli citizens by Hamas is worse than a war.” Ahmad Zeidabadi, another prominent analyst, wrote that “Hamas made a strategic mistake” by attacking civilians in Israel, knowing well that the result would be an all-out war. In another post, he asked, “If this war in Gaza results in total destruction of Hamas and the killing of Palestinian people, will the policy makers of the Islamic republic apologize for their wrong policies?”
Zibakalam posted a video on his Instagram page showing college students refusing to walk over the flags of the U.S. and Israel which are often placed at the entrance to universities in Iran as a show of support for the Palestinians. “Who has given this mission to the Islamic Republic to destroy Israel?” Zibakalam asked. “Have Iranian people ever been asked whether they want Israel destroyed? What if they say no? Who is to be held accountable for damages to our national security and interests if the wishes of Iranian people are different than those of the Islamic Republic?”
Many reformist activists have taken positions criticizing both Israel and Hamas. Azar Mansouri, who heads the Iran Reforms Front, chastised Iranian leaders for supporting Hamas but refraining from criticizing China for its oppression of Uyghur Muslims. “This double standard is the reason why the Iranian people are suspicious of the regime’s support for Hamas and instead support Israel’s actions against Iran-supported groups,” Mansouri wrote in Etemad newspaper.
Law professor and former parliamentarian Mahmoud Sadeghi criticized the regime for putting the interests of Lebanon and Palestine over “Iran’s national interests and security and the welfare of Iranian people … The Islamic Republic’s stated policy on Palestine is a referendum for Palestinians to state their wishes but will the Islamic Republic do the same for its own population? Will there be a referendum asking Iranian people what they think about Palestine, Lebanon, and Hamas?”
Commentator Koroush Ahmadi, in an op-ed in the reformist Shargh newspaper, wrote that the “Islamic republic should allow the issue to be debated in the civil society instead of blocking popular opinions and resorting to propaganda. It needs to cooperate with regional and international players to find a just and sustainable solution for the Palestinian dilemma. Any other policy will be futile.”
Former president Mohammad Khatami issued a statement noting that the Hamas attack on Israel “has changed the balance of power in the region.” He asked Iranian officials to “avoid rash policies and to make proper decisions based on national interests.” Khatami, who as president said Iran would accept any Middle East peace pact agreed to by the Palestinians, added that the new balance of power “must be used in favor of bringing a comprehensive peace in the region.” The Iranian people have shown in the “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement of last year that they too want freedom, democracy, and respect for human rights but only through peaceful and nonviolent methods. Violence, suppression of civilians, and the killing of innocent people, whether by Palestinian groups or by Israel, are against the stated objectives and methods of the many thousands of Iranians who have risked their lives to change their own repressive system of government.
Iranians Differ Widely with Their Leaders Over the War Between Israel and Hamas
By Anonymous
Middle East & North Africa
Editor’s note: While the Stimson Center rarely publishes anonymous work, the author of this commentary is a Tehran-based analyst who has requested anonymity out of legitimate concern for their personal safety. The writer is known to appropriate staff, has a track record of reliable analysis, and is in a position to provide an otherwise unavailable perspective.
Iranian leaders were quick to praise Hamas for its massive attack on Israel on Oct. 7. In a speech to graduates of the military academy three days later, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei denied any Iranian involvement in the planning and logistics of the operation but voiced his “full support” for the assault, which killed more than 1,000 Israelis, most of them civilians.
Other government officials, including President Ebrahim Raisi, cabinet ministers, several parliamentarians and top military officers also lauded the Hamas attack. Regime supporters even staged fireworks and public celebrations in at least eight cities, celebrating what some called the beginning of Israel’s collapse. But the moderate and reformist camp did not share these sentiments and much of the general public showed an opposite response.
Raisi’s predecessor, Hassan Rouhani, former parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani and former secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Shamkhani have yet to comment on the Hamas attack. Former foreign minister and nuclear negotiator Ali Salehi did speak to Iranian media but warned that “the situation is more complicated than many parliamentarians and officials think. The people in office, especially those in parliament, should not make such rash remarks. Their remarks should be checked and coordinated in advance with the Supreme National Security Council. It is dangerous if they say whatever comes to their minds. This is only for the Supreme Leader to talk and to make statements on our position.”
Others were far more critical of the government position. Political analyst Sadegh Zibakalam wrote on his Instagram page that even Iranians who supported the Palestinians and opposed Israel at the time of the 1979 revolution did so because of their opposition to Iran’s monarchy, which had close, if unofficial, ties to Israel. “But today, because of the enmity of the Islamic Republic with Israel, regime opponents consider Hamas a terrorist entity and voice their support for the Israeli operation in Gaza,” Zibakalam wrote.
