Compounding Challenges
Just as the Europeans are realizing how space-reliant Europe has become for its security and the well-being of its society and economy, Europe faces new challenges endangering its “freedom of use” of outer space. Irresponsible actions, with the potential to cause unpredictable collateral effects or even catastrophic events in orbit, are becoming a fact of life (e.g., direct-ascent anti-satellite missile tests, proximity maneuvers, jamming, etc.). Some state and nonstate actors are tempted to exploit the “grey zone” in space, pursuing ambiguous actions that are both difficult to track, detect, and attribute (interpretation dilemma) and limit the thresholds for possible responses (response dilemma). These dynamics create a potential impunity gap — because irresponsible behaviors result in little or no consequences. These developments raise unprecedented questions of escalation management and challenges for the protection and defense of space assets.
In parallel, technological and industrial disruptions have rapidly increased the number of satellites in orbit; as a result, the Earth’s most valued orbits have been littered with space debris — spent rocket stages, old satellites, and fragments created by missile strikes and collisions. This crowding of orbits undermines both European security interests and the long-term sustainability of space, giving rise to new tensions.
This evolution also challenges Europe’s ability to adapt its way of doing business in space. The greatest caution will be required to confront the coming “scissor” effect between, on the one hand, the risk of lagging even further behind major actors that are accelerating their space efforts, and, on the other, the risk of newcomers, including nonstate actors, taking advantage of the lower entry barriers to catch up or even bypass Europe in space.
These trends are reinforced by the absence of a shared understanding of responsible space behaviors, with serious implications for miscalculations and overreactions. More than ever before, space security is shifting from a mostly bilateral arms control challenge to a multi-stakeholder conflict-prevention issue. In this context, the perennial question of the “prevention of an arms race in outer space” (PAROS) — which has been the focus of multilateral discussions in the U.N. since 1981 — must now evolve to encompass the prevention of conflicts in outer space.
Staying Relevant
If Europe wants to remain relevant in an era of strategic competition and transformation, it should update its strategic software — that is, raise awareness about the strategic nature of space and foster a shared understanding on the need to address challenges in the domain. Unlike other major actors, Europe’s space efforts have always been hampered by both a chronic lack of investment in security and defense issues, as well as limited and selective cooperation among European countries, especially compared to the path chosen on the civil side. This situation stems from the fact that European states have held different views on the level of ambition and action required on space in the defense field. The emergence of the European Union (EU) as a major actor in space policy with assets of its own (e.g. Galileo, Copernicus), and a growing awareness about threats and opportunities—following in the footsteps of France’s Space Defence Strategy and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)’s declaration of space as an operational domain in 2019 — have helped change this state of play.
A paradigm shift is now underway, as reflected in the EU’s development of its very first space strategy for security and defense. This process, initiated in mid-2021, and formally endorsed in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, is coming to a close, with EU leaders expected to adopt the plan proposed in March 2023 by the European Commission and the European External Action Service, thus helping to lay down a comprehensive shared European vision and ambition for security and defense in space.
As a result, the Europeans are developing a common strategic culture on the challenges pertaining to space as a “contested” domain and on the efforts needed to achieve greater responsiveness, security, and resilience. The Europeans are also driving to further leverage the opportunities and benefits space can offer, and to strengthen and improve their integration of security and defense interests in cooperation with the United States and other major partners. Though the road to success will be difficult, there is reason to be optimistic: the EU’s ambitious satellite constellation program to establish secure connectivity, known as IRIS, was put on the agenda in record speed. This initiative, which aims to secure Europe’s place in space by 2027 and ensure it remains a player in the ongoing “race for resilience,” is a testament to Europe’s new level of awareness, urgency, and maturity in addressing critical space issues.
Closing the “Trust Gap”
Alongside these efforts, Europe should also continue to take an active stance at the international level, working with its partners to strengthen the stability, security, safety, and sustainability of space. It should do so without naivety, but with the awareness that current geopolitical tensions leave little room for dialogue, consensus, and reciprocity. Trust in particular — a necessary precondition for progress — is severely lacking. Europe should make closing this “trust gap” its top priority.
The past few years have not been short of initiatives to address space security, but those efforts have suffered from a lack of trust among states. The most recent example is the move to address space security through norms of responsible behavior. Though this effort has gained considerable momentum, including the establishment of a dedicated U.N. Open-Ended Working Group with a two-year mandate, the group was unable to reach a final agreement due to Russian intransigence. A follow-on to continue discussion is on the table. Meanwhile, a Group of Governmental Experts on further practical measures for PAROS is to be convened under Russian leadership in 2023-2024. A similar initiative in 2018-2019 was unsuccessful, however, suggesting this new group is unlikely to produce meaningful results in an environment that has become even less trustful than before.
