Editor’s note: While the Stimson Center rarely publishes anonymous work, the author of this commentary is a Tehran-based analyst who has requested anonymity out of legitimate concern for their personal safety. The writer is known to appropriate staff, has a track record of reliable analysis, and is in a position to provide an otherwise unavailable perspective.
The presidency was supposed to be Ebrahim Raisi’s stepping stone to becoming Iran’s next Supreme Leader. Instead, it is turning out to be a banana peel, with Raisi’s multiple stumbles making the current leader’s second son, Mojtaba Khamenei, his father’s likeliest successor at this point.
On April 3 at the end of the Persian New Year holiday, education minister Yousef Nouri handed in his letter of resignation. Iranian newspapers from a spectrum of political leanings questioned the “resignation,” implying that Nouri was in fact fired for a number of failures, most egregiously not paying wages and end-of-year bonuses to some one million Iranian teachers until March 20, the eve of the New Year.
Nouri is not the only one to be dumped from Raisi’s 20-month cabinet. Hojjatollah Abdolmaleki, the minister for labor, welfare and social affairs, was the first to resign in July 2022, under fire for failing to keep pensions rising fast enough to keep pace with Iran’s galloping inflation. In November 2022, roads and transportation minister Rostam Qasemi resigned, allegedly for health reasons, after photos of him vacationing in Malaysia with his unveiled girlfriend appeared on social media.
On April 11, Iranian state television said Raisi had also replaced his minister of agriculture and the head of the planning and budget department.
Unlike the previous reshuffles, however, criticism is now targeting Raisi himself, eroding his credibility and qualifications for the real prize in the Islamic Republic — the Supreme Leadership — after soon-to-be 84-year-old incumbent Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, passes away.
Two years ago, when Raisi first announced his candidacy for president, he seemed a likely candidate for the leadership as well. The Guardian Council, a cleric-dominated body that vets all candidates for elective office in Iran, disqualified Raisi’s most qualified competitors to ensure that Raisi — a loyal hardliner, former prosecutor, and then judiciary chief — won the race.
After the death of former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani in 2017 and former judiciary head Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi’s death a year later, Raisi’s main rivals as successors to Khamenei at the time appeared to be Expediency Council Chairman Sadegh Larijani and Mojtaba Khamenei. Larijani, however, was sidelined after he openly criticized the Guardian Council for disqualifying his brother, former parliament speaker Ali Larijani, from competing in the 2021 presidential race.
Raisi won easily in 2021 in an election with the lowest turnout in the history of the Islamic Republic. Many analysts warned at the time that the presidency was actually a trap Mojtaba had set for Raisi. Among them was Hassan Khomeini, a grandson of Iran’s first Supreme Leader. Raisi “will not be able to solve any problems and will leave the scene crippled and dishonored,” he said.
Two years later, those predictions appear to be coming true. Raisi is under fire for repeated and catastrophic failures in the economy, for unleashing so-called morality police on Iranian women and girls, sparking unprecedented protests after the death of a young woman in police custody, and increasing Iran’s reliance on China and Russia by failing to revive the 2015 nuclear deal. Parliamentarian Gholamali Jafarzadeh Imanabadi, a member of Raisi’s own hardliner camp, has predicted that Raisi “will be the first one-term president” in post-revolution Iran (not counting Abolhassan Bani-Sadr, who was impeached in 1980 after only one year in office). Mehdi Asgari, another hardliner MP, has gone even further, telling his constituency that Raisi is “committing economic genocide of the Iranian people” and is responsible for the worst inflation in Iran since World War II.
Some in the hardline camp, which supported Raisi’s bid two years ago, now refer to him as “the worst president ever, because mismanagement and inefficiency are running wild across the government.” Reformists have been even more direct, calling on the president to “stand down before it is too late and the country is destroyed” and urging a new and fairer election to replace him.
Raisi has responded, labeling the criticisms “the products of false claims and wrong writings.” This has only backfired and led to jokes about his incompetence by many, including the prominent social activist and whistleblower Saba Azarpeik, who directly addressed Raisi on her Instagram page. “You are mistaken,” she wrote. “Who tricked you with this banana peel under your feet to believe that you are immune from criticisms?”
