BEIJING — China isn’t going to be happy with the likely victory for Taiwan’s pro-independence opposition in this weekend’s presidential election, but it has limited options to respond: Any angry reaction could further alienate the island’s public, while a passive response could weaken Beijing’s influence there.
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“I do not expect any sort of security crisis,” said Alan Romberg, East Asia Program direct at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington D.C. “I suppose both sides could mismanage things too badly that there could be a vicious downward cycle of action and reaction, but I frankly don’t foresee that.”
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