Resilience in Ukraine: A Retrospective on the Occupation of Zaporizhzhia & Efforts to Prevent Disaster

Dear Friends and Colleagues,

After Russia invaded Ukraine one year ago and targeted civilian nuclear power plants as part of its offensive, the INSF quickly adapted this monthly newsletter to better track the unprecedented developments that were so rapidly changing the landscape of the nuclear security field. We mark the somber anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine this week with this special edition of the INSF newsletter, reviewing some of the past year’s key headlines about the implications for safety and security at Ukraine’s civil nuclear power plants, especially the occupied Zaporizhzhia plant, and beyond. Civil society, and members of this forum in particular, have been active in exploring those implications and vocal in calling out disinformation, highlighting ways to support Ukraine’s civilian nuclear sector, and identifying needed reforms to international regimes. It is an honor to collect and review this impressive body of work in one edition, and we are pleased to share it with you here.  

Christina McAllister

Interim Director, International Nuclear Security Forum

Join the conversation on Twitter: @INS_Forum

INSF Activities on Nuclear Security in Ukraine

• In partnership with the Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation, the INSF hosted a virtual briefing on March 22, 2022, for Congressional staff that addressed the past, present, and future of U.S. nuclear security cooperation with adversaries and allies. The briefing featured presentations from INSF member and research professor at the Institute for International Science and Technology Policy, Elliott School of International Affairs, at the George Washington University, Sharon Squassoni, and Sam Nunn Professor and Chair of the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology, Adam Stulberg.
• INSF hosted an event on the margins of the A/CPPNM review conference. The event, “Ways Non-Governmental Organizations and Civil Society Support Global and Regional Nuclear Security” was held on March 29, 2022 and reviewed the pilot edition of the Catalogue of Civil Society Activities Strengthening Nuclear Security to examine how non-governmental organizations and civil society have contributed to nuclear security through a diverse range of topics and programs. In reflecting on these contributions, INSF Director Richard Cupitt moderated a panel discussion with Matthew Bunn (Project on Managing the Atom) and Elena Sokova (Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation) to explore how civil society-stakeholder cooperation efforts could be further improved to create a stronger, more robust global nuclear security program, especially in light of the Russian occupation of Zaporizhzhia. Learn more.
• The Forum published Ali Alkis’ “Nuclear Security During Armed Conflict” as part of its Nuclear Security Policy Menu Series. The piece examined recommendations for strengthening the international framework to address nuclear security challenges during hostilities in light of Russian aggression in Ukraine. Read the piece.
• Rick Cupitt provided commentary on behalf of the INSF examining the nuclear security implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and implications on future arms control as part of a Carnegie Corporation of New York event held on July 28, 2022.
• On December 13, 2022, the INSF hosted a virtual briefing for Congressional staff discussing nuclear security challenges in Ukraine for both operators and dual-use scientists and avenues for supporting resilience and security at Ukrainian nuclear facilities. The briefing featured remarks from Mariana Budjeryn, Senior Research Associate with the Project on Managing the Atom (MTA) at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center and Tinatin Japaridze, Vice President of Business Development and Strategy at The Critical Mass LLC.

Member Organization Activities

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

• François Diaz-Maurin wrote an article titled, “The 2022 nuclear year in review: A global nuclear order in shambles” for The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists examining nuclear risk and inadequacy in the international system. Read the piece.
• John Mecklin, Editor of The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, announced a change to the Doomsday Clock on January 24, 2023, “A Time of Unprecedented Danger: It is 90 Seconds to Midnight.” The Security Board of the BAS moved the hands of the Doomsday Clock to 90 seconds to midnight—the closest to global catastrophe it has ever been. The BAS cited the mounting dangers of the war in Ukraine, Russia’s thinly veiled threats to use nuclear weapons, and the impeding challenges of climate change. As UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned in August, the world has entered “a time of nuclear danger not seen since the height of the Cold War.” Read the announcement.

Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation

• Matthew Teasdale at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation published an article, “Protecting Against Disaster—The Need for a Security Assurance at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.” The article discusses how a Russian-made nuclear incident could yield catastrophic damage short of a nuclear attack. Even if by accident, the triggering of a reactor meltdown would introduce environmental and political challenges paralleled only by nuclear weapons, including transboundary radiation, cross-generational health effects, long-term psychological harm to residents as well quarantine of irradiated lands for decades. Teasdale notes that setting clear rules, especially when coupled with commitments to assist any country whose nuclear facilities are attacked (positive security assurances), would help reduce the danger posed by war near nuclear facilities. Read the article.

Henry L. Stimson Center

• On May 26, 2022, the Stimson Center and the INSF hosted Ambassador Laura S. H. Holgate for a hybrid roundtable discussion on nuclear security in Ukraine with civil society members in Washington, D.C.

International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)

• On April 1, 2022 William Alberque and Fabian Hoffman published an op-ed in the Washington Post entitled, “Three scenarios for nuclear risk over Ukraine — and how NATO can respond.” View the op-ed.
• William Alberque, the Director of Strategy, Technology, and Arms Control, published an analysis on October 10, 2022, “Russia is Unlikely to Use Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine.” Read the article.

James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS)

• On March 10, 2022, William Potter authored “The Fallout from Russia’s Attack on Ukrainian Nuclear Facilities,” in War on the Rocks. Read the piece.
• William Potter also co-authored, “Russian Misinformation about Ukrainian Radiological Weapons Capabilities and Intentions” with Matthew Goldenberg in CNS’ collection, Putin’s War with Ukraine: Voices of CNS Experts on the Russian Invasion. Read the article.
• On November 14, 2022, CNS members Hanna Notte and Chen Kane produced a paper, “Russian-Turkish Relations and Implications for U.S. Strategy and Operations.” Their study provides an analysis of Russia’s war against Ukraine and Turkey’s centrality to the pursuit of U.S. strategic interests. Read the paper.  
• George Moore authored two pieces in The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists regarding attacks on Ukrainian nuclear reactors. His March 6, 2022, article, “How International Law Applies to Attacks on Nuclear and Associated Facilities in Ukraine,” examined the responsibilities of the international legal regime in regard to Russian attacks. The unprecedented attacks challenged international norms and called into question whether the postwar international system will need to consider putting stronger legal measures in place to prevent and punish future attacks. Read the piece here. His December 15, 2022, article, “Why the World Must Protect Reactors from Military Attacks. Now,” continued to raise concerns over the threats of attacks on Ukraine’s nuclear reactors. The article argued that the international community must act immediately to craft international agreements or treaties regarding nuclear reactors and facilities during war time, and laid out a series of potentially viable options. Learn more.

Managing the Atom

• On July 7, 2022, Francesca Giovannini published an article in Arms Control Today, “Negative Security Assurances After Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine,” where she examines the implications of the Russian occupation of a neighboring European state on international and nuclear security. Read the article.
• Mariana Budjeryn was interviewed by CNN on the rising tensions when Zaporizhzhia was cut off from the Ukrainian power grid. Watch the video.
• Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation’s Nukes of Hazard podcast hosts spoke with Mariana Budjeryn learn about Ukraine’s game-changing decision to give up the bomb after the fall of the USSR. Listen to the podcast.
• Mariana Budjeryn was featured on ABC News’ “When will the Ukraine-Russia War End?” Watch the clip.
• Mariana Budjeryn spoke on the panel, “Poles Apart: Deterrence or Disarmament after the Russo-Ukrainian War?” at the Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference on October 27 2022.
• Mariana Budjeryn spoke at the Ploughshares Fund’s annual nuclear policy forum, “Press the Button LIVE: Nuclear Policy in Crisis” on November 16, 2022. She was joined by Scott Sagan and Ben Rhodes for a panel on Ukraine, discussing nuclear security, deterrence, and the future of the nuclear field. Listen here.
• On December 1, 2022, Matthew Bunn wrote a piece titled, “Russia’s “dirty bomb” disinformation, annotated,” in The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Read the piece.

