Africa’s Emerging Space Industry
According to Space in Africa, the industry is on track to grow by 16.16% to a market valuation of $22.64 billion by 2026. Fifteen African nations have already invested over $4.71 billion in 58 satellite projects, and African countries plan to develop 105 satellites in the next three years. Over 300 NewSpace companies contribute to the region’s development through advancements in satellite systems and constellations, spacecraft components and propulsion, and emerging technologies, to name a few. Earth Observation, Positioning & Navigation, and Connectivity are the dominant market segments.
African Space Policy and Strategy
African leaders’ approach to space reflects their political values and strategic priorities for meeting the Sustainable Development Goals laid out in:
- The AU Handbook — Article 3 stipulates goals such as socioeconomic integration; international cooperation; and peace, security, and stability.
- AGENDA 2063 — Aspiration 7 includes a desire for the region to become a strong, united, resilient, and influential global player and partner.
- The Africa Free Continental Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) — the AfCFTA is considered the world’s largest trade agreement since the World Trade Organisation (WTO), worth up to $1 trillion by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and through which up to 30 million people could be lifted out of poverty by means of enhanced trade facilitation, according to the WTO.
- The Digital Transformation Strategy for Africa (2020-2030) — underscores the symbiotic relationship between the digital and space industry. Africa is considered the fastest-growing digital market requiring quicker adoption of digital tools to accommodate a younger population (the average age is 19.6 years, and by 2050 one in four people globally will be African. For this reason, organizations should consider the competitive advantage of operating in and catering to the African market).
In the context of space, the African Space Policy and Strategy documents both provide a framework for the continent’s space priorities; the former highlights Africa’s goals and priorities, and the latter expounds on the programmatic elements for implementation. The common thread in both documents is Africans’ desire to enhance space capabilities.
Scholars have proffered various definitions pertaining to space capability, which signals a need to be mindful of the terminology used when referring to Africa specifically and to reflect on whether capacity-building or capability-building are appropriate concepts. One might opine that building capacity creates the potential or conditions to act, while building capability demonstrates the capacity to do so. For example, the Handbook for Space Capability Development defines space capability as “the ability to access, use, and contribute to space-related infrastructure, as well as to access and use space-based natural common resources.” Other space experts alternatively describe it as the “gradual development of local expertise and know-how through personal training and technology transfers… and autonomy is increased gradually through several generations of programs.” Capacity-building, then, is the uptake of the information or tech transferred via collaboration, whereas capability-building is proving the use and integration of the former, independent of the source. With its focus on development, this latter definition may be better suited to the African space context.
Building International Space Partnerships
Developing space capabilities in the region also requires support from mutually reciprocal, capability-building programs with space-faring nations to bridge the knowledge and technology divide. A series of international, interagency and industry partnerships occurred in 2023 that address bolstering local capacity and capability. Examples include Russia employing the BRICS consortium as a means of involving partners in joint scientific research, the Egyptian Space Agency rallying the support of Azerbaijan and China to augment its satellite systems and manufacturing, assembly, and testing facilities, and the recently held African Union-European Union (AU-EU) space dialogue — the first of its kind — further solidifying the European Union as a development partner for the region.
At the same time, the United States continues to open avenues for engaging with Africa, first during the US/Africa Space Partnership Roundtable, a precursor to the US-Africa Space Forum hosted in Washington, DC, in December 2022. More recently, the participants from both regions met at the International Astronautical Congress 2023 hosted in Baku, Azerbaijan, for the US-Africa Commercial Space Stakeholders Meeting, where mutual respect and a willingness to forge a pathway to meaningful cooperation was envisioned. The key takeaway from these meetings is that international partnerships require continuous dialogue, transparent processes, and intentional management of expectations.
