As Israel prepares a full-scale ground invasion of Gaza in response to Hamas’s surprise attack out of Gaza on Oct. 7, Arab states in the region are worried about destabilizing effects across the Middle East. In particular, they fear more involvement by Iran and its regional partners which could escalate into an overt war between Israel and Iran with massive collateral damage to Arab countries that have recognized Israel or flirted with normalization.
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Egypt are seeking ways to de-escalate the situation but so far, they have failed to convince Israel to halt its bombing of civilians in Gaza or its siege of the coastal territory. Nonetheless, there is still a productive role that these Arab allies and partners of the U.S. can play as mediators and diplomatic backchannels when it comes to securing the release of hostages and prisoners held by both sides as well as negotiating an ultimate cease-fire and even helping to create an alternative political leadership for Gaza
The Biden administration has adopted a policy of holding Israel close in public and not second-guessing its harsh response to the Hamas attacks. As the Huffington Post reported on Oct. 13, the State Department has been calling on U.S. diplomats to avoid three phrases: “de-escalation/ceasefire,” “end to violence/bloodshed” and “restoring calm.”
Nonetheless, the U.S. reportedly pushed Israel into resuming the water supply to southern Gaza, which, according to White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, is in line with the White House’s efforts aimed at ensuring that “innocent Palestinians get access to those basic necessities and are protected from bombardment.” Additionally on Oct. 15, Biden appointed veteran U.S. diplomat David Satterfield, a former U.S. ambassador to Turkey, as Special Envoy for Middle East Humanitarian Issues. Satterfield will lead U.S. diplomacy toward alleviating Gaza’s humanitarian crisis in coordination with regional partners and the United Nations.
Most Arab states see de-escalation as the only sane path forward and believe that more violence will only breed more bloodshed and hatred. High-ranking Qatari and Emirati officials have been on the phone with statesmen in the region and across the world to discuss the violence, while seeking to rally the international community to push the parties toward de-escalation.
Even those Arab countries that have normalized relations with Israel or flirted with normalization like Saudi Arabia disagree with Washington about the root cause of the violence. While President Biden and other U.S. officials engage in Manichean good-versus-evil rhetoric, policymakers in Arab countries, even those which have long histories of problems with Hamas, generally see the prolonged Israeli occupation of Gaza, East Jerusalem, and the West Bank as the heart of the fighting. That is certainly the view of their populations who have turned out en masse in pro-Palestinian solidarity demonstrations, like those in pro-Western countries like Bahrain and Jordan on Oct. 13.
Qatar, which provides sanctuary for Hamas leaders and has taken an active role in trying to alleviate economic suffering in Gaza, has put all the blame on Israel’s occupation without condemning Hamas’s violence. “Israel alone bears the responsibility for the current escalation due to its ongoing violations of the rights of the Palestinian people, the latest of which being the repeated raids on al-Aqsa Mosque under the protection of the Israeli police,” a foreign ministry statement read.
Saudi Arabia, which has been negotiating with the U.S. and Israel over the terms of a normalization accord, has responded similarly. The Saudi foreign ministry on Oct. 7 demanded an “immediate cessation of violence” and said that officials in Riyadh were “following the unprecedented developments between a number of Palestinian factions and Israel occupation forces which has led to a high level of violence on a number of fronts.” Saudi Crown Prince and de facto ruler Mohammad bin Salman reinforced the call for a cease-fire in a meeting with Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Oct. 15.
The Biden administration is said to have been disappointed in Riyadh’s insistence that the crisis could have been avoided had the Saudi-proposed 2002 Arab Peace Initiative ever been implemented. The effort to convince Riyadh to recognize Israel is also likely moribund for the foreseeable future as bin Salman reckons with Arab and Muslim anger at the massive Israeli retaliation against Gaza. Indeed, it was telling that the first phone call between the Saudi leader and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi since Saudi Arabia and Iran normalized relations in March took place in the aftermath of the new fighting between Hamas and Israel. One reason Riyadh has sought to patch up relations with Tehran is to avoid becoming collateral damage in the event of conflict between Israel and Iran or the U.S. and Iran. The Aramco attacks of September 2019, in which Saudi oil facilities were hit by Iranian drones and rockets, did much to inform Saudi officials’ threat perceptions of Iran.
The UAE, which has also patched up relations with Iran, has shown more sympathy toward Israel. A key signatory of the 2020 Abraham Accords, Abu Dhabi issued a statement on Oct. 8 which emphasized that “attacks by Hamas against Israeli towns and villages near the Gaza Strip, including the firing of thousands of rockets at population centers, are a serious and grave escalation” and condemned Hamas for abducting Israeli civilians as hostages.
