Iran recently announced that it had developed its first indigenous hypersonic missile, the Fattah. According to a press release, the missile has a declared range of 1,400 kilometers with a maximum speed of Mach 15, about 18,000 km per hour or fifteen times the speed of sound. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called the development a great victory of the Islamic revolution.
Despite the announcement, doubts remain about whether Iran has actually achieved a feat so far only accomplished by a few more advanced military powers.
Hypersonics are a variant of other current generations of missiles, including cruise missiles, which are deployed by a number of armed forces around the world and are known as Hypersonic Cruise Missiles (HCMs). By comparison, the U.S. Tomahawk cruise missile flies at a speed of approximately 920 km per hour, while the Russian 3M54K Kalibr reaches speeds of up to 3,550 km per hour.
Another sub-category includes Hypersonic Glide Vehicles (HGVs), which are hypersonic warheads carried by ballistic missiles. They are usually ground-to-ground systems. During the final phase of the flight, the warhead is released from the rocket booster and glides toward its target at hypersonic speed. While a ballistic missile uses projectile motion to deliver a warhead, a cruise missile is powered throughout the entire duration of its flight. HGVs, such as the Russian Avangard, reportedly can reach speeds of up to Mach 27. According to Iran, the Fattah is a ballistic hypersonic missile.
Besides high speed, hypersonic weaponry is distinguished by its ability to maneuver during flight. Both these characteristics make it much more difficult for anti-missile systems to detect, tract and engage.
Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force, boasted that the Fattah missile “cannot be destroyed by any missile” and that it can “breach all anti-missile shields.”However, this statement is simply not true. Even hypersonic missiles can be intercepted, although it is more challenging compared to engaging a standard aerial threat. Iran has not had the opportunity to test its new missile against foreign systems, such as THAAD, SAMP/T or the widely used U.S.-made Patriot surface-to-air missile system. It is worth noting that the Patriot system reportedly intercepted a Russian Kinzhal hypersonic missile over Kyiv in May 2023.
If Iran actually possesses hypersonic technology, it would be a member of a truly elite and still very exclusive group.
Currently, only China and Russia have deployed hypersonic missiles — at least according to their declarations. The latter has the Ch-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic air-launched ballistic missile with a declared range of around 2,000 km and speeds reaching Mach 7-10, as seen in Ukraine. It is a modification of the 9M723 Iskander ground-to-ground missile.
The Americans are developing hypersonic technologies, too. There is the HTV-2 Falcon hypersonic glide vehicle with a declared maximum speed of Mach 20 during a glide phase, as well as air-to-air missiles, such as the HAWC (Hypersonic Air-breathing Weapon Concept) and the AGM-183A AARW (Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon). The latter project, despite several successful tests, was terminated this year.
Virtually all contemporary leading powers recognize the significance of hypersonic technologies. Projects of this kind are being pursued in several countries, but so far, few have obtained operationally ready weapon systems, although the theoretical concept dates back to the 1930s in Nazi Germany.
Speeds achieved by hypersonic projectiles are impressive, but it should also be underlined that conventional ballistic missiles can fly at high speeds, too. They also reach supersonic velocities, especially during their terminal (glide) phase. For example, Iran possesses the Shahab-3 liquid-propelled medium-range ballistic missile, which reportedly reaches a speed of Mach 7 in its final stage. Iran has not clarified whether the Fattah missile could attain hypersonic speeds during the initial phase, which is highly unlikely, or during its terminal phase, which is not an exceptional feature. A game-changing capability of the Fattah missile would be its ability to maneuver during flight, but Iran has not provided any details in this regard. There is no evidence to suggest that the Fattah possesses this capability.
So does Iran actually have such technologies? Only Iranian decision-makers can truly answer that question. However, there are reasonable doubts about Iran’s ability to achieve such a significant breakthrough. After all, Iran is known for its extensive propaganda and announcing non-existent successes. One example is the infamous story about the Qaher-313, which was presented by Iranian media as a stealth fighter aircraft but was, in reality, just a mock-up for propaganda purposes. Recently, Iran unveiled what it called “the first product of the quantum processing algorithm,” which turned out to be “a low-cost development board manufactured by the U.S.-based hardware and software company Digilent, available in the market for about $600.” In other words, Iranian claims should not be completely dismissed, but they should be approached with great caution.
