Hizballah and Syria: Outgrowing the Proxy Relationship
This commentary was first published in the Spring 2007 edition of The Washington Quarterly. Terms such as “proxy” and “client” are often used to characterize the power dynamic between Hizballah and its allies Iran and Syria. These states’ vital resources and indispensable political sponsorship elevated Hizballah to the position it enjoys today. They each played […]
Demography and Democracy in the Middle East
By Elena McGovern – The Middle East’s demographic “youth bulge” may offer some new understanding about how societies transition to more democratic systems. According to new research by demographer Richard Cincotta, the proportion of young adults (15-29 years) in the working-age (15-64 years) population of a country approximates the relative level of risk of political […]
Iraq and America: Choices and Consequences
America’s engagement in Iraq will have profound consequences for US interests and American national security for the foreseeable future. The US-led invasion that deposed the regime of Saddam Hussein, the shifting priorities of the US occupation in attempting to restore security and establish a more representative government, and the reluctance of Iraq’s neighbors and so much […]
Peu d’espoir pour l’Irak
This commentary was first published on December 5, 2006 in Les Echos. Il est temps de renoncer à nos espoirs de voir la commission Baker-Hamilton sortir une baguette magique qui résoudrait la crise irakienne. Elle a tout d’abord dû régler le différend entre républicains et démocrates en proposant un compromis sur au moins une question, […]
Lebanon: Hizbollah’s Enduring Myth
This commentary was first published in the November 2006 edition of Carnegie’s Arab Reform Bulletin. A version in Arabic is available here. Serious thinking about reforming Lebanon’s fragile and inefficient system of governance has been among the casualties of the recent war. Political reform has never topped the agenda of Lebanon’s leaders, including the one actor […]
Prospects For Ahmadinejad’s Call For More Rapid Population Growth In Iran
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s recent remarks, appealing to Iranian legislators to take steps to boost the country’s population from 70 to 120 million and condemning the country’s recent attainment of the two-child family, raise questions about the Islamic republic’s demographic future. Because Iranian women’s average fertility is near (and perhaps below) the replacement level, demographers […]
Can the United States Contain Iran?
This commentary was published in the Daily Star on December 5, 2006. With no sign of Iran retreating on its nuclear program and growing acknowledgment of the risks and limitations of military options, the Bush administration appears to be gearing up for a suboptimal policy that it long rejected: Iran’s containment. Its strategy relies on […]
Iraq: Hard Choices, Real Consequences
This commentary was also published in the Daily Star on December 29, 2006 The daily toll of events in Iraq and the intensity of media coverage from Baghdad, combined with the current political campaign, make it hard to allow ideas on the Iraq crisis to be considered with the sober and somber deliberation they deserve. […]