NPSGlobal

• Irma Arguello and the NPSGlobal staff have been intensively participating in different media, TV, and radio interviews, in addition to written contributions, to provide insights about the war in Ukraine in general, the role of nuclear weapons, and the change of paradigm in the security of nuclear power plants – especially in the wake of the Zaporizhzhia attack.  These contributions included interviews for CNNE (in Spanish) that broadcast throughout Latin America and the US, NTN24, France24, Noticias Caracol, Infobae, TN of Argentina and La Nación Más.

Nuclear Threat Initiative

• Nick Roth published an article in The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, “The Ukraine Invasion Highlights Why Biden’s Nuclear Posture Review Should Endorse Bold New Vision for Nuclear Security,” on February 28, 2022. Read his article.
• On April 22, 2022, NTI published a full list of NTI resources on the war in Ukraine, including key interviews, op-eds, official statements, and reports. Explore the resources.
• On April 15, 2022, NTI published its 2021 Annual Report, detailing the organization’s accomplishments in reducing global nuclear and biological threats before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and as the global COVID-19 pandemic raged on. Read the report.
• Scott Roecker spoke with CBS News for their piece, Ukraine and Russia trade blame over nuclear risk. Read the article.  
• On February 18, 2023, NTI hosted its annual event at the Munich Security Conference, “Advancing Global Nuclear Failsafe” to discuss the implications of Ukraine, and the fog of conflict overall, as heightening the risk of nuclear catastrophe.

Odesa Center for Nonproliferation (OdCNP)

• Ali Alkis published “OdCNP Nuclear Security Monthly Update: October Report.” The report provides an overview of nuclear security developments, including the Russian occupation of Zaporizhzhia, IAEA consultations, and Russian misinformation about “dirty bombs.” Click here to read the publication.
• On November 12, 2022, Ali Alkis published “‘Dirty Bombs’: Weapons of Mass Disruptions,” in Indian Strategic Studies Forum. Read the piece.
• Head of the OdCNP, Polina Sinovets took part in the documentary that the ZDF channel is preparing about Russian nuclear threats and the future of deterrence in the context of the war in Ukraine. See more.
• Ali Alkis published “OdCNP Nuclear Security Monthly Update: December Report.” The report provides an overview of nuclear security developments, including the Russian occupation of Zaporizhzhia, IAEA glossary publication, and a “kamikaze” drone over part of the South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant. Read the publication.
• On February 7, 2023, Ali Alkis presented the international legal framework regarding the attacks against nuclear facilities during a workshop organized by the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS) and OdCNP in Paris, France.
• On February 21, 2023, Ali Alkis and Valeriia Gergiieva published the article “Why Russia may control Turkey’s nuclear energy for the next 80 years,” about Turkish-Russian nuclear cooperation and its challenges for Turkey. Read the article.

Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS)

• On August 26, 2022, Ed Lyman published a blog post, “Can the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant Avoid a Major Disaster?” on the UCS website. Read the piece.

University of Antwerp

• On February 15, 2023, Tom Sauer of Research Group International Politics at the University of Antwerp, Belgium had an interview with the Clingendael Institute about nuclear threats and the war in Ukraine. Read the Q&A.

Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation (VCDNP)

