Research

A Grim Anniversary: Marking Two Years of the Russo-Ukraine War

Stimson Center experts break down the implications of the conflict two years on

Defense Policy & Posture

February 23, 2024

This week marks a grim anniversary: Two years ago, Russia launched its unlawful invasion of Ukraine, which not only led to a humanitarian crisis on the ground, but also had significant implications for European security architecture, NATO enlargement, and the international order, writ large.

Today, the future of the conflict remains uncertain, with possibilities ranging from continued low-level skirmishes to a more significant escalation of hostilities that threaten wider conflict, making Ukraine a focal point of geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West.

For the past two years, the Stimson Center has offered unique analysis of the war, encompassing the geopolitical implications, humanitarian concerns, diplomatic efforts, and alternative futures of how the conflict might end – all designed to guide policymakers and promote practical solutions in the face of uncertainty. Such analysis by Stimson experts underscores the critical importance of our mission, as we strive to promote dialogue, deepen understanding, and build innovative solutions to complex global challenges.

Below we offer a series of reflections on the past, present, and future implications of the war in Ukraine. I encourage you to look for more detailed on the homepage.

– Brian Finlay, President & CEO

POLICY MEMO

Ending the War in Ukraine: Harder Than It Seems

As analysts opine that the war in Ukraine is turning into an unwinnable one with no easy exit, Mat Burrows examines the possible outcomes of a war entering its third year.

COMMENTARY

Ukraine Risks Revisited

Stimson Conventional Defense program experts reflect on U.S. military assistance to Ukraine to explore how the risks may evolve going forward.

event Recording

Outlining Risks and Opportunities in 2024: Quickfire on Russia

Steve Levine and Stimson Center Fellow James Siebens break down growing U.S. perceptions that support for Ukraine is yet another instance of nation building rather than the defense of the basic tenets of international law.

commentary

The Enduring Risk of Human Error at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant

With a drastic reduction in experienced operators and a hostile environment hindering normal operations, the risk of human error looms large over daily operations at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.

commentary

False Alarms: Reflecting on the Role of Cyber Operations in the Russia-Ukraine War

Although the cyber doomsday scenarios feared in 2022 have largely not played out, the Russia-Ukraine war has demonstrated a need for a broader approach to measuring cyber harm and violence while also testing the effectiveness of cyber as a tool of war, says Stimson Cyber Director Allison Pytlak.

commentary

War in Ukraine: Implications for North Korea

Amid deepening ties between Russia and North Korea, Senior Fellow Rachel Minyoung Lee examines the implications of the Russia-Ukraine war on North Korea's foreign policy.

commentary

Should South Korea Enhance Its Role in the Eurasian Battlefield?

38 North contributor Kil Joo Ban makes the case for the Republic of Korea to consider evolving its support scheme for Ukraine to help preserve a liberal international order, and, in the process, increase South Korea’s hard and soft power.

commentary

Pragmatism Prevails in US-India Ties Despite Differences on Ukraine

Despite early friction, Washington and New Delhi have taken a pragmatic approach in navigating their differences, says South Asia program director Elizabeth Threlkeld.

commentary

Is the US Ban on Russian Seafood Working?

As more countries around the globe move to ban Russian seafood and implement seafood traceability systems, they are looking to the US as a global leader, says Stimson Senior Fellow Sally Yozell.

commentary

Does the United States Need a New Ukraine Strategy?

Amid chaos in Congress and an election campaign, the Biden administration may be forced to reconsider the viability of its approach toward Kyiv. Emma Ashford and Matthew Kroenig grapple with the issues in Foreign Policy.

commentary

How Ukraine Can Win Through Defense

"If Ukraine can defend the territory it controls in the coming months by using capabilities such as antitank mines and concrete fortifications, it can deny Russia a path to complete victory and perhaps even open the door for negotiations." Emma Ashford and Kelly Grieco outline a remaining path to Ukrainian victory in a new piece for Foreign Affairs.