Arab mistrust of U.S. policies has a long history, rising in the last decade in the wake of President Barack Obama’s perceived “leadership from behind” and negotiation of a nuclear agreement with Iran that neglected that country’s deep interference in its Arab neighbors.
The Donald Trump administration did not substantially change the state of distrust or perception of U.S. disregard of Persian Gulf countries. His policies, including withdrawing from the nuclear deal in 2018 with no replacement, increased Iranian threats to Arab countries.
The confidence deficit has not eased under the Joe Biden administration, which lacks initiative and understanding of the transformations that have taken place in most of the Persian Gulf countries and in the Arab world in general.
Persian Gulf Arabs have seen their resources and stability increase during the past ten years, which has prompted them to slowly distance themselves from the United States and at the same time, improve their relationships with Iran and forge closer ties to China. They have refused U.S. admonishment to side with Ukraine since the Russian invasion and continue to hedge among the big outside powers.
The main manifestation of the weakness of the Biden administration in the Middle East is the rapid Arab normalization of the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. This is despite the horrible crimes committed by the regime, which are documented by human rights organizations, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, and a variety of committees emanating from the United Nations.
This shift — for which the Syrian people are paying the biggest price — will be capped on Friday, May 19 with Assad’s invitation to an Arab League summit in Saudi Arabia, which recently restored diplomatic relations with Syria. The invitation, ending a decade of estrangement, comes with no announced preconditions or an agreed Arab roadmap. It can only be explained by the region’s desire to produce a positive atmosphere in relations with Iran, Russia, and China to protect stability in the long term and avoid becoming embroiled in any confrontation between the United States and/or Israel with Iran.
The Biden administration has criticized the decision and said it is not going to follow the Arabs in reconciling with Assad. On May 5, a State Department spokesman told reporters that Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in a meeting with Arab foreign ministers, “made clear that the United States will not normalize relations with the Assad regime and does not support others normalizing until there is authentic, UN-facilitated political progress in line with UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 2254,” which calls for Assad to reach a political settlement with the Syrian opposition.
Apart from this mild criticism, the U.S. left the matter to its traditional Arab partners to do what they determined served their interests. This was despite U.S. policies that purport to defend human rights and the right of people to self-determination, to combat financial corruption, terrorism, and drug trafficking, and to return the millions displaced by conflict to their home countries. All these issues have featured prominently in Syria since the Assad regime cracked down violently on what began as peaceful protests in 2011.
At the same time, over the past decade, Iran has significantly tightened its military, political and economic control over Syria, going beyond its influence even in other countries heavily penetrated by Iran such as Iraq and Lebanon. Thus, Syria’s seat in the Arab League is to a great extent, Iran’s seat.
Syria’s readmission to the Arab League is also a success for Russia and even a model for a potential solution in Ukraine, with the aim of showing the United States to be geopolitically weak.
Beyond restoring diplomatic relations with Syria, Saudi Arabia has reached out to China to normalize ties with Iran and seems interested in broader cooperation that will help China strengthen its presence in the Middle East region in a way that quietly competes with the United States.
Washington’s acquiescence to these trends and neglect of the Syrian issue will not serve its strategic interests, neither in the Middle East nor beyond.
The U.S. government and research organizations have had difficulty devising strategies that would effectively balance American values and interests in the Middle East. Consequently, members of Congress from both the Democratic and Republican parties have proposed legislation that seeks to prohibit U.S. endorsement of any Syrian regime under the leadership of Assad, and to impose unspecified penalties on other nations that recognize his leadership. The U.S. administration should promptly capitalize on this proposed legislation to establish a comprehensive approach to address all aspects of the Syrian crisis, including a concerted effort to engage with Arab allies. Failure to do so may result in the endgame favoring Russia, Iran, and China.
To pave the way for a sustainable solution to the Syrian crisis, it is crucial for U.S. research institutions, such as the Stimson Center, to collaborate with universities in Arab countries with significant numbers of Syrian refugees. The purpose of this collaboration would be to identify the priorities and requirements of the refugees, including the necessary conditions for their safe return to their homes, and for establishing a political transition in the country. The results of this study could then be used by global decision-makers to develop a realistic road map that ensures the safe return of displaced individuals, political stability, and the departure of foreign forces from Syria. These issues must be addressed comprehensively and before any consideration of waiving sanctions, and before committing any foreign funds towards reconstruction efforts in Syria.
Bassam Barabandi is a former Syrian diplomat. He has written extensively on the Syrian conflict, has been published in Foreign Affairs and Foreign Policy and has provided analysis for the BBC, Al-Jazeera, Al-Arabiya, Sky News, France24 and other media outlets.
