Dear Friends & Colleagues,
From Ethiopia’s mega-dam threatening upstream Nile water security to Morocco lobbying Washington to designate the Algeria-backed Polisario Front a terrorist organization and Türkiye exploring expanded ties with eastern Libya—explore the latest developments shaping North Africa’s political, economic, and security landscape.
Hafed Al Ghwell
Senior Fellow and Director
North Africa Program
Read the North Africa Weekly on LinkedIn or join the conversation on X: @StimsonNAfrica
On Our Radar
The headlines you need to follow across North Africa.
FROM THE DIRECTOR’S DESK
Türkiye’s New Gamble in Libya
Türkiye deepens its strategic military and economic influence in Libya, engaging both rival governments. The move challenges Egypt and Greece, escalates Mediterranean tensions, and risks further destabilizing Libya’s fractured political state.
ARAB NEWS
Algeria Has Become the Primary Enforcer of Europe’s Southern Frontier
Algeria has shifted from pan-African solidarity to Europe’s frontline enforcer, detaining and expelling tens of thousands while cooperating with Frontex and Italy on border control. Alongside Egypt, it is now central to Europe’s externalized migration regime, where deaths at sea and desert abandonments mount amid blocked legal pathways.
MIDDLE EAST EYE
Exclusive: Libya’s Khalifa Haftar Plans to Visit Turkey as Ties Thaw
Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar is set to visit Turkey this month after a year of warming ties, sources said. The move follows Ankara’s outreach to eastern Libya and could influence a contested 2019 maritime deal opposed by Greece and Egypt.
THE AFRICA REPORT
Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam to Bring in $1 Billion a Year for Ethiopia
Ethiopia says it hopes to avoid confrontation with Egyptian troops, who are preparing to join Somalia’s AU-backed foreign mission against Al-Shabaab, even as it warned it will be uncomfortable with any overreach.
AFRICAN ECONOMY INC.
IMF Mission to Review Egypt’s $8 Billion Loan Program This Month
An IMF delegation will visit Egypt in September to conduct merged reviews of its $8 billion loan program. A successful review could unlock a $2.5 billion disbursement, contingent on Cairo’s economic reform progress.
THE AFRICAN REPORT
Morocco Lobbies Trump for Polisario Terror Designation
Morocco has hired U.S. lobbying firm Scribe Strategies & Advisors in a $405,000 deal to push for Washington’s recognition of its Western Sahara claims and label the Polisario Front a terrorist group. The six-month contract comes amid renewed Trump-era ties and Algeria’s opposition.
LE POINT
Libya: A Peace Plan Against Armed Chaos
Libyan authorities said they foiled a rocket attack on the UN Mission’s headquarters in Tripoli as UN envoy Hanna Tetteh outlined a roadmap for elections and institutional unification. The plan, based on nationwide consultations, has a timeline of up to 18 months despite ongoing threats from armed groups.
THE AFRICAN REPORT
Five Questions to Understand the Drone War in the Sahel
Armed groups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger are increasingly using modified civilian drones for attacks, marking a new phase in the Sahel conflict. The shift adds pressure on national armies already struggling to contain years of insurgent violence.
LE POINT
Why is Tunisia Defending Abdelkader Dhibi?
Tunisia lodged a formal protest against France after police shot dead Abdelkader Dhibi, a Tunisian who stabbed five people in Marseille. The move signals worsening ties, as President Kaïs Saïed recasts relations with Paris around pan-Arab and Global South rhetoric, portraying Dhibi as a victim of Western excess.
AHRAM ONLINE
UN Envoy Mahmoud Mohieldin: Egypt Needs New Economic Path Beyond IMF Program
Egypt must shift from debt-driven policies to private investment-led growth, UN Special Envoy on Financing for Development, Mahmoud Mohieldin said. He called for lower interest rates, higher savings and exports, and a broader national program tackling education, healthcare, and infrastructure to ease long-term structural challenges.
AFRICA ECONOMY INC.
Egypt’s Non-oil Private Sector Contracts Further in August, PMI Shows
Egypt’s non-oil private sector contracted for a sixth month in August, with the PMI slipping to 49.2 from 49.5. Weak demand and inflation weighed on activity, though employment rose again and input cost inflation eased to its lowest in over four years.
