Editor’s note: While the Stimson Center rarely publishes anonymous work, the author of this commentary is a Tehran-based analyst who has requested anonymity out of legitimate concern for their personal safety. The writer is known to appropriate staff, has a track record of reliable analysis, and is in a position to provide an otherwise unavailable perspective.
As the Sept. 16 anniversary of the death of Mahsa Amini approached, some analysts and activists outside Iran expected to see another wave of protests. The fact that they did not occur was the result of a cost-benefit analysis by the Iranian people and not a reflection of the regime’s popularity.
Iranian society is thirsty for change, but it is not going to resort to radicalism to achieve it. So far, the middle and the educated classes still believe that civil action and resistance will work, and that radical and revolutionary methods should be avoided. Proponents of another revolution are mainly abroad and will not suffer the consequences: collapse of the system, a long process of backward movement, violence, and anarchy. The alternative is structural reforms through non-violent, democratic and civil methods, i.e. a referendum for revision of the constitution.
The present political system may continue for the time being but even the regime and its insiders have realized that they have reached a dead end. Most of the system’s experienced technocrats and elites have been forced out of the decision-making process, appointed institutions have become mere guardians of the status quo and elected institutions that could effect change have been made irrelevant. According to reformist Javad Emam, “these elected institutions do not exist anymore.”
At the same time, the changes brought about by the “Women, Life, Freedom” movement are irreversible, the least of which are evident on the streets in the form of women with loose or no hijab despite all pressures, threats, and penalties. In this new atmosphere, small indications and signals point to a deeper and longer-term transformation.
August 19, 2023, marked the 70th anniversary of the U.S.-British coup against Mohammad Mossadegh, the prime minister who nationalized Iranian oil. This year, debates and discussions about this event were more extensive and inclusive. A number of sessions on the Clubhouse app were covered by print and electronic media.
In addition to historians, academics, journalists and political and social figures, ordinary people took part. The discussions were more focused on the future and how to achieve what was taken away from Iranians in 1953 – a genuine, indigenous, democratic experience. Even at the grassroots level, Iranians are starting to debate the features of suitable alternatives to the Islamic Republic.
Issues raised included lessons learned from democratic parliamentary elections and debates, and the freedom of expression in the media and in political gatherings, which were repressed by the Pahlavi regime after the coup and were never recognized and respected by the Islamic Republic after the 1979 revolution. None of the participants saw a role for the Islamic Republic in a future Iran. Differences were only about how to transition from the present regime to a democratic system.
While the short-term timeframe of future developments cannot be predicted with precision, Iranian society is like a patient that cries out in pain, demanding a cure. So far, the response of the regime has only been suppression and a failure to accept accountability for the victims of its repression.
An example is the September 30, 2022 Bloody Friday mass killing in the provincial capital of Zahedan, when security forces opened fire on civilians and killed over 100 people including 15 children. Although the regime has blamed the deaths on the Islamic State group Zahedan Sunni Friday prayer, Abdul-Hamid Esmail-Zehi blamed the regime. No one has been brought to justice and no one in the government has offered so much as an apology. The whole province of Sistan-Baluchistan remains in a state of siege with a strong presence of security forces – some dispatched from neighboring provinces – to prevent or control the outbreak of new protests. On the first anniversary of Bloody Friday, there were new clashes between protestors and security forces with some two dozen people injured.
In the days leading to the anniversary of Amini’s death, many other Iranian cities experienced virtual martial law, judging from the number of security forces stationed in major streets and squares. Arrests of political, student and labor activists started earlier. An Iranian reformist newspaper reported that at least 260 activists were picked up in Tehran on Sept. 15, 2023 “in addition to tens of arrests made in other cities and confirmed by security and judiciary officials.” The Human Rights Activists News Agency reported tens of arrests in even small cities in the days leading to the anniversary.
There were also reports of police using violence to break up groups of more than three people. The day after the mass arrests in Tehran, riot police attacked and dispersed families of the detainees who had gathered in front of police headquarters.
One dilemma for the regime is that although Mahsa Amini’s death triggered the protests, deaths were not limited to her. There were hundreds of others last fall, and the anniversaries of their deaths are coming in the next days and weeks. To prevent future protests, the authorities have arrested many family members and intimidated others not to hold any commemorations, even blocking public roads to cemeteries.
Clearly, the arrests and suppression are signs of weakness and desperation.
Inside Iran, the most prominent Iranian political activists are demanding peaceful change and above all, a constitutional referendum. Mostafa Tajzadeh, a veteran reformist activist, released a statement from Evin Prison calling for “positive, peaceful, non-violent and gradual political action and only using only democratic means like elections and referendum.”
While the regime may be celebrating its success in suppressing protests on the anniversary of Amini’s death, even regime insiders acknowledge that the crisis is continuing. Mohammad Hassan Asfari, deputy chairman of internal affairs in the parliament has openly warned that if the worsening economic situation continues “there will be new rounds of street protests soon, catching us all by surprise.”
Tajzadeh, reflecting on the mistakes made by Iran’s last autocratic ruler, asked in an interview conducted by fellow inmate Hossein Razaq: “Will he [Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei] repeat the Shah’s mistake or will he open the path for structural reforms before it is too late?”