Arabs Normalize with Syria Out of Fear of Iran and Uncertainty About US Policy
By Bassam Barabandi
Middle East & North Africa
Arab mistrust of U.S. policies has a long history, rising in the last decade in the wake of President Barack Obama’s perceived “leadership from behind” and negotiation of a nuclear agreement with Iran that neglected that country’s deep interference in its Arab neighbors.
The Donald Trump administration did not substantially change the state of distrust or perception of U.S. disregard of Persian Gulf countries. His policies, including withdrawing from the nuclear deal in 2018 with no replacement, increased Iranian threats to Arab countries.
The confidence deficit has not eased under the Joe Biden administration, which lacks initiative and understanding of the transformations that have taken place in most of the Persian Gulf countries and in the Arab world in general.
Persian Gulf Arabs have seen their resources and stability increase during the past ten years, which has prompted them to slowly distance themselves from the United States and at the same time, improve their relationships with Iran and forge closer ties to China. They have refused U.S. admonishment to side with Ukraine since the Russian invasion and continue to hedge among the big outside powers.
The main manifestation of the weakness of the Biden administration in the Middle East is the rapid Arab normalization of the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. This is despite the horrible crimes committed by the regime, which are documented by human rights organizations, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, and a variety of committees emanating from the United Nations.
This shift — for which the Syrian people are paying the biggest price — will be capped on Friday, May 19 with Assad’s invitation to an Arab League summit in Saudi Arabia, which recently restored diplomatic relations with Syria. The invitation, ending a decade of estrangement, comes with no announced preconditions or an agreed Arab roadmap. It can only be explained by the region’s desire to produce a positive atmosphere in relations with Iran, Russia, and China to protect stability in the long term and avoid becoming embroiled in any confrontation between the United States and/or Israel with Iran.
The Biden administration has criticized the decision and said it is not going to follow the Arabs in reconciling with Assad. On May 5, a State Department spokesman told reporters that Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in a meeting with Arab foreign ministers, “made clear that the United States will not normalize relations with the Assad regime and does not support others normalizing until there is authentic, UN-facilitated political progress in line with UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 2254,” which calls for Assad to reach a political settlement with the Syrian opposition.
Apart from this mild criticism, the U.S. left the matter to its traditional Arab partners to do what they determined served their interests. This was despite U.S. policies that purport to defend human rights and the right of people to self-determination, to combat financial corruption, terrorism, and drug trafficking, and to return the millions displaced by conflict to their home countries. All these issues have featured prominently in Syria since the Assad regime cracked down violently on what began as peaceful protests in 2011.
At the same time, over the past decade, Iran has significantly tightened its military, political and economic control over Syria, going beyond its influence even in other countries heavily penetrated by Iran such as Iraq and Lebanon. Thus, Syria’s seat in the Arab League is to a great extent, Iran’s seat.
Syria’s readmission to the Arab League is also a success for Russia and even a model for a potential solution in Ukraine, with the aim of showing the United States to be geopolitically weak.
Beyond restoring diplomatic relations with Syria, Saudi Arabia has reached out to China to normalize ties with Iran and seems interested in broader cooperation that will help China strengthen its presence in the Middle East region in a way that quietly competes with the United States.
Washington’s acquiescence to these trends and neglect of the Syrian issue will not serve its strategic interests, neither in the Middle East nor beyond.
The U.S. government and research organizations have had difficulty devising strategies that would effectively balance American values and interests in the Middle East. Consequently, members of Congress from both the Democratic and Republican parties have proposed legislation that seeks to prohibit U.S. endorsement of any Syrian regime under the leadership of Assad, and to impose unspecified penalties on other nations that recognize his leadership. The U.S. administration should promptly capitalize on this proposed legislation to establish a comprehensive approach to address all aspects of the Syrian crisis, including a concerted effort to engage with Arab allies. Failure to do so may result in the endgame favoring Russia, Iran, and China.
To pave the way for a sustainable solution to the Syrian crisis, it is crucial for U.S. research institutions, such as the Stimson Center, to collaborate with universities in Arab countries with significant numbers of Syrian refugees. The purpose of this collaboration would be to identify the priorities and requirements of the refugees, including the necessary conditions for their safe return to their homes, and for establishing a political transition in the country. The results of this study could then be used by global decision-makers to develop a realistic road map that ensures the safe return of displaced individuals, political stability, and the departure of foreign forces from Syria. These issues must be addressed comprehensively and before any consideration of waiving sanctions, and before committing any foreign funds towards reconstruction efforts in Syria.
Bassam Barabandi is a former Syrian diplomat. He has written extensively on the Syrian conflict, has been published in Foreign Affairs and Foreign Policy and has provided analysis for the BBC, Al-Jazeera, Al-Arabiya, Sky News, France24 and other media outlets.
Recent & Related