BUSINESS INSIDER
Morocco Breaks into Africa’s Gold Powerhouses with Discovery of High-grade Deposits
Morocco confirms a major gold discovery in Guelmim, with high-grade deposits potentially holding 3-5 million ounces. This find could position the country among Africa’s top producers, significantly boosting its mining sector and export economy.
BLOOMBERG
Libya Eyes Revival of Gas Megaproject to Tackle Power Shortages
Libya’s National Oil Corp. has proposed reviving a stalled gas project, with potential partners including Eni, TotalEnergies, ADNOC and Turkish Petroleum. The plan would place a new operating company in Benghazi, boosting eastern authorities’ control over resources while aiming to ease nationwide power shortages.
ISTANBUL POST
Algerian LNG Vessel to Arrive in Türkiye on September 1
Algeria’s Hyproc Shipping LNG carrier Lalla Fatma N’Soumer is set to reach Türkiye’s Marmara Ereglisi terminal on September 1. The Bahamas-flagged vessel, built in 2004, departed Arzew on August 23 with a capacity of nearly 145,000 cubic meters.
THE ECONOMIST
Morocco is Now a Trade and Manufacturing Powerhouse
Morocco has emerged as Europe’s top car and parts supplier, drawing $40 billion in greenfield investment since 2020 and expanding ties with China. Alongside Egypt, it is positioning itself as a key North African hub for trade, manufacturing, and energy, linking Europe, Africa, and global supply chains.
CONSTRUCTION REVIEW ONLINE
China’s CSCEC Secures Steel Contracts for 430-kilometer Kenitra-Marrakesh High-Speed Rail Line and a Section of Morocco’s Highways
China’s CSCEC Steel Structure has entered Morocco with contracts to supply 28,200 tons of steel for the Kenitra–Marrakesh high-speed rail line and new highway bridges. Both projects form part of Morocco’s preparations for the 2030 World Cup and its broader infrastructure expansion.
REUTERS
Egypt Signs $340 Million Oil, Gas Exploration Deals with Global Firms
Egypt signed four oil and gas exploration deals worth over $340 million with Shell, Eni, Arcius Energy, and Zarubezhneft. The agreements cover 10 wells in the Mediterranean and Nile Delta as the country seeks to counter declining output and rising domestic demand.
UNEP
UNEP and ICAO Launch $82.5 Million Project to Eliminate Harmful Firefighting Foams in African Airports
The UN and ICAO launched an $82.5 million project to phase out PFAS-based firefighting foams at major airports in Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa. The initiative will replace toxic chemicals with safer alternatives and ensure safe disposal of thousands of tons of harmful material.
PV MAGAZINE
Chinese Manufacturer Plans Solar Glass Factory in Algeria
China’s Kibing Group has proposed building a solar glass plant in Algeria with an annual capacity of 1.53 million tons, plus a silica sand unit. The project, expected to create 3,000 jobs, is under review through joint working groups on feasibility, financing, and implementation.
BLOOMBERG
Egypt Cuts Rates More Than Expected as Inflation Slows
Egypt’s central bank cut interest rates by 200 basis points, lowering the deposit rate to 22% and lending rate to 23%. The move, aimed at supporting investment and easing debt costs, follows slowing inflation and a stronger pound, while keeping local debt attractive to foreign investors.
7 NEWS MOROCCO
Guizhou Tyre Eyes Morocco for Next Global Manufacturing Hub
China’s Guizhou Tyre plans to build a production facility in Morocco, its second overseas venture after Vietnam. Details on investment and scope remain pending a feasibility study and regulatory approval, as the company seeks to expand global reach in truck, bus, and off-road tire manufacturing.
PV MAGAZINE
The French Economic Team in Morocco
France’s Economic Team in Morocco is backing entrepreneurship and investment, linking public and private actors to support companies, finance projects, and expand bilateral partnerships. The initiative promotes French technologies, innovation tools, and international business volunteering to drive sustainable growth across both markets.