Hypersonic technologies are highly advanced and more demanding than ballistic and cruise missiles currently deployed. Hypersonic projectiles require extremely efficient and stable components, including high-powered engines. Many tests have ended in failure, and scientists and engineers are still grappling with numerous challenges, including how to design a maneuverable yet durable structure. With such high speeds, even a slight deviation from an intended trajectory could lead to a disaster. Moreover, such a projectile must maintain high velocity (and this requires an efficient and reliable engine) and be resistant to extremely high temperatures, friction, and deformation.
Secondly, even achieving a scientific breakthrough in a specific technology does not automatically mean that a particular country has the industrial capacity to transform a prototype into a mass-produced and operationally fielded weapon. To launch a manufacturing process, one would need advanced production lines and very strict technological regulations. A financial aspect is also significant. Due to the high costs of development and subsequent production, it is widely believed that hypersonic weapons are unlikely to become widespread.
Does Iran have not only the scientific, but also the industrial and financial potential to become a hypersonic power? While it cannot be completely ruled out, a vision of Iran armed with hundreds or even dozens of modern and unstoppable hypersonic missiles is highly unlikely. After all, the Iranian arms industry is best known these days for production of cheap and highly vulnerable drones.
Robert Czulda is an assistant professor at the University of Lodz, Poland and a former visiting professor at Islamic Azad University in Iran, the University of Maryland, and National Cheng-chi University in Taiwan. He is the author of Iran 1925 – 2014: From Reza Shah to Rouhani (2014) and Iran’s Security Policy: Internal and International Dimensions (2022). Follow him on Twitter: @RobertCzulda.
Iran’s Claims of Developing a Hypersonic Missile Raise Doubts
By Robert Czulda
Middle East & North Africa
Only Russia and China have so far produced hypersonic missiles. They are technologically very difficult to manufacture and even a slight defect can lead to failure in flight. That is why there is skepticism about whether Iran has truly mastered this technology.
Iran recently announced that it had developed its first indigenous hypersonic missile, the Fattah. According to a press release, the missile has a declared range of 1,400 kilometers with a maximum speed of Mach 15, about 18,000 km per hour or fifteen times the speed of sound. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called the development a great victory of the Islamic revolution.
Despite the announcement, doubts remain about whether Iran has actually achieved a feat so far only accomplished by a few more advanced military powers.
Hypersonics are a variant of other current generations of missiles, including cruise missiles, which are deployed by a number of armed forces around the world and are known as Hypersonic Cruise Missiles (HCMs). By comparison, the U.S. Tomahawk cruise missile flies at a speed of approximately 920 km per hour, while the Russian 3M54K Kalibr reaches speeds of up to 3,550 km per hour.
Another sub-category includes Hypersonic Glide Vehicles (HGVs), which are hypersonic warheads carried by ballistic missiles. They are usually ground-to-ground systems. During the final phase of the flight, the warhead is released from the rocket booster and glides toward its target at hypersonic speed. While a ballistic missile uses projectile motion to deliver a warhead, a cruise missile is powered throughout the entire duration of its flight. HGVs, such as the Russian Avangard, reportedly can reach speeds of up to Mach 27. According to Iran, the Fattah is a ballistic hypersonic missile.
Besides high speed, hypersonic weaponry is distinguished by its ability to maneuver during flight. Both these characteristics make it much more difficult for anti-missile systems to detect, tract and engage.
Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force, boasted that the Fattah missile “cannot be destroyed by any missile” and that it can “breach all anti-missile shields.”However, this statement is simply not true. Even hypersonic missiles can be intercepted, although it is more challenging compared to engaging a standard aerial threat. Iran has not had the opportunity to test its new missile against foreign systems, such as THAAD, SAMP/T or the widely used U.S.-made Patriot surface-to-air missile system. It is worth noting that the Patriot system reportedly intercepted a Russian Kinzhal hypersonic missile over Kyiv in May 2023.
