Iran’s decision to strike directly against Israel was a long time coming, following years of Israeli assassinations of Iranian military and nuclear officials and attacks on facilities in Iran.
It was nevertheless surprising because the world had grown accustomed to an Iranian failure to respond directly against Israel and presumed that this would be the case again.
In the past, Iran has largely attacked Israel through partners and proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Hezbollah retaliated for the Israeli assassination of its then leader, Abbas Musawi, in 1992 by striking the Israeli embassy and other Jewish targets in Argentina. Hezbollah is also believed responsible for a lethal attack on Israeli tourists in Bulgaria in 2012 in response to Israel’s assassination of a half dozen Iranian nuclear scientists on Iranian soil.
Yet the Israeli attack April 1 on a building in Damascus within the Iranian diplomatic compound and its killing of seven Iranian officers, including two generals, evidently crossed a line for even the risk-averse leadership in Tehran.
The long shadow war between Israel and Iran is now out in the open.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been heavily criticized by hardliners within Iran in the past for threatening “a painful response” and “severe revenge” for U.S. and Israeli assassinations of Iranian officials, but not following through.
This was particularly the case after Israel killed Sayyed Razi Mousavi, the most senior Iranian commander in Syria, on Christmas Day, 2023. As Iranian journalist Mohammad Mazhari wrote on our Stimson Center Middle East Perspectives website, a hardline social media activist named Towhid Azizi warned Khamenei that “If you don’t respond to the assassination of Razi Mousavi swiftly, clearly, and with a significantly stronger reaction, you will face demise. Understand your predicament and reconsider your strategic patience!’”
Khamenei owes his longevity in part to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), whose position in Iran has steadily expanded during his nearly 35 years in power. Had Iran not retaliated for the April 1 killing of Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi and six others in Damascus, Israel might have seen a green light to continue to pick off IRGC leaders and Khamenei’s own position and plans for his succession could have been undermined.
At the same time, Iran’s decision to target Israel directly with such a massive barrage risks an Israeli response that will be even more destabilizing to Khamenei’s regime. His staunch opposition to Israel and support of an “Axis of Resistance” of Arab proxies has alienated much of the Iranian population. The cost to Iran in terms of international condemnation and lost economic opportunities has already been painfully high.
In this tense environment, successful efforts to prevent further escalation will likely depend on how much damage is caused by the Iranian strikes. If Israel, with U.S. and other help, succeeds in shooting down most of the drones and missiles — as appears to have been the case — it may be possible to prevent an all-out war between Iran and its partners and Israel and its allies.
Iran’s Mission to the United Nations, in a post on the social media site X before the Iranian drones reached Israeli airspace, suggested that Iran would stop at this if Israel did not respond.
The post said the Iranian retaliation was in accordance with “Article 51 of the UN Charter pertaining to legitimate defense” and “in response to the Zionist regime’s aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus. The matter can be deemed concluded. However, should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe. It is a conflict between Iran and the rogue Israeli regime, from which the U.S. MUST STAY AWAY!”
Even before the April 1 Israeli attack in Damascus, the U.S. and Iran had been exchanging messages aimed at preventing regional escalation and safeguarding U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria. On April 12, President Joe Biden publicly urged Iran not to strike Israel even as intelligence mounted that Iran was preparing the assault and the U.S. moved new military assets to the region. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in a statement issued after the barrage, condemned the Iranian attack on Israel and added, “While we do not seek escalation, we will continue to support Israel’s defense, and as the President made clear, we will defend U.S. personnel. I will be consulting with allies and partners in the region and around the world in the hours and days ahead.”
The Biden administration will now try to convince the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to retaliate for Iran’s retaliation. Given the strained relations between the U.S. president and the Israeli leader, however, it may be difficult for Biden to do so. Already, some Washington hawks are calling for Israel to carry out strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities – something Netanyahu has threatened repeatedly in the past.
The crisis demonstrates the validity of concerns that the failure to achieve a swift cease-fire in Gaza would lead to a wider conflict between Israel and Iran.
The war between Iran and Israel and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict didn’t start on Oct. 7, 2023, but Israel’s disproportionate response to the unprecedented Hamas attacks and the massive number of Palestinian civilian deaths have outraged international opinion and alienated many Americans including long-time Israel supporters.
In this situation, Iran might have been better advised to let Netanyahu continue to dig a bigger hole for himself and his right-wing policies rather than changing the subject and making Israel the perceived victim of new Iranian aggression. But that bridge has now been crossed and a region that has seen too many wars and crises is unlikely to find a stable equilibrium anytime soon. The losers will be ordinary Israelis, Palestinians, Iranians, and all others who seek a normal life.