Some hard-line journalists are already calling Raisi a lame duck, noting that the secretary of the Supreme Council of National Security, Ali Shamkhani, has marginalized Raisi’s foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, and taken the lead in achieving diplomatic breakthroughs like the normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia. A recent editorial in the conservative Jomhouri Eslami newspaper addressed Raisi by name and admonished him to revise his policy on the Iran nuclear deal and financial reforms demanded by the Financial Action Task Force, an international body that polices money laundering and terrorism finance. “Look at the shocking situation to realize that the country is not in a good situation,” the editorial said. “You should not insist on your failed policies.”
The main beneficiary of Raisi’s mistakes is Mojtaba Khamenei. Despite the awkward optics of succeeding his father in a system that replaced a hereditary monarchy, Mojtaba has built strong links with the most powerful institution in Iran, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), and recently obtained the necessary clerical credential required for the job: the status of Ayatollah.
His father was elevated to that status only after he became Supreme Leader in 1989 in a series of maneuvers orchestrated by Rafsanjani, who then was elected as Iran’s president. According to Iran’s constitution, an elected clerical body, the Assembly of Experts, is supposed to choose the Supreme Leader. At present, however, that assembly is not decisive, and the IRGC and other security services will want to insure that a regime insider takes the job. Moreover, at age 54, Mojtaba is young enough to rule for decades, making him an ideal candidate to prolong the military and security services’ privileged status with regard to both economic and political benefits.
It seems that less than two years into his presidency, Raisi has made more enemies than friends, even among his own base of supporters. He is being made the fall guy for unpopular and unsuccessful decisions that are hardly his sole responsibility. As Iran approaches parliamentary elections in February 2024, attacks on Raisi are likely to continue to the benefit of Mojtaba Khamenei.
Photo: Mostafa Meraji.
Raisi Failures Boost Mojtaba Khamenei’s Chances of Becoming Iran’s Next Supreme Leader
Middle East & North Africa
Editor’s note: While the Stimson Center rarely publishes anonymous work, the author of this commentary is a Tehran-based analyst who has requested anonymity out of legitimate concern for their personal safety. The writer is known to appropriate staff, has a track record of reliable analysis, and is in a position to provide an otherwise unavailable perspective.
The presidency was supposed to be Ebrahim Raisi’s stepping stone to becoming Iran’s next Supreme Leader. Instead, it is turning out to be a banana peel, with Raisi’s multiple stumbles making the current leader’s second son, Mojtaba Khamenei, his father’s likeliest successor at this point.
On April 3 at the end of the Persian New Year holiday, education minister Yousef Nouri handed in his letter of resignation. Iranian newspapers from a spectrum of political leanings questioned the “resignation,” implying that Nouri was in fact fired for a number of failures, most egregiously not paying wages and end-of-year bonuses to some one million Iranian teachers until March 20, the eve of the New Year.
Nouri is not the only one to be dumped from Raisi’s 20-month cabinet. Hojjatollah Abdolmaleki, the minister for labor, welfare and social affairs, was the first to resign in July 2022, under fire for failing to keep pensions rising fast enough to keep pace with Iran’s galloping inflation. In November 2022, roads and transportation minister Rostam Qasemi resigned, allegedly for health reasons, after photos of him vacationing in Malaysia with his unveiled girlfriend appeared on social media.
On April 11, Iranian state television said Raisi had also replaced his minister of agriculture and the head of the planning and budget department.
Unlike the previous reshuffles, however, criticism is now targeting Raisi himself, eroding his credibility and qualifications for the real prize in the Islamic Republic — the Supreme Leadership — after soon-to-be 84-year-old incumbent Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, passes away.
Two years ago, when Raisi first announced his candidacy for president, he seemed a likely candidate for the leadership as well. The Guardian Council, a cleric-dominated body that vets all candidates for elective office in Iran, disqualified Raisi’s most qualified competitors to ensure that Raisi — a loyal hardliner, former prosecutor, and then judiciary chief — won the race.
