Understanding the Energy-Climate-Security Relationship

Examining how energy access, climate sensitivity, and state fragility combine and interact to generate insights into developing solutions
Understanding the Energy-Climate-Security Relationship
Overview
It is perhaps no coincidence that countries with high levels of conflict and instability also tend to have stubbornly low levels of economic development, exemplified by limited access to reliable electricity, and sustained and growing vulnerability to climate change. Improvements in access to reliable and inexpensive electricity may contribute to an improved security environment and help build greater resilience to the impact of climate change. While intuitively logical, it is not immediately clear from the available data how these overlapping factors interact and influence each other.

The Powering Peace Initiative looks at the role of UN Peace Operations, which operate with mandates to advance a range of peacebuilding, civilian protection, and conflict resolution efforts, and how the role of renewable energy transitions in these missions can potentially help advance these other goals. The five peace operations - in Mali, Central African Republic (CAR), the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), South Sudan and Somalia – all have annual budgets of roughly $1 billion and are often the largest single electricity providers and consumers in the regions where they are deployed. As these missions begin to transition from a reliance on diesel generators to renewable energy solutions, their energy footprint and purchasing power can serve as anchor customer to jump start new projects and increased access to clean power in these fragile settings.
Project Team
Key Takeaways

Patterns of underdevelopment in fragile states

Climate sensitivity, insecurity, and lack of access to reliable and sufficient electricity can severely limit human development. These three factors, while not directly correlated, do have causal connections and are prevalent in fragile states. Improvement across these areas is difficult and takes time, yet increased energy access offers a concrete entry point and should be a priority in promoting and sustaining economic development.

Increased use of renewable energy can limit exposure to the war economy

Renewable energy installations controlled by the UN can limit the opportunities for violent conflict by reducing reliance on diesel provisions, and reducing its exposure to armed groups and corrupt officials. Reduced dependence on diesel supply chains to fuel electricity generation at UN peace operations can also help mitigate adverse local climate effects.

The five largest UN peace operations are at greatest risk

These operations are in countries that are at greatest risk across the climate-energy-insecurity nexus. South Sudan, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia, and Mali are among the 12 countries with the highest Powering Peace Index Scores. Transitioning to renewable energy in these five UN peace operations, which each represent a significant share of national energy production and consumption, presents a unique opportunity to reduce climate impact, diminish drivers of conflict and expand access to electricity.

The Powering Peace Index

Understanding the scale of the problem is an important first step. The Powering Peace Index was developed to illustrate the combined level of risk each country faces under all three of these factors: climate sensitivity, access to electricity, and insecurity.

In some cases, slight adjustments were made to the underlying source data to facilitate more meaningful assessments. More information on the sources and methods used to develop the Powering Peace Dashboard and Index Score can be found on the project’s methodology page.

Focus on Peacekeeping Host Countries

The challenge posed by the confluence of these three factors is on stark display in countries hosting UN peacekeeping operations. These are places where the international community has a vested and committed interest in maintaining stability and mitigating conflict.

Relationships Between Factors

It’s important to understand the relationship between the three factors, as displayed in this graph below.

Header Photo: UNMISS inaugurates new solar farm to generate renewable energy in Juba, South Sudan in 2020.

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