Yun Sun
Senior Fellow and Co-Director
Legacy Program: Trade21
Year In Review
The year just concluded consisted largely of bark rather than bite as far as trade is concerned. Although the president did pull out of TPP, other threats, including tariffs on Germany, China or Mexico, and pulling out of the WTO, KORUS and NAFTA, remained just that – threats rather than actions. Opinion in the “swamp” …
Post-Ministerial Blues, or is it Reds?
I had planned this week to make some profound comments reflecting on the year past, but I can’t let a WTO Ministerial conference go by without saying a word or two about it. So, profundity will have to wait a bit. The most obvious thing to say about the meeting is that not much happened, …
William Reinsch Quoted on World Trade Organization Negotiations
Read article here.
Into The Weeds
One of my favorite TV shows a few years ago was Weeds, which featured the more or less dysfunctional Botwin family whose widowed mother of two teenage boys had taken to selling marijuana in her suburban neighborhood as a way to make ends meet after the sudden death of her husband. Eight seasons and many …
The False Choice of Free Trade vs. Protectionism
By William Reinsch For someone who labored in the weeds of trade policy for 40 years and who reads about it in the newspaper business section, having it now front page above the fold, along with numerous specialized publications devoted to it, is a bit of a shock. How did this backwater of economic policy …
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The Millennial Economy Part III: Global Value Chains and NAFTA
NAFTA is back in the news as negotiations were held in Mexico City last week. As expected, there were no major breakthroughs, and with none expected in December, it is clear governments are pushing serious talks into 2018 and possibly later as we approach the Mexican election. That kicks the can on possible termination well …
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The Millennial Economy Part II: How Trump Wants to Change the World
The president’s trip to Asia provided an opportunity to lay out a coherent explanation of his trade policy. Intrepid reporter Doug Palmer summarized that in a Politico piece on November 10: “President Donald Trump’s tough speech on trade today heralds the start of a new era in which the United States will not hesitate to …
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Nate Olson quoted on NAFTA renegotiation
Read the article here.
Olson: Trump’s Asia Visit Lacked Substance on Trade
For Immediate Release November 16, 2017 Contact: Jim Baird; 202.478.3413; [email protected] Nate Olson, Director of the Stimson Center’s Trade21 program, released video analyzing Trump’s recent trip to Asia and what it means for U.S. trade policies. To request an interview with Nate on the Trump administration’s trade policies –please contact [email protected]
Nate Olson Quoted on Trump Visit to Asia
Read the article here.
The Millennial Economy Part I: Global Value Chains
I don’t usually do commercials in these weekly pieces, but something important happened a few weeks ago that deserves a shout-out — the October 20 launch of the U.S. Global Value Chain Coalition. Composed primarily of retailers like Macy’s and Target, along with companies and associations representing various parts of the apparel industry, the coalition, …
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William Reinsch quoted on Trump, the Private Sector, and NAFTA
Read the article here.
William Reinsch Quoted on Preview of Trump Visit to Asia and Trade Deals
Read the article here.
China, Again
By William Reinsch Since the NAFTA negotiations are on vacation for another week, I’m going to take a break from that as well and talk about my longtime favorite subject, China. Thanks to the good offices of Matt Goodman and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), I was fortunate last week to spend …
William Resinch Quoted on NAFTA and the U.S. Trade Deficit with Mexico
Read the article here.
Trade: The Scapegoat for America’s Social Problems?
There was an odd flap a couple weeks ago after the leak of slides from Peter Navarro arguing that a “weakened manufacturing base,” presumably caused by trade, has caused a wide variety of social problems including not only the expected factory closings and job losses but also increased drug use, declining marriage rates, increases spousal …
Trade: The Scapegoat for America’s Social Problems? Read More »
William Reinsch Quoted on NAFTA Negotiations
Read the article here.
A Modern Fable for NAFTA
By William Reinsch Once upon a time there was an ant and a grasshopper, and they were friends. It was summer, and the grasshopper was having a grand time jumping and playing with his other friends while the ant was very busy storing up food and fuel for the winter. Periodically, the ant would tell …
There’s a Silver Cloud in Every Lining
By William Reinsch One of my favorite malapropisms growing up was, “There’s a silver cloud in every lining,” a twisted reminder that sometimes good news comes wrapped in smelly old newspaper. That’s a possibility that should be considered if the president decides to pull out of NAFTA, as he has threatened to do multiple times. …
Why Vote for a Copy When you can get the Original?
By William Reinsch This week I want to elaborate on a point I made in August regarding the Democrats’ trade policy statement, “A Better Deal on Trade and Jobs.” It is clear that trade will continue to be a front-page issue during the Trump administration, at least through next year’s midterm elections. As a result, …
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Nate Olson Quoted on NAFTA Proposal
Read the article here.
Playing the Blame Game on Trump and Trade
By William Reinsch Just when everyone is frothing at the mouth over what the Trump administration is doing on trade, along come some things that are not Trump’s fault (at least not yet). For example, just a few days ago the Commerce Department preliminarily announced countervailing duties of more than 200% (yes, you read …
A Series of Unfortunate Events (Lemony Snicket strikes again)
By William Reinsch We seem to be falling into an unfortunate pattern of trade events lately. First, somebody in the White House dreams up an astonishingly bad idea which is then promptly leaked by its opponents, also in the White House, which in turn sets off a vigorous business and agriculture community lobbying campaign against …
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William Reinsch interviewed on North Korea Sanctions
Fmr. National Foreign Trade Council President and Kelley Drye Sr. Int’l Trade Adviser William Reinsch and CNBC’s Rick Santelli discuss trade policy. Watch the interview here.