After the death of former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani in 2017 and former judiciary head Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi’s death a year later, Raisi’s main rivals as successors to Khamenei at the time appeared to be Expediency Council Chairman Sadegh Larijani and Mojtaba Khamenei. Larijani, however, was sidelined after he openly criticized the Guardian Council for disqualifying his brother, former parliament speaker Ali Larijani, from competing in the 2021 presidential race.
Raisi won easily in 2021 in an election with the lowest turnout in the history of the Islamic Republic. Many analysts warned at the time that the presidency was actually a trap Mojtaba had set for Raisi. Among them was Hassan Khomeini, a grandson of Iran’s first Supreme Leader. Raisi “will not be able to solve any problems and will leave the scene crippled and dishonored,” he said.
Two years later, those predictions appear to be coming true. Raisi is under fire for repeated and catastrophic failures in the economy, for unleashing so-called morality police on Iranian women and girls, sparking unprecedented protests after the death of a young woman in police custody, and increasing Iran’s reliance on China and Russia by failing to revive the 2015 nuclear deal. Parliamentarian Gholamali Jafarzadeh Imanabadi, a member of Raisi’s own hardliner camp, has predicted that Raisi “will be the first one-term president” in post-revolution Iran (not counting Abolhassan Bani-Sadr, who was impeached in 1980 after only one year in office). Mehdi Asgari, another hardliner MP, has gone even further, telling his constituency that Raisi is “committing economic genocide of the Iranian people” and is responsible for the worst inflation in Iran since World War II.
Some in the hardline camp, which supported Raisi’s bid two years ago, now refer to him as “the worst president ever, because mismanagement and inefficiency are running wild across the government.” Reformists have been even more direct, calling on the president to “stand down before it is too late and the country is destroyed” and urging a new and fairer election to replace him.
Raisi has responded, labeling the criticisms “the products of false claims and wrong writings.” This has only backfired and led to jokes about his incompetence by many, including the prominent social activist and whistleblower Saba Azarpeik, who directly addressed Raisi on her Instagram page. “You are mistaken,” she wrote. “Who tricked you with this banana peel under your feet to believe that you are immune from criticisms?”
Some hard-line journalists are already calling Raisi a lame duck, noting that the secretary of the Supreme Council of National Security, Ali Shamkhani, has marginalized Raisi’s foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, and taken the lead in achieving diplomatic breakthroughs like the normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia. A recent editorial in the conservative Jomhouri Eslami newspaper addressed Raisi by name and admonished him to revise his policy on the Iran nuclear deal and financial reforms demanded by the Financial Action Task Force, an international body that polices money laundering and terrorism finance. “Look at the shocking situation to realize that the country is not in a good situation,” the editorial said. “You should not insist on your failed policies.”
The main beneficiary of Raisi’s mistakes is Mojtaba Khamenei. Despite the awkward optics of succeeding his father in a system that replaced a hereditary monarchy, Mojtaba has built strong links with the most powerful institution in Iran, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), and recently obtained the necessary clerical credential required for the job: the status of Ayatollah.
His father was elevated to that status only after he became Supreme Leader in 1989 in a series of maneuvers orchestrated by Rafsanjani, who then was elected as Iran’s president. According to Iran’s constitution, an elected clerical body, the Assembly of Experts, is supposed to choose the Supreme Leader. At present, however, that assembly is not decisive, and the IRGC and other security services will want to insure that a regime insider takes the job. Moreover, at age 54, Mojtaba is young enough to rule for decades, making him an ideal candidate to prolong the military and security services’ privileged status with regard to both economic and political benefits.
It seems that less than two years into his presidency, Raisi has made more enemies than friends, even among his own base of supporters. He is being made the fall guy for unpopular and unsuccessful decisions that are hardly his sole responsibility. As Iran approaches parliamentary elections in February 2024, attacks on Raisi are likely to continue to the benefit of Mojtaba Khamenei.
Photo: Mostafa Meraji.
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