Article by Alan Romberg in China Leadership Monitor 34

in Program
Cross-Strait Relations: Setting the Stage for 2012

Various developments throughout the latter half of 2010 and the early
weeks of 2011 began to set the stage for changes in both Taiwan and the
Mainland leading up to the Taiwan presidential elections and the PRC
leadership change in 2012. Even at this early date, and despite the
remarkable improvement in cross-Strait relations over the past 33 months,
we can see potentially clashing policy trends that will test the durability of
what has been achieved. This essay focuses mainly on what has happened
in recent months in terms of the political situation in Taiwan, including
jockeying for position in terms of Mainland policy, as well as the PRC’s
continuing campaign to win hearts and minds on the island. But it also
touches on emerging issues that will likely grow in importance for cross-
Strait relations over the next year, including Beijing’s efforts to nudge
Taipei toward more explicit acceptance of “one China.”


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