Russia has declared war on Ukrainian grain. On July 17, 2023, Russia withdrew from the United Nations (“UN”) “Black Sea Grain Initiative,” which had permitted ships carrying grain from Ukraine to pass through Russia’s blockade and reach world markets. Putin has threatened to attack any ships sailing from or to Ukraine. Since then, events have moved in surprising directions and with remarkable speed:

1. Ships serving Ukrainian Danube River ports are using an informalnear-shore corridor in the territorial waters of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (“NATO”) Balkan members to skirt Russian interference. Ukraine has sent a Hong Kong-flagged ship from Odesa through an adjoining corridor within its own territorial waters to reach Romania and continue south to the Straits. Turkey let it pass without complaint, signaling Turkey’s acceptance of an alternative system for Ukrainian grain to safely pass.
2. Ukraine has imposed acounter-blockade of Russian ships in the eastern Black Sea, where it has demonstrated it can see and successfully attack both a Russian warship and tanker.
3. Ukraine’s reinvigorated diplomacy is calling for restoration of the UN initiative and has emphasized the “humanitarian” purpose of its near-shore corridor. This has resulted in strong international endorsement, as world grain prices rise and push out of reach a commodity fundamental to the well-being of millions in the global south. Ukraine has also sought international insurance on the London market, guaranteed by its own treasury, for ships using the near-shore corridor.

These three moves are Ukraine’s unilateral initiatives. The nation has shown the same remarkable creativity in defending against a stronger invader at sea that it has earlier shown on land. And now, Ukraine has on its own produced a promising military/diplomatic response to defeat President Putin’s war on its grain. Ukraine’s accomplishments at sea have been applauded at the tactical level, for example, in the sinking of the cruiser Moskva, but not properly recognized as a strategic achievement. The United States and NATO must act immediately to build on Ukraine’s strategic success with three measures that deal with the current situation. They are durable and should shape Ukraine’s and the West’s response to future changes including further Russian escalation.

Read the full article on the Center for Maritime Strategy website.