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
Executive Summary
This report summarizes the findings of four online Track-2 discussions (2020-2021) between American and Russian retired senior military officers in the framework of the U.S.-Russia Military-to-Military Dialogue, initiated by the EastWest Institute in 2020 and later relaunched at the Stimson Center.
The report presents an overview (authored by Nataliya V. Stepanova) of opinions and ideas voiced by the participants and invited experts on topics discussed at the Dialogue sessions, including strategic stability, arms control, China, emerging technologies, cybersecurity, and military incidents.
In the annexes of the report, principal contributors and experts affiliated with the project provide more detailed analyses of select key topics.
In “Nuclear Deterrence: Cruise Missiles and Autonomous Nuclear Weapon Systems,” Vladimir Z. Dvorkin outlines the role of nuclear weapons as a means to deter a large-scale war, and states that nuclear deterrence capabilities will be maintained at the necessary level in the foreseeable future, despite the impact of new technologies. He concludes that weaponry systems such as cruise missiles (CM) with nuclear payloads, drones with nuclear propulsion units, and nuclear warheads not only stand in the way of negotiation processes, but also increase the likelihood of nuclear conflicts. Dvorkin recommends concluding a multilateral agreement to renounce nuclear CMs.
In “Are Current Cyber Defense Practices Enhancing Cyberspace Security and Stability?” Bruce W. McConnell outlines the dangers of the conflict in cyberspace that continue to intensify. He discusses the increasing securitization of cyberspace, the escalation of the cyber arms race, and other outstanding concerns in this domain. McConnell concludes by noting that the international consensus is currently limited to non-binding norms that do not reflect the current dynamic of state-on-state cyber conflict. He suggests that governments work toward an international agreement on binding rules for conflict in cyberspace, to which Track-2 diplomacy and other communication channels can contribute.
In “Impact of ICT on the Level of Strategic Stability: A New Format,” Natalia P. Romashkina discusses the latest developments in information and communications technologies (ICT), the influence of ICT on strategic stability and international security, and the ongoing interstate dialogue on these issues. She argues that the dialogue between the U.S. and Russia should ultimately aim at signing a document obliging states to abandon cyberattacks on each other’s strategic command and control systems to prevent an unintended exchange of nuclear strikes. Romashkina regards the U.S.-Russia negotiation process as essential for strategic stability and for restructuring the arms control system from bilateral to multilateral formats.
In “Nuclear Deterrence and Escalation Management in Near-Peer Competition,” James A. Siebens outlines the risks and costs of unintended escalation between the U.S. and Russia, and argues that strategic stability based on the principle of “mutually assured destruction” will remain unaltered under the developing great power rivalry between the U.S., Russia, and China. Siebens also notes that efforts to revise the status quo via political warfare or conventional military means may have destabilizing consequences. He concludes that it is critical to pursue measures for reassurance, transparency, and clearer communication of national strategic means in anticipation of future crises. In “Possible Approaches to Reducing the Risks of Nuclear Escalation at the Regional Level,” Pavel S. Zolotarev argues that a full-scale nuclear war between Russia and the United States could result from the escalation of a local military conflict, and that preventing this is a common interest. He then discusses practical steps to avoid such a scenario. Zolotarev believes that NATO’s intention to acquire the ability to deliver high-precision strikes against Russia’s important infrastructure assets, and to use the European missile defense system to counter similar strikes, will increase the risk of a nuclear conflict. He concludes that the deployment of medium-and shorter-range missiles in Europe is unacceptable and extremely dangerous from the standpoint of nuclear conflict escalation.
