Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida caught everyone by surprise when he announced his intention to step down as he concluded his current term as the leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) during his press conference on August 14, 2024. The LDP will choose its new leader in late September—September 20 and 27 have been floated as the potential election day—as Kishida concludes his term.
Kishida took office in 2021 as Japan struggled to pull itself out of the deep societal and economic impact of COVID-19. As the prime minister, Kishida had a thankless job—he had to lead Japan navigate through an external environment in which Japan, for the first time in its postwar era, faced multi-layer external threats while constantly under pressure to deliver tangible benefits to the Japanese public who had been exhausted by the country’s prolonged economic decline which COVID-19-related restriction further aggravated. Soft-spoken and long-held reputation as being a consensus builder rather than a strategic-thinking visionary, Kishida faced many suspects who questioned his ability to lead Japan in such uncertain times.
Defying the odds, however, Kishida’s biggest successes were in his role as Japan’s “diplomat-in-chief”. As he methodically took measures to implement the bold vision for Japan in international community—Japan as the “first -country” and “defender of the commons”–set by late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, he leveraged his political style of emphasizing the dialogue to reenergize Tokyo’s diplomacy, revitalizing Tokyo’s engagement with partner countries which most importantly culminated in a comprehensive modernization of Tokyo’s alliance with Washington, heralded by Kishida’s official visit to Washington DC in April 2022 when U.S. president Joe Biden and Kishida launched several new initiatives. In particular, his quiet yet nonetheless significant decision to reciprocate South Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol’s bold move to extend an olive branch to Japan allowed Japan and South Korea to finally make a breakthrough, paving the way to the August 2023 U.S.-Japan-South Korea trilateral summit in Camp David and institutionalize the trilateral cooperation.
Furthermore, Kishida’s image as a moderate enabled him to lead his government through the most dramatic decisions to reorient Japan’s national security policy. These achievements include the modernization of Japan’s National Security Strategy and accompanying two defense planning documents (National Defense Strategy and Defense Build-up Plan) which included Japan’s decision to introduce counter-attack capabilities and the defense spending increase plan toward 2% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), enactment of Economic Security Promotion Law, and further relaxation of the Three Principles of Defense Equipment Transfer, to name a few. These shifts in Japan’s national security policy laid the foundation for a recent decision announced at the Security Consultative Committee (SCC) meeting in Tokyo (July 28, 2024) to upgrade the U.S. Forces in Japan to the Joint Force Command which, as U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin put it, “the most significant change to U.S. Forces Japan since its creation, and one of the strongest, improvements in our military ties with Japan in 70 years.”
In contrast, Kishida struggled with his domestic agenda throughout his tenure. Depending on imports for everything from fuel to groceries, a weaker Japanese Yen worsened the inflation in Japan, putting enormous pressure on average Japanese households. While the Japanese public was more than happy to see Kishida play an exceptional host to foreign policy events such as the 2023 G7 Summit in Hiroshima, such excitement quickly paled before the reality that the day-to-day issues that the voters cared about—inflation, widening economic gaps, pension reform, to name a few—saw very little tangible progress.
Worse yet, Kishida had suffered from political scandals within his own party. In particular, the revelation of widespread practices within the LDP of underreporting of the revenues from political donations for politicians’ personal benefits, which included many of Kishida’s own cabinet and sub-cabinet members, reignited strong outcry against the LDP from the public. Kishida had attempted to quell the criticism by directing the LDP’s rank and files to disband the factions—political groups within the LDP that had long considered to be breeding grounds for corruption like this—and even set the example by disbanding his own first, but such efforts were not enough to regain the confidence of Japanese voters. His cabinet approval rating dipped to less than 20% by mid-June according to some Japanese media polls. Even though the latest poll released by Nihon Hoso Kyokai (NHK)–considered to be the most politically neutral—in early August showed that his approval rating had recovered somewhat to 25%, it still was considered “too low” for him to lead the party into the next Lower House election.
During his press conference, Kishida expressed his desire to see the LDP party presidential election with many candidates having robust debate on his/her vision as the next leader of Japan. He called for transparency and generational change. Indeed, Kishida’s decision to step aside, as unexpected as it was, did demonstrate to the public that the LPD has the capacity to change from within and still deserves the confidence of Japanese voters.