Given that emerging markets are less likely than established markets, like the US or EU, to be early adopters of space technologies, international cooperation should envisage empowering the former to demonstrate the capacity to act independently of the enabling powers. To realize this vision, such efforts would need to address tech diplomacy and the impact of big corporations on international development and capability-building. The top 10,000 space companies have a combined value of at least $4 trillion and generated $427 billion in revenue for 2022. Maintaining an equal playing field when negotiating with large space companies becomes an exercise in mutual reciprocity, transparency, and confidence-building. When the private sector possesses such vast economic influence, it can exhibit state-like powers when entering new markets. Transparency and confidence-building measures have historically formed the basis of U.S. national strategies, such as the 2010 US National Space Policy, which viewed knowledge-sharing as an adequate means of assuring trust at the bilateral and multilateral levels. Ultimately, as space tech assumes wider infrastructural and developmental significance, each state (and by extension region) becomes responsible for anticipating its own diplomatic strategy for engaging with a multitude of diverse stakeholders across the rapidly interconnected globe.
The Path Forward for AfSA
The AfSA has three main tasks ahead: harmonizing policies, legislation, and regulations to foster regional and international cooperation; implementing new laws, policies, and regulations that address the programmatic needs of member states while also stimulating and accelerating the uptake and integration of space products and services; and enabling interagency collaboration and effective communication among existing and future regional institutions. To achieve those goals, the AfSA should monitor governance success, including measuring the efficacy of top-down versus bottom-up approaches, as well as which tools or mechanisms have proved necessary for creating the requisite knowledge/benefits-sharing environment.
Some recommendations to this end include:
- Advocating for the use of soft-law as interim measures. Soft laws are non-binding, non-enforceable norms agreed to among parties; stakeholders can use soft laws to test principles before agreeing to hard-law provisions (short term);
- Supporting the wider adoption of international treaty laws into domestic legislation (medium-term); and
- Creating a regional governance structure, perhaps polycentric in nature, that mandates distinct roles in managing a multi-stakeholder environment (long-term).
These processes should be supported in multilateral initiatives such as the UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, as well as industry-led and regional fora. It remains to be seen to what extent African stakeholders will engage with niche developments in space sustainability (whether through technical or nontechnical interventions), deep-space exploration, and the integration of new and emerging technologies into space business models. What is clear, however, is that Africa’s growing population and ambitions, coupled with an untapped market potential under AfCFTA, present an unprecedented opportunity to test the bounds of what space for the common good can achieve, through commercial innovation and proactive, collaborative governance.
Ruvimbo Samanga is a space policy analyst seeking to collaborate on space-related, capability-building research and projects for the African and global space sector. She currently serves as an Ambassador at the MILO Space Science Institute, a research collaborative led by the Arizona State University, with support from Lockheed Martin
Who Woke the Sleeping Giant? Africa’s Emerging Space Programs Take Off
By Ruvimbo Samanga
Grand Strategy
As Africa looks to close the development gap, it has turned to space as a catalyst for economic growth and social change. Africa’s space industry is premised on solving developmental challenges through digital and data applications, products, and services. The creation of the African Space Agency (AfSA) in 2017 and its formal inauguration in January of this year — as well as regional initiatives — demonstrate that African leaders want to develop comprehensive, home-grown solutions to promote solidarity and a new way of thinking about the continent’s role in the future space economy.
Africa’s Emerging Space Industry
According to Space in Africa, the industry is on track to grow by 16.16% to a market valuation of $22.64 billion by 2026. Fifteen African nations have already invested over $4.71 billion in 58 satellite projects, and African countries plan to develop 105 satellites in the next three years. Over 300 NewSpace companies1 NewSpace companies is a term used to describe the new wave of commercial enterprises in space. contribute to the region’s development through advancements in satellite systems and constellations, spacecraft components and propulsion, and emerging technologies, to name a few. Earth Observation, Positioning & Navigation, and Connectivity are the dominant market segments.
African Space Policy and Strategy
African leaders’ approach to space reflects their political values and strategic priorities for meeting the Sustainable Development Goals laid out in:
In the context of space, the African Space Policy and Strategy documents both provide a framework for the continent’s space priorities; the former highlights Africa’s goals and priorities, and the latter expounds on the programmatic elements for implementation. The common thread in both documents is Africans’ desire to enhance space capabilities.