Iran Regime Weathers Anniversary of Mahsa Amini’s Death as Iranians Seek an Alternative System
By Anonymous
Middle East & North Africa
Editor’s note: While the Stimson Center rarely publishes anonymous work, the author of this commentary is a Tehran-based analyst who has requested anonymity out of legitimate concern for their personal safety. The writer is known to appropriate staff, has a track record of reliable analysis, and is in a position to provide an otherwise unavailable perspective.
As the Sept. 16 anniversary of the death of Mahsa Amini approached, some analysts and activists outside Iran expected to see another wave of protests. The fact that they did not occur was the result of a cost-benefit analysis by the Iranian people and not a reflection of the regime’s popularity.
Iranian society is thirsty for change, but it is not going to resort to radicalism to achieve it. So far, the middle and the educated classes still believe that civil action and resistance will work, and that radical and revolutionary methods should be avoided. Proponents of another revolution are mainly abroad and will not suffer the consequences: collapse of the system, a long process of backward movement, violence, and anarchy. The alternative is structural reforms through non-violent, democratic and civil methods, i.e. a referendum for revision of the constitution.
The present political system may continue for the time being but even the regime and its insiders have realized that they have reached a dead end. Most of the system’s experienced technocrats and elites have been forced out of the decision-making process, appointed institutions have become mere guardians of the status quo and elected institutions that could effect change have been made irrelevant. According to reformist Javad Emam, “these elected institutions do not exist anymore.”
At the same time, the changes brought about by the “Women, Life, Freedom” movement are irreversible, the least of which are evident on the streets in the form of women with loose or no hijab despite all pressures, threats, and penalties. In this new atmosphere, small indications and signals point to a deeper and longer-term transformation.
August 19, 2023, marked the 70th anniversary of the U.S.-British coup against Mohammad Mossadegh, the prime minister who nationalized Iranian oil. This year, debates and discussions about this event were more extensive and inclusive. A number of sessions on the Clubhouse app were covered by print and electronic media.
In addition to historians, academics, journalists and political and social figures, ordinary people took part. The discussions were more focused on the future and how to achieve what was taken away from Iranians in 1953 – a genuine, indigenous, democratic experience. Even at the grassroots level, Iranians are starting to debate the features of suitable alternatives to the Islamic Republic.
Issues raised included lessons learned from democratic parliamentary elections and debates, and the freedom of expression in the media and in political gatherings, which were repressed by the Pahlavi regime after the coup and were never recognized and respected by the Islamic Republic after the 1979 revolution. None of the participants saw a role for the Islamic Republic in a future Iran. Differences were only about how to transition from the present regime to a democratic system.
While the short-term timeframe of future developments cannot be predicted with precision, Iranian society is like a patient that cries out in pain, demanding a cure. So far, the response of the regime has only been suppression and a failure to accept accountability for the victims of its repression.
An example is the September 30, 2022 Bloody Friday mass killing in the provincial capital of Zahedan, when security forces opened fire on civilians and killed over 100 people including 15 children. Although the regime has blamed the deaths on the Islamic State group Zahedan Sunni Friday prayer, Abdul-Hamid Esmail-Zehi blamed the regime. No one has been brought to justice and no one in the government has offered so much as an apology. The whole province of Sistan-Baluchistan remains in a state of siege with a strong presence of security forces – some dispatched from neighboring provinces – to prevent or control the outbreak of new protests. On the first anniversary of Bloody Friday, there were new clashes between protestors and security forces with some two dozen people injured.
In the days leading to the anniversary of Amini’s death, many other Iranian cities experienced virtual martial law, judging from the number of security forces stationed in major streets and squares. Arrests of political, student and labor activists started earlier. An Iranian reformist newspaper reported that at least 260 activists were picked up in Tehran on Sept. 15, 2023 “in addition to tens of arrests made in other cities and confirmed by security and judiciary officials.” The Human Rights Activists News Agency reported tens of arrests in even small cities in the days leading to the anniversary.
There were also reports of police using violence to break up groups of more than three people. The day after the mass arrests in Tehran, riot police attacked and dispersed families of the detainees who had gathered in front of police headquarters.
One dilemma for the regime is that although Mahsa Amini’s death triggered the protests, deaths were not limited to her. There were hundreds of others last fall, and the anniversaries of their deaths are coming in the next days and weeks. To prevent future protests, the authorities have arrested many family members and intimidated others not to hold any commemorations, even blocking public roads to cemeteries.
Clearly, the arrests and suppression are signs of weakness and desperation.
Inside Iran, the most prominent Iranian political activists are demanding peaceful change and above all, a constitutional referendum. Mostafa Tajzadeh, a veteran reformist activist, released a statement from Evin Prison calling for “positive, peaceful, non-violent and gradual political action and only using only democratic means like elections and referendum.”
While the regime may be celebrating its success in suppressing protests on the anniversary of Amini’s death, even regime insiders acknowledge that the crisis is continuing. Mohammad Hassan Asfari, deputy chairman of internal affairs in the parliament has openly warned that if the worsening economic situation continues “there will be new rounds of street protests soon, catching us all by surprise.”
Tajzadeh, reflecting on the mistakes made by Iran’s last autocratic ruler, asked in an interview conducted by fellow inmate Hossein Razaq: “Will he [Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei] repeat the Shah’s mistake or will he open the path for structural reforms before it is too late?”
Recent & Related