The Robb-Silberman Report, Intelligence, and Nonproliferation
This article originally appeared in the June 2005 issue of Arms Control Today On March 31, a bipartisan commission led by former Senator Charles Robb (D-Va.) and federal appellate court Judge Laurence Silberman, a Republican, reported to President George W. Bush on what went wrong in the intelligence community when it failed to accurately assess […]
The Role of US Intelligence in Israeli-Palestinian Relations
This piece appeared in the May 12, 2005 issue of Bitterlemons International. With all the laments about intelligence failures in Iraq and elsewhere, a belief persists that intelligence professionals from key outside countries can play an important, and positive, role in promoting the security environment that is so vital to the peace process. It is […]
Syria Loves Ankara but will the Relationship Last?
This commentary appeared in the Daily Star on April 19, 2005. How quickly things change in the Middle East. In 1998, Turkey massed troops on its border with Syria to coerce the regime of President Hafez Assad into relinquishing its support for the Syria-based Kurdish Workers Party (PKK). Within days, Abdullah Ocalan, the PKK leader, […]
Iraq’s Future: Making the Most of the Elections’ Success
The mood in Iraq has changed, and important parts of society appear to be energized and engaged in building a new political culture for the country. For the United States, there is much satisfaction, although Americans must be careful to not over-identify with the latest developments. Iraqis acted for their own interests, to regain their […]
What the Rise of Asia Means for the Persian Gulf
The geopolitical importance of oil cannot be understated: the price, availability and accessibility of oil do not conform to pure market forces, but rather they are dependent on political stability and economic needs and forecasts. Financial markets best reflect this complexity: on the futures market, the price of oil reflects the fears and expectations of […]
The Arab Gulf states and the Iranian nuclear challenge
This commentary appeared in the Daily Star on January 15, 2005. For those who worry about Iran’s nuclear aspirations, there is something deeply disconcerting about the absence of any Gulf Arab involvement in the negotiations aimed at stopping, or at least slowing, Iran’s nuclear progress. Many criticize the United States for staying on the sidelines […]
The Art Of Brinkmanship: Unraveling Iran’s Nuclear Policy
In July of 2003, traces of highly enriched uranium were found by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors at the Natanz nuclear facility in central Iran. The discovery exposed the Islamic Republic’s advanced program to enrich uranium but more importantly, it strongly suggested Iranian unwillingness to give up its nuclear ambitions. Since the summer of […]
Cutting through the Myriad Cons about the Neocons
This commentary appeared in the Daily Star on December 8, 2004. An Arabic version of this analysis is available here. As the U.S. presidential election approached, many in the Arab world impatiently awaited the demise of the neoconservative ideology that they closely identified with President George W. Bush’s Middle East policies. Now that Bush has […]