• On May 5, 2022, the VCDNP and the International Affairs Institute (IAI) visited the University of Turin as part of the EUNPDC effort to engage the next generation in non-proliferation, disarmament and arms control through the Young Women and Next Generation Initiative (YWNGI), discussing security, nuclear weapons, and the impact of the war in Ukraine. Read more.  
• On May 18, VCDNP Senior Research Associate Dr. Hanna Notte testified to the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee on the implications of Russia’s war against Ukraine for Moscow’s interests, role and diplomacy in the Middle East. Learn more.  
• In his July 2022 article in The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, VCDNP Senior Fellow Dr. Nikolai Sokov argues that the deployment of Russian non-strategic nuclear weapons in Belarus would be a new and potentially dangerous development in the ever-worsening security situation in Europe. Dr. Sokov further notes that this new stage in the military standoff between Russia and NATO demonstrates that their relations, for the time being, will be almost exclusively confined to mutual deterrence. Read the article.  
• Hanna Notte, a senior research associate with the VCDNP, published a piece in Foreign Policy entitled “How Ukraine Has Changed Russian Diplomacy” on September 16, 2022. Her analysis argues that Russia’s pursuit of alternative diplomatic avenues has taken on new urgency since its invasion of Ukraine in February. Read the piece.
• VCDNP Non-Resident Senior Fellow John Carlson wrote a new article discussing the prohibition of military attacks on nuclear facilities on September 12, 2022. Read more.
• On October 27, 2022, Hanna Notte presented on the panel, “Arms Control in Europe After the Russo-Ukrainian War, Really?” at the Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference.  
• On October 10, 2022, the VCDNP and the International Affairs Institute (IAI) organized a joint at the University of Roma Tre titled: “International Security, Nuclear Weapons and the War in Ukraine.” The event is part of the Young Women and Next Generation Initiative (YWNGI), an effort of the EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Consortium (EUNPDC) to engage the next generation in non-proliferation, disarmament, and arms control. Learn more.  

Individual Member Updates

• On March 22, 2022, Bahram Ghiassee co-authored an opinion piece addressing nuclear and radiological security in Ukraine, and drew parallels between the situation in Ukraine, and the ramifications of any attacks on nuclear installations & facilities in Iran. Read the piece.

A Year in Review: Nuclear Security News Highlights from the Invasion of Ukraine

Zaporizhzhia Updates

• Russian Army Turns Ukraine’s Largest Nuclear Plant Into a Military base: “At the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in southern Ukraine, more than 500 Russian soldiers who seized the plant in March have in recent weeks deployed heavy artillery batteries and laid anti-personnel mines along the shores of the reservoir whose water cools its six reactors, according to workers, residents, Ukrainian officials, and diplomats. The Ukrainian army holds the towns dotted on the opposite shore, some 3 miles away, but sees no easy way to attack the plant, given the inherent danger of artillery battles around active nuclear reactors.”
• Russian Invaders Have Abducted 11 Employees of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in a Week: In temporarily occupied Enerhodar, the Russian military abducted 11 employees of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). Where they are now is unknown.”
• ‘The Hole’: Gruesome Accounts of Russian Occupation Emerge From Ukrainian Nuclear Plant: “Hooded and handcuffed, Ihor Murashov, director general of Europe’s largest nuclear plant, was on the stone floor of a basement prison, accused by masked men of betraying Russia. He could hear the captors interrogating his chauffeur. The 46-year-old Mr. Murashov, who had led the occupied Zaporizhzhia atomic energy station for seven months, was ordered by gun-brandishing guards to face the lens of a video camera. “What you say now will determine your fate,” he recalled one telling him.”
• Russia Installs Shield Over Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Storage Site: “A shield is being set up over a storage site for spent nuclear waste at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine to protect it from shelling and drones, a Russian-installed official said on Saturday…Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in a call on Tuesday with reporters that Russia remains in contact with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which is trying to broker a demilitarised zone around the power station. Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia’s permanent representative to the international organisations in Vienna, told TASS news agency on Saturday: “It’s probably too early to say that we’re approaching an agreement. And I wouldn’t predict the timing of the finalisation of the negotiation process.”