Read the article in the Haaretz
How to Prevent All-out War Between Iran and Israel
By Barbara Slavin
Middle East & North Africa
Originally published in Haaretz
Iran’s decision to strike directly against Israel was a long time coming, following years of Israeli assassinations of Iranian military and nuclear officials and attacks on facilities in Iran.
It was nevertheless surprising because the world had grown accustomed to an Iranian failure to respond directly against Israel and presumed that this would be the case again.
In the past, Iran has largely attacked Israel through partners and proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Hezbollah retaliated for the Israeli assassination of its then leader, Abbas Musawi, in 1992 by striking the Israeli embassy and other Jewish targets in Argentina. Hezbollah is also believed responsible for a lethal attack on Israeli tourists in Bulgaria in 2012 in response to Israel’s assassination of a half dozen Iranian nuclear scientists on Iranian soil.
Yet the Israeli attack April 1 on a building in Damascus within the Iranian diplomatic compound and its killing of seven Iranian officers, including two generals, evidently crossed a line for even the risk-averse leadership in Tehran.
The long shadow war between Israel and Iran is now out in the open.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been heavily criticized by hardliners within Iran in the past for threatening “a painful response” and “severe revenge” for U.S. and Israeli assassinations of Iranian officials, but not following through.
This was particularly the case after Israel killed Sayyed Razi Mousavi, the most senior Iranian commander in Syria, on Christmas Day, 2023. As Iranian journalist Mohammad Mazhari wrote on our Stimson Center Middle East Perspectives website, a hardline social media activist named Towhid Azizi warned Khamenei that “If you don’t respond to the assassination of Razi Mousavi swiftly, clearly, and with a significantly stronger reaction, you will face demise. Understand your predicament and reconsider your strategic patience!’”
Khamenei owes his longevity in part to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), whose position in Iran has steadily expanded during his nearly 35 years in power. Had Iran not retaliated for the April 1 killing of Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi and six others in Damascus, Israel might have seen a green light to continue to pick off IRGC leaders and Khamenei’s own position and plans for his succession could have been undermined.
At the same time, Iran’s decision to target Israel directly with such a massive barrage risks an Israeli response that will be even more destabilizing to Khamenei’s regime. His staunch opposition to Israel and support of an “Axis of Resistance” of Arab proxies has alienated much of the Iranian population. The cost to Iran in terms of international condemnation and lost economic opportunities has already been painfully high.
In this tense environment, successful efforts to prevent further escalation will likely depend on how much damage is caused by the Iranian strikes. If Israel, with U.S. and other help, succeeds in shooting down most of the drones and missiles — as appears to have been the case — it may be possible to prevent an all-out war between Iran and its partners and Israel and its allies.
Iran’s Mission to the United Nations, in a post on the social media site X before the Iranian drones reached Israeli airspace, suggested that Iran would stop at this if Israel did not respond.
The post said the Iranian retaliation was in accordance with “Article 51 of the UN Charter pertaining to legitimate defense” and “in response to the Zionist regime’s aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus. The matter can be deemed concluded. However, should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe. It is a conflict between Iran and the rogue Israeli regime, from which the U.S. MUST STAY AWAY!”
Even before the April 1 Israeli attack in Damascus, the U.S. and Iran had been exchanging messages aimed at preventing regional escalation and safeguarding U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria. On April 12, President Joe Biden publicly urged Iran not to strike Israel even as intelligence mounted that Iran was preparing the assault and the U.S. moved new military assets to the region. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in a statement issued after the barrage, condemned the Iranian attack on Israel and added, “While we do not seek escalation, we will continue to support Israel’s defense, and as the President made clear, we will defend U.S. personnel. I will be consulting with allies and partners in the region and around the world in the hours and days ahead.”
The Biden administration will now try to convince the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to retaliate for Iran’s retaliation. Given the strained relations between the U.S. president and the Israeli leader, however, it may be difficult for Biden to do so. Already, some Washington hawks are calling for Israel to carry out strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities – something Netanyahu has threatened repeatedly in the past.
The crisis demonstrates the validity of concerns that the failure to achieve a swift cease-fire in Gaza would lead to a wider conflict between Israel and Iran.
The war between Iran and Israel and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict didn’t start on Oct. 7, 2023, but Israel’s disproportionate response to the unprecedented Hamas attacks and the massive number of Palestinian civilian deaths have outraged international opinion and alienated many Americans including long-time Israel supporters.
In this situation, Iran might have been better advised to let Netanyahu continue to dig a bigger hole for himself and his right-wing policies rather than changing the subject and making Israel the perceived victim of new Iranian aggression. But that bridge has now been crossed and a region that has seen too many wars and crises is unlikely to find a stable equilibrium anytime soon. The losers will be ordinary Israelis, Palestinians, Iranians, and all others who seek a normal life.
Read the article in the Haaretz
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