Reports & Analysis on the Region
Deeper dives from experts across the region.
COMMENTARY
Tipping Point: The Risks of Palestinian Displacement for Egypt
Israel’s military campaign in Gaza raised the prospect of mass Palestinian displacement into Egypt. Cairo firmly rejected this scenario, citing severe political and security risks, including potential destabilization and a resurgence of Islamist militancy. The situation threatened to exacerbate regional instability and migration pressures.
COMMENTARY
Why Algeria Should Choose Restraint Over War – The Deterrent Power of Prestige
Amid rising regional tensions, Algeria should avoid war despite growing tensions with Morocco, Libya, and Sahel states. Preserving military prestige and deterrence through restraint offers greater long-term security than direct confrontation because miscalculated conflict could erode Algeria’s regional standing.
COMMENTARY
A Quest for Predominance
Morocco acquires $1 billion Israeli spy satellites, significantly boosting its surveillance capabilities over Western Sahara. The deal deepens military ties with Israel under the Abraham Accords and intensifies a regional arms race with rival Algeria, which is acquiring advanced Russian fighter jets.
COMMENTARY
Kais Saied Appears to be in the Driver’s Seat…For Now
Tunisia’s President Kais Saied has remained firmly in power six years after his election and four years after reshaping the political system. While opposition has weakened via arrests and exile, his support has also eroded amid economic decline, union strikes, and low voter turnout, raising questions about the durability of his rule.
RESEARCH PAPER
Unravelling Sudan’s War: Actors and Future Trajectories
Sudan’s war pits the national army against the paramilitary RSF, deepening a catastrophic humanitarian crisis. Political fragmentation and resilient grassroots movements shape the conflict’s trajectory amid stalled peace efforts.
POLICY ALERT
The Gulf Rush: How Europe Can Keep Up in Africa
Gulf states are expanding their economic and political influence in Africa with massive investments. Europe cannot match this spending but can compete by offering technical expertise and market access to support African industrialization and value chains.
POLICY BRIEF
Preventing Violent Extremism: A Look Back At Mauritania’s Experience
A new policy brief examines how Mauritania has avoided major extremist violence since 2011, unlike its Sahel neighbors. It traces the country’s counterterrorism strategy, launched in 2012, which combines security action with measures such as prison dialogue programs to counter radical ideology.
RESEARCH NOTE
Migration policy: The Spanish Exception
Spain uses immigration to counter demographic decline and fuel economic growth, notably through large-scale worker regularizations. Its integration model prioritizes employment, though it faces pressure as a key EU entry point. Public opinion remains relatively supportive despite political polarization.
REPORT
Africa Wealth Report 2025: Continent Outpaces Global Growth as New Wealth Hubs Surge
Africa’s millionaire population is projected to grow 65% in a decade, outpacing global averages. South Africa leads with the most millionaires, while Mauritius shows the fastest growth. Rising travel restrictions are driving affluent Africans to seek investment migration options.
REPORT
Natural Capital and Economic Growth
A new study finds renewable resources drive economic growth more than non-renewable ones. Egypt is among a small group of nations, including Vietnam and Indonesia, where natural capital has made a positive contribution to growth over the past 25 years.
Tune In
Hear directly from experts, regional voices, and thought leaders shaping North Africa’s future.
VIDEO
Book Talk: China’s Middle East Math
On August 27, the Atlantic Council hosted Jonathan Fulton for a discussion on his book Building the Belt and Road Initiative in the Arab World. He outlined China’s “1+2+3” framework, examining projects in energy, infrastructure, and advanced technologies shaping Beijing’s role in the Middle East and North Africa.
PODCAST EPISODE
What Would Reparations for Colonialism Look Like?
More than 90% of Africa’s cultural artifacts remain in Europe. A new African Union policy paper, developed with the MEA Institute, outlines reparations through heritage repatriation, including an AU Endowment Fund to strengthen African institutions and advance community-centered restitution.
Job Opportunities
Career moves, fellowships, and calls for applications—all in one place.
CHATHAM HOUSE
Research Director for Africa, Middle East and North Africa, Asia-Pacific
Location: London, United Kingdom