Nuclear Security Risks

• The Russian War in Ukraine and the Impact on Nuclear Security, Arms Control Must Remain the Goal: “From the beginning of the conflict, the United States and NATO repeatedly conveyed the message that they would not send troops to defend Ukraine, although they were prepared to arm the government in Kyiv and raise the costs of intervention for Russia. Still, while launching the military operation, Russian President Vladimir Putin explicitly warned the West not to think of intervening militarily, implicitly threatening that this could lead to a nuclear war.”
• War in Ukraine Heightens Nuclear Security Risks: “Nuclear security experts and sources in Ukraine argue that Russian and Ukrainian troops know precisely where Ukraine’s nuclear facilities are, and that neither have any interest in triggering a radiological incident. Nevertheless, the possibility of an unintentional strike poses a very real threat… Energoatom has previously stated that it was prepared for conflict. ‘From the point of view of nuclear security, we have made our own preparations in case something happens, something bad happens[.]’”
•  Ukraine Terminates Nuclear Security Agreements With Russia: Ukraine announced its termination of nuclear agreements with Russia in an official statement that read: Because of the military aggression of the Russian Federation, the State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate of Ukraine suspends the observance of international treaties that relate to cooperation among states in the field of nuclear security.”

Threats

• Putin Declares a Nuclear Alert, and Biden Seeks De-escalation: “When Vladimir V. Putin declared Sunday that he was putting his nuclear forces into ‘special combat readiness’ – a heightened alert status reminiscent of some of the most dangerous moments of the Cold War – President Biden and his aides had a choice. For now, at least, Mr. Biden chose to de-escalate. The American ambassador to the United Nations reminded the Security Council…that Russia was ‘under no threat’ and chided Mr. Putin for ‘another escalatory and unnecessary step that threatens us all.’”
• Interactive Map and New Risk Analysis Reveals Severe Hazards at Ukraine’s Nuclear Plants Caused by Russian Invasion: “Created with data from the Institute for the Study of War and the Centre for Information Resilience among others, and displaying the proximity of Russian troops and military hardware to each of Ukraine’s 15 commercial nuclear reactors over time, the interactive map provides a chilling interactive visualisation of the potential for nuclear catastrophe at regular intervals.”
• Ukraine Warns of ‘Nuclear Terrorism’ After Strike Near Plant: “A Russian missile blasted a crater close to a nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine… damaging nearby industrial equipment but not hitting its three reactors. The missile struck within 300 meters (328 yards) of the reactors at the South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant near the city of Yuzhnoukrainsk in Mykolaiv province, leaving a hole 2 meters (6 1/2 feet) deep and 4 meters (13 feet) wide, according to Ukrainian nuclear operator Energoatom.”
• Dirty Bombs Sow Fear and Panic, Cause Few Deaths: “Dirty bombs have long been feared as a potential weapon of terrorists because their main objective is to sow panic, confusion and anxiety by hurling radioactive dust and smoke into the atmosphere. The Kremlin alleges that Ukraine is preparing to detonate a dirty bomb in order to blame it on Russia and force an escalation to the war that has entered its ninth month. Western countries have dismissed that claim as “transparently false.” Although no dirty bomb attack has ever been recorded, two failed attempts to detonate such a device were reported in the southern Russian province of Chechnya more than two decades ago.”
• Putin: Nuclear Risk is Rising, But We Are Not Mad: “The Russian president insisted that his country would only use weapons of mass destruction in response to an attack. Speaking at Russia’s annual human rights council meeting, he also said the war in Ukraine could be a “lengthy process.”…“Such a threat is growing, it would be wrong to hide it,” Putin warned while talking about the prospect of nuclear war via video link from Moscow. But he asserted that Russia would “under no circumstances” use the weapons first, and would not threaten anyone with its nuclear arsenal. “We have not gone mad, we are aware of what nuclear weapons are,” he said, adding: “We aren’t about to run around the world brandishing this weapon like a razor.”