Dealing with the Devil?
By William Reinsch We swamp dwellers were surprised over the past two weeks to see the president confound his own party and make a deal with the Democrats on temporarily funding the government and raising the debt limit and then entertain deals on tax reform and DACA. There has been a lot of speculation …
Eric Miller Op-Ed on Asian Countries views on NAFTA and the US
The fate of NAFTA goes much beyond trade in North America. Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post aptly marked the launch of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) re-negotiation with a cartoon featuring Uncle Sam boxing a red-shorted fighter marked “NAFTA” while a large Chinese panda looks on. Recent travels by the author in …
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Taking Stock
It is now about eight months into the Trump presidency, and it’s time to take stock of his trade policy and accomplishments so far. The short answer is the policy is incoherent and the accomplishments few, but both deserve a deeper dive. The Trump trade policy began with the promise of transformation. Bad trade deals, …
Jobs to People or People to Jobs?
By William Reinsch I’ve said before that the current administration provides a target-rich environment for discussing trade issues, but every once in a while a moment comes along where there is a gap in the news. As I write this we are between NAFTA rounds, the China 301 is in the information gathering phase, and …
It’s Not Nice to Mess with the Market
By William Reinsch Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown made an important observation the other day in an interview. He noted the increase in steel imports since the president began threatening to cut them off (up 21.7% YTD from the same period in 2016) and made the point that since the president has not actually done anything, …
Apple Pie and Transparency? I Think Not
By William Reinsch I have a confession to make. I’m not a big fan of transparency. Even though it is routinely up there with apple pie as a beloved staple of Americana, I think it is a mistake to accord it much importance, particularly in the context of trade negotiations. I say that with some …
William Reinsch Quoted on NAFTA
In 1994, with trade fights raging over the North American Free Trade Agreement and the World Trade Organization, the White House faced an urgent problem: It was about to lose most of its power to block exports for national security reasons. The decades-old law governing so-called export controls was about to expire, and Congress was …
William Reinsch Quoted on US-China Trade Policy
BEING tough on China was a constant theme of President Donald Trump’s election campaign. On August 14th he had another chance to wield his presidential pen to show that he is making good on his promises—in this case of a “zero-tolerance policy on intellectual-property theft and forced technology transfer”. With the cameras rolling, he formally …
China, Again
By William Reinsch I had planned this week to write about something else, but the Trump administration’s action on China prompts me to return to what has long been one of my favorite topics. As those of you reading this know, the president on August 14 ordered the U.S. Trade Representative to consider initiating a …
William Reinsch Quoted on NAFTA Negotiations
During the 1992 presidential campaign, independent candidate Ross Perot, a Texas billionaire with a gift for folksy phrases, put an obscure trade deal between the U.S., Canada and Mexico smack into the heat of the American political debate. Click here to read the full piece.
Boy, Do My Feet Hurt
By William Reinsch The past few months I have spent most of my time in this column criticizing the Trump administration for various things it has done or said — and occasionally complimented it for not doing some of the things it said. Fair play, however, requires looking at Democratic policies as well and, like …
Nate Olson Quoted in Politico on Trade Negotiations
Morning Trade – A daily speed read on global trade news. -snip- There’s further concern that the Trump administration might feel “increasingly boxed in” and be driven to take extreme trade action “consequences be damned,” said Nate Olson, director of the Stimson Center’s Trade in the 21st Century initiative. Read the full article here.
The Return of the Pig
By William Reinsch Last week I wrote about the CED talks with the China and the implications of their apparent failure. I ended up rather blithely recommending that we needed a strategy rather than a succession of one-off transactional negotiations that might win individual battles but would lose the war. It occurred to me afterwards …
China: Keeping the Lipstick off the Pig
By William Reinsch Last week’s CED session with China was surprising because it avoided the standard outcome of these things — a long list of minor accomplishments which are hailed as significant breakthroughs. In other words, instead of putting lipstick on the pig, for the first time they just trotted out the pig. This is …
William Reinsch Quoted in CNBC on Trade Negotiations Between US and China
Got rice? That’s what China, the world’s largest consumer of rice, is now asking the U.S. For the first time ever, Asia’s economic giant will allow imports of American rice, the U.S. Department of Agriculture announced Thursday. That comes as a welcome signal after annual trade talks between the two nations broke down this week …
William Reinsch Quoted in CNBC on Trade Negotiations Between US and China Read More »
The Challenges Facing the New NAFTA Negotiation
By William Reinsch Two weeks ago I talked in general terms about some of the forces at play in the looming NAFTA negotiation. This week let’s take a closer look at some of the likely issues. These seem to fall into four groups: new stuff, the stuff individual specific groups want, process stuff, and the …
William Reinsch Interviewed on CNBC on US-China Trade
View the interview here.
Sanctions: The Never Ending Story
By William Reinsch Those of you who have followed what I have said and done over the years know that I have long been an opponent of unilateral sanctions. I learned that working for John Heinz in the Senate who thought they were almost always a lose-lose strategy. Because they are unilateral, the United States …
