From Iraq to Afghanistan, the United States ruled the skies for more than three decades. This dominance created an entire generation of military leaders and policymakers who have known only uncontested skies, making the ability to project overwhelming airpower a bedrock assumption of U.S. planning. Against a near-peer adversary like China, that comforting assumption of quick air superiority no longer holds. The United States now needs new operational concepts that acknowledge this reality while preserving the ability to fight effectively.
When Adm. Samuel Paparo, commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, testified before Congress earlier this year, he said that, in a conflict with China, his task would be to “contest air superiority” and provide only “windows of air superiority”—short periods when U.S. forces could operate without “prohibitive interference” from Chinese air and missile threats. This plan marks a break from decades of U.S. military strategy, which assumed the United States could quickly seize control of the skies and turn that advantage into decisive victory. While necessary given China’s growing ability to challenge U.S. air dominance, Paparo’s remarks stop short of offering a clear operational concept for effective operations.
The answer is a new phased strategy—what we call culmination-based air control (CBAC)—that begins with air denial and transitions into air superiority. In the opening stages, denial-based forces function as an ablative layer, absorbing and degrading an adversary’s initial attacks in order to buy time and create openings for traditional fighters and bombers to exploit. A U.S.-led air campaign would thus progress from denial through windows of air superiority to sustained control of the skies. This approach would provide a robust, cost-effective deterrent against China while reducing escalation risks and preserving strategic options for both offense and defense.
Header image: Two F-35s fly off the coast of northern California during Exercise Bamboo Eagle 25-3 on Aug. 4, 2025. Photo credit: U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Tryphena Mayhugh via DVIDS; Public Domain.
Read the full article on Lawfare.