Embattled Kishida Stepping Down: Implications for Japan’s Path Forward
By Yuki Tatsumi
Japan
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida caught everyone by surprise when he announced his intention to step down as he concluded his current term as the leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) during his press conference on August 14, 2024. The LDP will choose its new leader in late September—September 20 and 27 have been floated as the potential election day—as Kishida concludes his term.
Kishida took office in 2021 as Japan struggled to pull itself out of the deep societal and economic impact of COVID-19. As the prime minister, Kishida had a thankless job—he had to lead Japan navigate through an external environment in which Japan, for the first time in its postwar era, faced multi-layer external threats while constantly under pressure to deliver tangible benefits to the Japanese public who had been exhausted by the country’s prolonged economic decline which COVID-19-related restriction further aggravated. Soft-spoken and long-held reputation as being a consensus builder rather than a strategic-thinking visionary, Kishida faced many suspects who questioned his ability to lead Japan in such uncertain times.
Defying the odds, however, Kishida’s biggest successes were in his role as Japan’s “diplomat-in-chief”. As he methodically took measures to implement the bold vision for Japan in international community—Japan as the “first -country” and “defender of the commons”–set by late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, he leveraged his political style of emphasizing the dialogue to reenergize Tokyo’s diplomacy, revitalizing Tokyo’s engagement with partner countries which most importantly culminated in a comprehensive modernization of Tokyo’s alliance with Washington, heralded by Kishida’s official visit to Washington DC in April 2022 when U.S. president Joe Biden and Kishida launched several new initiatives. In particular, his quiet yet nonetheless significant decision to reciprocate South Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol’s bold move to extend an olive branch to Japan allowed Japan and South Korea to finally make a breakthrough, paving the way to the August 2023 U.S.-Japan-South Korea trilateral summit in Camp David and institutionalize the trilateral cooperation.
Furthermore, Kishida’s image as a moderate enabled him to lead his government through the most dramatic decisions to reorient Japan’s national security policy. These achievements include the modernization of Japan’s National Security Strategy and accompanying two defense planning documents (National Defense Strategy and Defense Build-up Plan) which included Japan’s decision to introduce counter-attack capabilities and the defense spending increase plan toward 2% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), enactment of Economic Security Promotion Law, and further relaxation of the Three Principles of Defense Equipment Transfer, to name a few. These shifts in Japan’s national security policy laid the foundation for a recent decision announced at the Security Consultative Committee (SCC) meeting in Tokyo (July 28, 2024) to upgrade the U.S. Forces in Japan to the Joint Force Command which, as U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin put it, “the most significant change to U.S. Forces Japan since its creation, and one of the strongest, improvements in our military ties with Japan in 70 years.”
In contrast, Kishida struggled with his domestic agenda throughout his tenure. Depending on imports for everything from fuel to groceries, a weaker Japanese Yen worsened the inflation in Japan, putting enormous pressure on average Japanese households. While the Japanese public was more than happy to see Kishida play an exceptional host to foreign policy events such as the 2023 G7 Summit in Hiroshima, such excitement quickly paled before the reality that the day-to-day issues that the voters cared about—inflation, widening economic gaps, pension reform, to name a few—saw very little tangible progress.
Worse yet, Kishida had suffered from political scandals within his own party. In particular, the revelation of widespread practices within the LDP of underreporting of the revenues from political donations for politicians’ personal benefits, which included many of Kishida’s own cabinet and sub-cabinet members, reignited strong outcry against the LDP from the public. Kishida had attempted to quell the criticism by directing the LDP’s rank and files to disband the factions—political groups within the LDP that had long considered to be breeding grounds for corruption like this—and even set the example by disbanding his own first, but such efforts were not enough to regain the confidence of Japanese voters. His cabinet approval rating dipped to less than 20% by mid-June according to some Japanese media polls. Even though the latest poll released by Nihon Hoso Kyokai (NHK)–considered to be the most politically neutral—in early August showed that his approval rating had recovered somewhat to 25%, it still was considered “too low” for him to lead the party into the next Lower House election.
During his press conference, Kishida expressed his desire to see the LDP party presidential election with many candidates having robust debate on his/her vision as the next leader of Japan. He called for transparency and generational change. Indeed, Kishida’s decision to step aside, as unexpected as it was, did demonstrate to the public that the LPD has the capacity to change from within and still deserves the confidence of Japanese voters.
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