Beyond the Horizon: Outlining Risks and Opportunities in 2024

This event will serve as your authoritative guide to the risks and opportunities of the year to come. More than 50 countries are heading to the polls in 2024, including India, the United States, Russia, the European Union, and Taiwan, all against the backdrop of ongoing and potential future conflict around the world. Join the Stimson Center on January 24 as we explore the likely implications of different election outcomes; evaluate power dynamics and ongoing trends in Russia, China, and the Middle East; and examine the future of AI and technology in an ever-changing world. We will be opening the event with keynote remarks from Ravi Agrawal, Editor-in-Chief of Foreign Policy.

For more on these issues, read our latest piece, Top Ten Global Risks for 2024, by Mathew Burrows and Robert Manning, now in its seventh annual edition.

Full Agenda

9:30 to 9:35 am: Opening Remarks

Rachel Stohl, Senior Vice President of Research Programs and Director of the Conventional Defense Program, Stimson Center

9:35 to 9:55 am: Keynote Speaker

Ravi Agrawal, Editor-in-Chief, Foreign Policy

10:00 to 10:45 am: 2024’s Major Trends, Risks, and Opportunities

Mat Burrows, Program Lead, Strategic Foresight Hub and a Distinguished Fellow, Reimagining US Grand Strategy Program, Stimson Center
Emma Ashford, Senior Fellow, Reimagining US Grand Strategy Program, Stimson Center
Elizabeth Threlkeld, Senior Fellow and Director, South Asia Program, Stimson Center
Ed Luce, U.S National Editor, Financial Times (Moderator)

The post-World War II global system that the United States engineered is unraveling, and amid such disorder and strife, even more signs of distress are likely to surface in 2024. From the proliferation of conflict, food insecurity, developing-country debt, and growing climate change impacts to further deteriorating US-China relations, a looming Eurasian entente, wars in Europe and the Middle East, and Trump’s potential return to office – an ongoing polycrisis is emblematic of our times.

In this increasingly post-Western world, developing countries started questioning Western policies and norms that they view as threats to their national sovereignty, and the route for solving global problems like poverty, conflict, diseases, or climate change lie more and more in public-private partnerships or multilateral diplomatic arrangements rather than in military action.

In this opening panel, Stimson’s foresight experts and geopolitical risk analysts will provide an overview of 2024’s biggest risks, evaluate ongoing trends, and also identify opportunities for positive change in a world of disarray.

10:45 to 11:05 am – Quickfire: China

Yun Sun, Senior Fellow and Director, China Program, Stimson Center
Vincent Ni, Asia Editor, NPR

China’s role in global affairs is shaping economic, technological, and geopolitical dynamics everywhere around the globe. In an era defined by great-power competition and deglobalization trends, the country’s strategic ambitions – as well as the implications of these ambitions – are the subject of intense debate in Washington and other Western capitals, as decision-makers and diplomats alike reevaluate the interplay between economic policies, technological strides, and international relations. This quickfire will look at the potential regional and global implications of the January 13 Taiwan election outcomes, evaluate the consequences for cross strait relations, and project the future of the tenuous US-China relationship.

11:05 to 11:25 am – Quickfire: Middle East

Barbara Slavin, Distinguished Fellow, Stimson Center
Laura Rozen, Editor, Diplomatic

The violent surprise October 7 attacks by Hamas on Israel led to retaliation with an unprecedented bombardment and invasion of the Gaza Strip that has devastated the territory and killed nearly 25,000 people. The conflict has already caused ripple effects of unrest and violence which have spread to Lebanon, the West Bank, Syria, Iraq, and even Yemen, a thousand miles away. In this quickfire, we will delve into the question of how the war can be contained – if at all – and if there is any hope for a diplomatic and political process that can better protect Israelis, restore rights and dignity to Palestinians under occupation, and unify the region in the pursuit of peace, not more war.

11:25 to 11:45 am – Quickfire: Russia

James Siebens, Fellow, Defense Strategy & Planning Project, Reimagining US Grand Strategy Program, Stimson Center
Steve LeVine, Editor, The Electric

Russia’s war in Ukraine marks the final act of the post-Cold War period and the start of a new era, yet unwritten. As the Ukraine-Russia conflict enters its third year, the prospect of a long war looms large in the minds of policymakers in Moscow, Kyiv, and around the world. Russia, Ukraine, and NATO are all attempting to ramp up production of war materiel and continued Western support for Ukraine’s defense hangs in the balance of political posturing and global elections. This quickfire discusses the current state of the war, potential trajectories of the conflict in 2024 – including the prospects for a ceasefire or negotiations – and the options for managing the US-Russia relationship in the context of historic tensions.

11:45 am to 12:05 pm – Quickfire: Artificial Intelligence

Julian Mueller-Kaler, Director of the Strategic Foresight Hub, Stimson Center
Robert A. Manning, Distinguished Fellow, Reimagining US Grand Strategy Program and Strategic Foresight Hub, Stimson Center

The transformative yet challenging world of Artificial Intelligence (AI) continues to evolve at breathtaking speed, with regulators struggling to keep up. AI’s dual nature makes it both a revolutionary tool for productivity increase, information dissemination, and decision-making, but also a potentially insidious vehicle to foster mis- and disinformation in critical areas, including elections. Questions loom large on how to harness AI’s power responsibly, what the ongoing technology trends might mean for politics, and how societies can ensure the preservation and fortification of democratic integrity in an era increasingly influenced by digital information. This quickfire discusses AI’s increasing capabilities, attempts to regulate the technology responsibly, and the risks unregulated AI poses to the integrity of truth and democratic processes, while also presenting the opportunities that exist to counter such trends through emerging tech applications.