Even before the revolution, Iran – as a Muslim majority, although not Arab, state – showed sympathy with the Palestinian cause. But that sympathy has eroded as the Islamic Republic spent Iran’s limited resources on supporting what Iranians regard as extraneous causes rather than on the needs of the Iranian public.
In the aftermath of the Hamas attack, Iranians outside the regime have espoused a range of positions from full support to Israel and its people and condemnation of Hamas to criticism of Hamas combined with anger at Israel for shelling the civilian population in the Gaza Strip.
One sign of popular opposition surfaced when regime supporters waved Palestinian and Hamas flags in a stadium prior to a recent football match in Tehran’s Azadi stadium. Spectators reacted by chanting anti-Hamas and pro-Israeli slogans.
Satirist and comedian Zeinab Mousavi, who has been jailed for mild criticism of the Iranian regime, told regime and Hamas supporters, “Cheer you war mongers. War has started, women and children and innocent people will be killed, and homes will be ruined. Hundreds of thousands of people will be driven out of their homes to enable you to cheer in joy.”
Taghi Rahmani, husband of Nobel peace prize winner Narges Mohammadi, Nasrin Shakarami, whose daughter Nika Shakarami was killed in the early days of the protests last year against enforced veiling, and human rights activist Atena Daemi posted similar messages. Fatemeh Sepehri, who is serving a long prison term in Mashhad for writing an open letter to Khamenei demanding that he resign, went so far as to write from her hospital bed, where she is recuperating from open heart surgery, that the “Iranian people stand by the people of Israel and against Hamas terrorists.”
Abdul-Hamid Esmail-Zehi, the outspoken Sunni Friday prayer leader of Zahedan, which has suffered massive government repression in recent years, wrote that the Iranian people “support peace between Israelis and Palestinians. War only results in human catastrophe. Iranian people support international efforts to broker a peace deal between Israel and Palestine.”
Political and social commentator Abbas Abdi wrote in the reformist Etemad newspaper that “this level of polarization is wrong and dangerous. This kind of support of the treatment of Israeli citizens by Hamas is worse than a war.” Ahmad Zeidabadi, another prominent analyst, wrote that “Hamas made a strategic mistake” by attacking civilians in Israel, knowing well that the result would be an all-out war. In another post, he asked, “If this war in Gaza results in total destruction of Hamas and the killing of Palestinian people, will the policy makers of the Islamic republic apologize for their wrong policies?”
Zibakalam posted a video on his Instagram page showing college students refusing to walk over the flags of the U.S. and Israel which are often placed at the entrance to universities in Iran as a show of support for the Palestinians. “Who has given this mission to the Islamic Republic to destroy Israel?” Zibakalam asked. “Have Iranian people ever been asked whether they want Israel destroyed? What if they say no? Who is to be held accountable for damages to our national security and interests if the wishes of Iranian people are different than those of the Islamic Republic?”
Many reformist activists have taken positions criticizing both Israel and Hamas. Azar Mansouri, who heads the Iran Reforms Front, chastised Iranian leaders for supporting Hamas but refraining from criticizing China for its oppression of Uyghur Muslims. “This double standard is the reason why the Iranian people are suspicious of the regime’s support for Hamas and instead support Israel’s actions against Iran-supported groups,” Mansouri wrote in Etemad newspaper.
Law professor and former parliamentarian Mahmoud Sadeghi criticized the regime for putting the interests of Lebanon and Palestine over “Iran’s national interests and security and the welfare of Iranian people … The Islamic Republic’s stated policy on Palestine is a referendum for Palestinians to state their wishes but will the Islamic Republic do the same for its own population? Will there be a referendum asking Iranian people what they think about Palestine, Lebanon, and Hamas?”
Commentator Koroush Ahmadi, in an op-ed in the reformist Shargh newspaper, wrote that the “Islamic republic should allow the issue to be debated in the civil society instead of blocking popular opinions and resorting to propaganda. It needs to cooperate with regional and international players to find a just and sustainable solution for the Palestinian dilemma. Any other policy will be futile.”
Former president Mohammad Khatami issued a statement noting that the Hamas attack on Israel “has changed the balance of power in the region.” He asked Iranian officials to “avoid rash policies and to make proper decisions based on national interests.” Khatami, who as president said Iran would accept any Middle East peace pact agreed to by the Palestinians, added that the new balance of power “must be used in favor of bringing a comprehensive peace in the region.” The Iranian people have shown in the “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement of last year that they too want freedom, democracy, and respect for human rights but only through peaceful and nonviolent methods. Violence, suppression of civilians, and the killing of innocent people, whether by Palestinian groups or by Israel, are against the stated objectives and methods of the many thousands of Iranians who have risked their lives to change their own repressive system of government.
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