Scholars have proffered various definitions pertaining to space capability, which signals a need to be mindful of the terminology used when referring to Africa specifically and to reflect on whether capacity-building or capability-building are appropriate concepts. One might opine that building capacity creates the potential or conditions to act, while building capability demonstrates the capacity to do so. For example, the Handbook for Space Capability Development defines space capability as “the ability to access, use, and contribute to space-related infrastructure, as well as to access and use space-based natural common resources.” Other space experts alternatively describe it as the “gradual development of local expertise and know-how through personal training and technology transfers… and autonomy is increased gradually through several generations of programs.” Capacity-building, then, is the uptake of the information or tech transferred via collaboration, whereas capability-building is proving the use and integration of the former, independent of the source. With its focus on development, this latter definition may be better suited to the African space context.
Building International Space Partnerships
Developing space capabilities in the region also requires support from mutually reciprocal, capability-building programs with space-faring nations to bridge the knowledge and technology divide. A series of international, interagency and industry partnerships occurred in 2023 that address bolstering local capacity and capability. Examples include Russia employing the BRICS consortium as a means of involving partners in joint scientific research, the Egyptian Space Agency rallying the support of Azerbaijan and China to augment its satellite systems and manufacturing, assembly, and testing facilities, and the recently held African Union-European Union (AU-EU) space dialogue — the first of its kind — further solidifying the European Union as a development partner for the region.
At the same time, the United States continues to open avenues for engaging with Africa, first during the US/Africa Space Partnership Roundtable, a precursor to the US-Africa Space Forum hosted in Washington, DC, in December 2022. More recently, the participants from both regions met at the International Astronautical Congress 2023 hosted in Baku, Azerbaijan, for the US-Africa Commercial Space Stakeholders Meeting, where mutual respect and a willingness to forge a pathway to meaningful cooperation was envisioned. The key takeaway from these meetings is that international partnerships require continuous dialogue, transparent processes, and intentional management of expectations.
Given that emerging markets are less likely than established markets, like the US or EU, to be early adopters of space technologies, international cooperation should envisage empowering the former to demonstrate the capacity to act independently of the enabling powers. To realize this vision, such efforts would need to address tech diplomacy and the impact of big corporations on international development and capability-building. The top 10,000 space companies have a combined value of at least $4 trillion and generated $427 billion in revenue for 2022. Maintaining an equal playing field when negotiating with large space companies becomes an exercise in mutual reciprocity, transparency, and confidence-building. When the private sector possesses such vast economic influence, it can exhibit state-like powers when entering new markets. Transparency and confidence-building measures have historically formed the basis of U.S. national strategies, such as the 2010 US National Space Policy, which viewed knowledge-sharing as an adequate means of assuring trust at the bilateral and multilateral levels. Ultimately, as space tech assumes wider infrastructural and developmental significance, each state (and by extension region) becomes responsible for anticipating its own diplomatic strategy for engaging with a multitude of diverse stakeholders across the rapidly interconnected globe.
The Path Forward for AfSA
The AfSA has three main tasks ahead: harmonizing policies, legislation, and regulations to foster regional and international cooperation; implementing new laws, policies, and regulations that address the programmatic needs of member states while also stimulating and accelerating the uptake and integration of space products and services; and enabling interagency collaboration and effective communication among existing and future regional institutions. To achieve those goals, the AfSA should monitor governance success, including measuring the efficacy of top-down versus bottom-up approaches, as well as which tools or mechanisms have proved necessary for creating the requisite knowledge/benefits-sharing environment.
Some recommendations to this end include:
These processes should be supported in multilateral initiatives such as the UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, as well as industry-led and regional fora. It remains to be seen to what extent African stakeholders will engage with niche developments in space sustainability (whether through technical or nontechnical interventions), deep-space exploration, and the integration of new and emerging technologies into space business models. What is clear, however, is that Africa’s growing population and ambitions, coupled with an untapped market potential under AfCFTA, present an unprecedented opportunity to test the bounds of what space for the common good can achieve, through commercial innovation and proactive, collaborative governance.
Ruvimbo Samanga is a space policy analyst seeking to collaborate on space-related, capability-building research and projects for the African and global space sector. She currently serves as an Ambassador at the MILO Space Science Institute, a research collaborative led by the Arizona State University, with support from Lockheed Martin
Notes
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