“Was it worth it?”
It’s a question that has been asked after practically every American war — a plaintive demand to understand whether the sacrifice in American blood was worth the ultimate benefits to US national security, American prestige, and the country’s place in the world.
There is a question, however, that needs to be asked — and rarely is — before American soldiers are sent into harm’s way. Is war worth it?
Too often, the decision to use military force is based on an untested set of assumptions, preconceived ideas of costs and benefits, and a political calculation of the long-term impact of going to war. Emotion rather than empiricism often drives decision-making.
The true, long-term costs of war — or its ultimate “worth” to the country — are rarely assessed and remain frustratingly opaque. How can a nation go to war without fully understanding or appreciating the potential long-term costs and benefits?
To help us tackle this question, we turned to the experts: security scholars, former policymakers, and former military officials who have made a career out of studying, understanding, and explaining war. We created a survey that asked a series of basic questions: “Which US wars were successes and which were failures?” What about wars fought by other countries? What are the metrics for assessing success and failure?
The responses were unexpected, not because they suggested broad agreement among a community of experts, but rather a striking lack of consensus.
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