Domestic politics ensure that fundamental differences between most of these U.S.-friendly Arab states and Washington will remain in terms of assessing the root causes of the bloodshed. However, that does not preclude cooperation on immediate issues such as securing the release of Hamas hostages and Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. The U.S. has also asked Arab countries to help assist Palestinians displaced by Israel’s massive retaliation.
Securing such assistance was a main priority of Blinken’s quick tour of Arab capitals during shuttle diplomacy that began in Israel last week. In Doha on Oct. 13, Blinken met with the Emir of Qatar and praised the gas-wealthy country for its efforts to secure the release of hostages held in Gaza. It remains to be seen if Hamas’s brutal assault will prompt the Biden administration to put pressure on Qatar to expel the Hamas leadership from Doha. For now, the White House continues to value Qatar’s role as a diplomatic bridge to Hamas. Indeed, Doha has a long track record of facilitating backchannel talks between the U.S. and various actors including Iran and the Taliban, and the Qataris are likely to invest significant diplomatic energy into playing such a role in the unprecedented new crisis.
As a wealthy and comparatively faraway state, Qatar has much less to lose than Egypt, the only Arab country that shares a land border with Gaza. With President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi seeking a third term at the end of this year, he is resisting an influx of desperate Gazans into Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, fearing that would exacerbate instability in a country already facing major economic problems and popular discontent.
Despite close ties to Washington, Sisi took a hard pro-Palestinian line in his meeting with Blinken on Oct. 15. He told Washington’s chief diplomat that Hamas’ violence resulted from a lack of progress in achieving a political solution to the Palestinian question and lectured Blinken about the need to avoid “collective punishment.”
Egypt has played a crucial role in the past brokering Israel-Hamas cease-fires and the Biden administration will most likely need to work with Cairo to end this round of fighting as well. It is already asking Egypt to open its Rafah border to allow some 500 Palestinians who are U.S. citizens to flee the intensifying conflict and to allow humanitarian aid to enter the besieged enclave. Now and when the fighting ends, the U.S. will need to work not only with Egypt but all regional players with stakes in the outcome of this horrific conflict, as well as the wider international community.
Giorgio Cafiero is the CEO of Gulf State Analytics, a Washington, DC-based geopolitical risk consultancy, and an adjunct fellow at the American Security Project.
Can Arab States Help De-escalate the Israel-Gaza Crisis?
By Giorgio Cafiero
Middle East & North Africa
As Israel prepares a full-scale ground invasion of Gaza in response to Hamas’s surprise attack out of Gaza on Oct. 7, Arab states in the region are worried about destabilizing effects across the Middle East. In particular, they fear more involvement by Iran and its regional partners which could escalate into an overt war between Israel and Iran with massive collateral damage to Arab countries that have recognized Israel or flirted with normalization.
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Egypt are seeking ways to de-escalate the situation but so far, they have failed to convince Israel to halt its bombing of civilians in Gaza or its siege of the coastal territory. Nonetheless, there is still a productive role that these Arab allies and partners of the U.S. can play as mediators and diplomatic backchannels when it comes to securing the release of hostages and prisoners held by both sides as well as negotiating an ultimate cease-fire and even helping to create an alternative political leadership for Gaza
The Biden administration has adopted a policy of holding Israel close in public and not second-guessing its harsh response to the Hamas attacks. As the Huffington Post reported on Oct. 13, the State Department has been calling on U.S. diplomats to avoid three phrases: “de-escalation/ceasefire,” “end to violence/bloodshed” and “restoring calm.”
Nonetheless, the U.S. reportedly pushed Israel into resuming the water supply to southern Gaza, which, according to White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, is in line with the White House’s efforts aimed at ensuring that “innocent Palestinians get access to those basic necessities and are protected from bombardment.” Additionally on Oct. 15, Biden appointed veteran U.S. diplomat David Satterfield, a former U.S. ambassador to Turkey, as Special Envoy for Middle East Humanitarian Issues. Satterfield will lead U.S. diplomacy toward alleviating Gaza’s humanitarian crisis in coordination with regional partners and the United Nations.
Most Arab states see de-escalation as the only sane path forward and believe that more violence will only breed more bloodshed and hatred. High-ranking Qatari and Emirati officials have been on the phone with statesmen in the region and across the world to discuss the violence, while seeking to rally the international community to push the parties toward de-escalation.
Even those Arab countries that have normalized relations with Israel or flirted with normalization like Saudi Arabia disagree with Washington about the root cause of the violence. While President Biden and other U.S. officials engage in Manichean good-versus-evil rhetoric, policymakers in Arab countries, even those which have long histories of problems with Hamas, generally see the prolonged Israeli occupation of Gaza, East Jerusalem, and the West Bank as the heart of the fighting. That is certainly the view of their populations who have turned out en masse in pro-Palestinian solidarity demonstrations, like those in pro-Western countries like Bahrain and Jordan on Oct. 13.
