Donald Trump keeps topping himself: His latest threat – to “totally destroy” a country of 25 million people – marks the first time (at least in my memory) that a genocidal threat was vocalized from the rostrum of the United Nations. Perhaps this was a deterrent threat, but deterrence doesn’t apply to those who are “suicidal” – Trump’s depiction of Kim Jong Un. Perhaps this was a prelude to negotiations, but the author of The Art of the Deal has yet to offer one to the “rocket man.” Instead, he has relied on threats to prompt somebody else to solve the North Korean problem.
Political scientists have offered us the “madman theory” to explain bellicosity in pursuit of favorable outcomes in a crisis, but its foremost practitioner, Richard Nixon, failed utterly at signaling craziness during crises on his watch. Nixon was paranoid, to be sure, but he was just too calculating to be a madman. Now we have ourselves two madmen facing off – something political scientists, pundits and novelists never conceptualized. Or maybe neither Trump nor the young scion of the Kim dynasty is mad enough to start a war that results in nuclear exchanges. Maybe they are just wildly flamboyant character actors. We don’t know.
Read the full article in Spearhead Research.
South Asia
Donald Trump keeps topping himself: His latest threat – to “totally destroy” a country of 25 million people – marks the first time (at least in my memory) that a genocidal threat was vocalized from the rostrum of the United Nations. Perhaps this was a deterrent threat, but deterrence doesn’t apply to those who are “suicidal” – Trump’s depiction of Kim Jong Un. Perhaps this was a prelude to negotiations, but the author of The Art of the Deal has yet to offer one to the “rocket man.” Instead, he has relied on threats to prompt somebody else to solve the North Korean problem.
Political scientists have offered us the “madman theory” to explain bellicosity in pursuit of favorable outcomes in a crisis, but its foremost practitioner, Richard Nixon, failed utterly at signaling craziness during crises on his watch. Nixon was paranoid, to be sure, but he was just too calculating to be a madman. Now we have ourselves two madmen facing off – something political scientists, pundits and novelists never conceptualized. Or maybe neither Trump nor the young scion of the Kim dynasty is mad enough to start a war that results in nuclear exchanges. Maybe they are just wildly flamboyant character actors. We don’t know.
Read the full article in Spearhead Research.
Recent & Related
Kabuki Diplomacy Between US and Iran at UNGA
Is the Iran War Worth It? Six Months Later, Still No
Why Iran-Backed Iraqi Armed Groups Are Hedging on Disarmament
9 Issues to Watch at UNGA 81
Why the Houthi Capture of Mocha Matters Far Beyond Yemen
Nuclear Disruption: The US-Saudi 123 Agreement and the Future of Nuclear Cooperation in the Middle East
The Nation Is Not Alone. We Need Reflexive Multilateralism
“No, History Begins Today”: Why Washington Could Not Reshape Pakistan’s Interests After 9/11
What if the US Had Made Peace With Iran After 9/11?
Bombs, Bugs, and Bots: Preventing the Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction 25 Years After 9/11
The Shadow of 9/11 on Future US Foreign Policy
Can the Powers of the Post-9/11 Presidency Be Checked?
Find an Expert
Home to more than 100 scholars and global affiliates, the Stimson Center is proud to be a magnet for the world’s leading experts on the most pressing foreign policy and national security issues of our time. Explore our experts and their work.