Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s recent remarks, appealing to Iranian legislators to take steps to boost the country’s population from 70 to 120 million and condemning the country’s recent attainment of the two-child family, raise questions about the Islamic republic’s demographic future. Because Iranian women’s average fertility is near (and perhaps below) the replacement level, demographers project the country’s youthful population (15-to-29 year olds comprise about one-half of all adults) is on track to develop, within a decade, into an older, more manageable age structure resembling those of East Asia’s industrializing economies in the 1990s. Should it remain on this path, Iran’s population will evolve away from the politically volatile age structures plaguing neighboring Iraq, Syria and Saudi Arabia to the west and south, and Afghanistan and Pakistan to its north and east (Figure 1). While Ahmadinejad may intend to reverse this trend, he could find it hard to limit the provision of family planning services, which are popular and fully integrated into the local health infrastructure. And there is little evidence suggesting that a shift to pro-natalist policies would have a substantial effect on Iranian women’s fertility. Ahmadinejad’s next moves to influence fertility — if they materialize — may demonstrate the extent of the Iranian president’s influence on domestic programs, the popularity of hard-line policies, and the depth of his relationship with the Shiite theocracy.
Middle East, North Africa
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s recent remarks, appealing to Iranian legislators to take steps to boost the country’s population from 70 to 120 million and condemning the country’s recent attainment of the two-child family, raise questions about the Islamic republic’s demographic future. Because Iranian women’s average fertility is near (and perhaps below) the replacement level, demographers project the country’s youthful population (15-to-29 year olds comprise about one-half of all adults) is on track to develop, within a decade, into an older, more manageable age structure resembling those of East Asia’s industrializing economies in the 1990s. Should it remain on this path, Iran’s population will evolve away from the politically volatile age structures plaguing neighboring Iraq, Syria and Saudi Arabia to the west and south, and Afghanistan and Pakistan to its north and east (Figure 1). While Ahmadinejad may intend to reverse this trend, he could find it hard to limit the provision of family planning services, which are popular and fully integrated into the local health infrastructure. And there is little evidence suggesting that a shift to pro-natalist policies would have a substantial effect on Iranian women’s fertility. Ahmadinejad’s next moves to influence fertility — if they materialize — may demonstrate the extent of the Iranian president’s influence on domestic programs, the popularity of hard-line policies, and the depth of his relationship with the Shiite theocracy.
Recent & Related
The UN Annually Votes on Ending the US Embargo on Cuba. What Does it Mean for Unilateral Sanctions and Their Impact on Human Rights?
Experts React: The Midterms and America’s Place in the World
The Lame-Duck Period is Full of Peril in the War on Iran
Is Reforming the UNSC Realistic? Article 27(3) of the UN Charter Offers a Starting Point.
Beyond the Populist Zeitgeist
A New Transatlantic Equilibrium
Forging a European Foreign Policy
A Superpower in Decline
What Is Going on in Cybersecurity?
The Implications of Ukraine’s Starshield Access for the US Military
Egypt’s Parallel Inc. & the Myth of Sovereign Efficiency
Four Years to 2030: Can Member States Deliver Affordable and Clean Energy for All?
Find an Expert
Home to more than 100 scholars and global affiliates, the Stimson Center is proud to be a magnet for the world’s leading experts on the most pressing foreign policy and national security issues of our time. Explore our experts and their work.