Qatar, which provides sanctuary for Hamas leaders and has taken an active role in trying to alleviate economic suffering in Gaza, has put all the blame on Israel’s occupation without condemning Hamas’s violence. “Israel alone bears the responsibility for the current escalation due to its ongoing violations of the rights of the Palestinian people, the latest of which being the repeated raids on al-Aqsa Mosque under the protection of the Israeli police,” a foreign ministry statement read.
Saudi Arabia, which has been negotiating with the U.S. and Israel over the terms of a normalization accord, has responded similarly. The Saudi foreign ministry on Oct. 7 demanded an “immediate cessation of violence” and said that officials in Riyadh were “following the unprecedented developments between a number of Palestinian factions and Israel occupation forces which has led to a high level of violence on a number of fronts.” Saudi Crown Prince and de facto ruler Mohammad bin Salman reinforced the call for a cease-fire in a meeting with Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Oct. 15.
The Biden administration is said to have been disappointed in Riyadh’s insistence that the crisis could have been avoided had the Saudi-proposed 2002 Arab Peace Initiative ever been implemented. The effort to convince Riyadh to recognize Israel is also likely moribund for the foreseeable future as bin Salman reckons with Arab and Muslim anger at the massive Israeli retaliation against Gaza. Indeed, it was telling that the first phone call between the Saudi leader and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi since Saudi Arabia and Iran normalized relations in March took place in the aftermath of the new fighting between Hamas and Israel. One reason Riyadh has sought to patch up relations with Tehran is to avoid becoming collateral damage in the event of conflict between Israel and Iran or the U.S. and Iran. The Aramco attacks of September 2019, in which Saudi oil facilities were hit by Iranian drones and rockets, did much to inform Saudi officials’ threat perceptions of Iran.
The UAE, which has also patched up relations with Iran, has shown more sympathy toward Israel. A key signatory of the 2020 Abraham Accords, Abu Dhabi issued a statement on Oct. 8 which emphasized that “attacks by Hamas against Israeli towns and villages near the Gaza Strip, including the firing of thousands of rockets at population centers, are a serious and grave escalation” and condemned Hamas for abducting Israeli civilians as hostages.
Domestic politics ensure that fundamental differences between most of these U.S.-friendly Arab states and Washington will remain in terms of assessing the root causes of the bloodshed. However, that does not preclude cooperation on immediate issues such as securing the release of Hamas hostages and Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. The U.S. has also asked Arab countries to help assist Palestinians displaced by Israel’s massive retaliation.
Securing such assistance was a main priority of Blinken’s quick tour of Arab capitals during shuttle diplomacy that began in Israel last week. In Doha on Oct. 13, Blinken met with the Emir of Qatar and praised the gas-wealthy country for its efforts to secure the release of hostages held in Gaza. It remains to be seen if Hamas’s brutal assault will prompt the Biden administration to put pressure on Qatar to expel the Hamas leadership from Doha. For now, the White House continues to value Qatar’s role as a diplomatic bridge to Hamas. Indeed, Doha has a long track record of facilitating backchannel talks between the U.S. and various actors including Iran and the Taliban, and the Qataris are likely to invest significant diplomatic energy into playing such a role in the unprecedented new crisis.
As a wealthy and comparatively faraway state, Qatar has much less to lose than Egypt, the only Arab country that shares a land border with Gaza. With President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi seeking a third term at the end of this year, he is resisting an influx of desperate Gazans into Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, fearing that would exacerbate instability in a country already facing major economic problems and popular discontent.
Despite close ties to Washington, Sisi took a hard pro-Palestinian line in his meeting with Blinken on Oct. 15. He told Washington’s chief diplomat that Hamas’ violence resulted from a lack of progress in achieving a political solution to the Palestinian question and lectured Blinken about the need to avoid “collective punishment.”
Egypt has played a crucial role in the past brokering Israel-Hamas cease-fires and the Biden administration will most likely need to work with Cairo to end this round of fighting as well. It is already asking Egypt to open its Rafah border to allow some 500 Palestinians who are U.S. citizens to flee the intensifying conflict and to allow humanitarian aid to enter the besieged enclave. Now and when the fighting ends, the U.S. will need to work not only with Egypt but all regional players with stakes in the outcome of this horrific conflict, as well as the wider international community.
Giorgio Cafiero is the CEO of Gulf State Analytics, a Washington, DC-based geopolitical risk consultancy, and an adjunct fellow at the American Security Project.
Recent & Related