If Iran actually possesses hypersonic technology, it would be a member of a truly elite and still very exclusive group.
Currently, only China and Russia have deployed hypersonic missiles — at least according to their declarations. The latter has the Ch-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic air-launched ballistic missile with a declared range of around 2,000 km and speeds reaching Mach 7-10, as seen in Ukraine. It is a modification of the 9M723 Iskander ground-to-ground missile.
The Americans are developing hypersonic technologies, too. There is the HTV-2 Falcon hypersonic glide vehicle with a declared maximum speed of Mach 20 during a glide phase, as well as air-to-air missiles, such as the HAWC (Hypersonic Air-breathing Weapon Concept) and the AGM-183A AARW (Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon). The latter project, despite several successful tests, was terminated this year.
Virtually all contemporary leading powers recognize the significance of hypersonic technologies. Projects of this kind are being pursued in several countries, but so far, few have obtained operationally ready weapon systems, although the theoretical concept dates back to the 1930s in Nazi Germany.
Speeds achieved by hypersonic projectiles are impressive, but it should also be underlined that conventional ballistic missiles can fly at high speeds, too. They also reach supersonic velocities, especially during their terminal (glide) phase. For example, Iran possesses the Shahab-3 liquid-propelled medium-range ballistic missile, which reportedly reaches a speed of Mach 7 in its final stage. Iran has not clarified whether the Fattah missile could attain hypersonic speeds during the initial phase, which is highly unlikely, or during its terminal phase, which is not an exceptional feature. A game-changing capability of the Fattah missile would be its ability to maneuver during flight, but Iran has not provided any details in this regard. There is no evidence to suggest that the Fattah possesses this capability.
So does Iran actually have such technologies? Only Iranian decision-makers can truly answer that question. However, there are reasonable doubts about Iran’s ability to achieve such a significant breakthrough. After all, Iran is known for its extensive propaganda and announcing non-existent successes. One example is the infamous story about the Qaher-313, which was presented by Iranian media as a stealth fighter aircraft but was, in reality, just a mock-up for propaganda purposes. Recently, Iran unveiled what it called “the first product of the quantum processing algorithm,” which turned out to be “a low-cost development board manufactured by the U.S.-based hardware and software company Digilent, available in the market for about $600.” In other words, Iranian claims should not be completely dismissed, but they should be approached with great caution.
Hypersonic technologies are highly advanced and more demanding than ballistic and cruise missiles currently deployed. Hypersonic projectiles require extremely efficient and stable components, including high-powered engines. Many tests have ended in failure, and scientists and engineers are still grappling with numerous challenges, including how to design a maneuverable yet durable structure. With such high speeds, even a slight deviation from an intended trajectory could lead to a disaster. Moreover, such a projectile must maintain high velocity (and this requires an efficient and reliable engine) and be resistant to extremely high temperatures, friction, and deformation.
Secondly, even achieving a scientific breakthrough in a specific technology does not automatically mean that a particular country has the industrial capacity to transform a prototype into a mass-produced and operationally fielded weapon. To launch a manufacturing process, one would need advanced production lines and very strict technological regulations. A financial aspect is also significant. Due to the high costs of development and subsequent production, it is widely believed that hypersonic weapons are unlikely to become widespread.
Does Iran have not only the scientific, but also the industrial and financial potential to become a hypersonic power? While it cannot be completely ruled out, a vision of Iran armed with hundreds or even dozens of modern and unstoppable hypersonic missiles is highly unlikely. After all, the Iranian arms industry is best known these days for production of cheap and highly vulnerable drones.
Robert Czulda is an assistant professor at the University of Lodz, Poland and a former visiting professor at Islamic Azad University in Iran, the University of Maryland, and National Cheng-chi University in Taiwan. He is the author of Iran 1925 – 2014: From Reza Shah to Rouhani (2014) and Iran’s Security Policy: Internal and International Dimensions (2022). Follow him on Twitter: @RobertCzulda.
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