International Architecture

• How Has Vladimir Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine Upended the World Nuclear Order: “The prior global nuclear order was based on nuclear nonproliferation as its central element with Russia playing a central role in an international system involving other agreements, practices, and norms of cooperation. With a formerly responsible nuclear state that is still actively involved in the nuclear arena now an outcast in the international community, how should democracies respond?”
• Putin Submits Law on Suspending Nuclear Arms Treaty: “Russia will continue to observe limits on the number of nuclear warheads it can deploy under the New START treaty despite a decision to suspend participation in the agreement, Moscow said on Tuesday. President Vladimir Putin announced the freeze during a speech to both houses of the Russian parliament in which he also repeated accusations the West was seeking to destroy Russia. Later in the day Putin submitted a draft law on the suspension to the Duma, the lower house of parliament, which will consider it on Wednesday and take an immediate decision, Duma speaker Vyacheslav Volodin said in a statement… In its statement, the ministry blamed the United States for Russia’s decision to suspend the treaty, accusing Washington of being in non-compliance with its provisions and of trying to undermine Russia’s national security. “There is every reason to state that U.S. policy is aimed at undermining Russia’s national security, which directly contradicts the fundamental principles and understandings enshrined in the preamble of the treaty,” it said.”
• Zelenskyy and Grossi Discussed Strengthening Nuclear Infrastructure Security: “President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a meeting with Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, who is now on a working visit to Ukraine. The Ukrainian President noted the active role of the IAEA in resolving issues related to nuclear security, which is extremely important against the background of the war launched by Russia against Ukraine…Zelenskyy noted the importance of the efforts of the Director General of the IAEA aimed at explaining to the agency’s member countries violations of nuclear safety standards by Russia and bringing to the world community the need for the speedy liberation of the Zaporizhzhia atomic power plant.”

Global Response

• Fukushima Disaster Victim Outraged by Attack on Ukraine Nuclear Plant: “Fukushima Municipal Government officials have visited Ukraine to learn about radiation countermeasures. In a statement, Fukushima Mayor Hiroshi Kohata said, ‘A human-caused nuclear accident is absolutely intolerable. Our hearts are with Ukraine.’”
• Russia Says U.S. Blocked its Participation in Nuclear Conference: “The Russian state nuclear corporation Rosatom said… that the United States had effectively blocked Russia’s participation in a nuclear energy conference in Washington by failing to issue entry visas. Relations between the United States and Russia have sunk to their lowest level since the depths of the Cold War after Moscow sent its armed forces troops into Ukraine in February. Rosatom and Russia’s industrial safety watchdog, Rostekhnadzor, planned to attend the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) ministerial conference in Washington on Oct. 26-28 but have yet to receive visas, Rosatom said in a statement…‘[w]e consider this to be a show of disrespect on part of the United States towards the IAEA,’ it added.”
• Ukraine Plant Must Be Seized from Russia, Nuclear Chief Says: “Ukraine must seize Europe’s biggest nuclear power plant back from Russia by force as efforts to establish a security zone around it evaporate, Kyiv’s top nuclear official said. Petro Kotin, the president of Ukraine’s nuclear utility Energoatom, cast doubt on calls by the [IAEA] for Ukrainian and Russian authorities to impose a security perimeter around the Zaporizhzhia plant in southern Ukraine. ‘We do not think it is realistic,’ Kotin said in an interview late Tuesday of the IAEA’s effort to establish a security buffer. ‘There is a new year and there is no creation of this zone.’”
• IAEA Sends Staff to All Ukraine Nuclear Plants in Safety Bid: “The International Atomic Energy Agency is placing teams of experts at all four of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants to reduce the risk of severe accidents as Russia’s war against the country rages on, agency head Rafael Grossi said… The IAEA’s permanent presence at all of Ukraine’s nuclear facilities, with at least 11 staff in total, marks an unprecedented expansion for the agency. IAEA technicians will also be at Chernobyl, the now-closed nuclear plant that was the site of a deadly nuclear accident in 1986 that spread fallout over much of Europe… The IAEA flags flying in Ukraine are ‘not just symbolic’ said Grossi. ‘They reflect and they will signify the presence of some of the best-renowned experts in safety and security who will provide advice, and technical support during this very difficult time to each facility facing different challenges and problems depending on the situation.’”