Closing the “trust gap” nevertheless remains an urgent task. As a first step, Europe should engage countries in a sustained way, facilitating exchanges of ideas on space security issues. Europe is well placed to put this project on the agenda, considering it is well known for communicating its activities, policies, and doctrines in a transparent way. Its commitment to effective multilateralism is also clearly shown in the success of the Hague Code of Conduct (HCoC), as well as its commitment to responsible space behaviors, as 27 EU member states have voluntarily committed to not conduct destructive direct-ascent anti-satellite missile tests. The Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space has achieved some success, but it still works under a limited mandate. Europe might want to consider pushing for the creation under the U.N. of a permanent dedicated forum on space security, operating on consensus to help build up long-term momentum, in an environment free from time-sensitive deliverables and obstruction strategies.
Dr Guilhem Penent is a space advisor at the French Ministry for the Armed Forces. The opinions expressed in this brief are solely those of the author.
A European Perspective on Space in an Era of Strategic Competition and Transformation
By Guilhem Penent
Grand Strategy
Today’s increasingly unstable and unpredictable space environment challenges Europe’s existing space policy paradigm, requiring European countries to adapt to growing space security threats and new dilemmas, ranging from “grey-zone” activities to escalation management and the protection and defense of space assets. To remain relevant, Europeans should adapt their current approach to the space domain. Specifically, they should develop a common understanding of the challenges they are facing, better coordinate their space activities, protect their interests, and work to close the “trust gap,” continuing to engage international partners in support of effective multilateralism.
Compounding Challenges
Just as the Europeans are realizing how space-reliant Europe has become for its security and the well-being of its society and economy, Europe faces new challenges endangering its “freedom of use” of outer space. Irresponsible actions, with the potential to cause unpredictable collateral effects or even catastrophic events in orbit, are becoming a fact of life (e.g., direct-ascent anti-satellite missile tests, proximity maneuvers, jamming, etc.). Some state and nonstate actors are tempted to exploit the “grey zone” in space, pursuing ambiguous actions that are both difficult to track, detect, and attribute (interpretation dilemma) and limit the thresholds for possible responses (response dilemma). These dynamics create a potential impunity gap — because irresponsible behaviors result in little or no consequences. These developments raise unprecedented questions of escalation management and challenges for the protection and defense of space assets.
In parallel, technological and industrial disruptions have rapidly increased the number of satellites in orbit; as a result, the Earth’s most valued orbits have been littered with space debris — spent rocket stages, old satellites, and fragments created by missile strikes and collisions. This crowding of orbits undermines both European security interests and the long-term sustainability of space, giving rise to new tensions.
This evolution also challenges Europe’s ability to adapt its way of doing business in space. The greatest caution will be required to confront the coming “scissor” effect between, on the one hand, the risk of lagging even further behind major actors that are accelerating their space efforts, and, on the other, the risk of newcomers, including nonstate actors, taking advantage of the lower entry barriers to catch up or even bypass Europe in space.
These trends are reinforced by the absence of a shared understanding of responsible space behaviors, with serious implications for miscalculations and overreactions. More than ever before, space security is shifting from a mostly bilateral arms control challenge to a multi-stakeholder conflict-prevention issue. In this context, the perennial question of the “prevention of an arms race in outer space” (PAROS) — which has been the focus of multilateral discussions in the U.N. since 1981 — must now evolve to encompass the prevention of conflicts in outer space.
Staying Relevant
If Europe wants to remain relevant in an era of strategic competition and transformation, it should update its strategic software — that is, raise awareness about the strategic nature of space and foster a shared understanding on the need to address challenges in the domain. Unlike other major actors, Europe’s space efforts have always been hampered by both a chronic lack of investment in security and defense issues, as well as limited and selective cooperation among European countries, especially compared to the path chosen on the civil side. This situation stems from the fact that European states have held different views on the level of ambition and action required on space in the defense field. The emergence of the European Union (EU) as a major actor in space policy with assets of its own (e.g. Galileo, Copernicus), and a growing awareness about threats and opportunities—following in the footsteps of France’s Space Defence Strategy and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)’s declaration of space as an operational domain in 2019 — have helped change this state of play.
A paradigm shift is now underway, as reflected in the EU’s development of its very first space strategy for security and defense. This process, initiated in mid-2021, and formally endorsed in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, is coming to a close, with EU leaders expected to adopt the plan proposed in March 2023 by the European Commission and the European External Action Service, thus helping to lay down a comprehensive shared European vision and ambition for security and defense in space.
As a result, the Europeans are developing a common strategic culture on the challenges pertaining to space as a “contested” domain and on the efforts needed to achieve greater responsiveness, security, and resilience. The Europeans are also driving to further leverage the opportunities and benefits space can offer, and to strengthen and improve their integration of security and defense interests in cooperation with the United States and other major partners. Though the road to success will be difficult, there is reason to be optimistic: the EU’s ambitious satellite constellation program to establish secure connectivity, known as IRIS, was put on the agenda in record speed. This initiative, which aims to secure Europe’s place in space by 2027 and ensure it remains a player in the ongoing “race for resilience,” is a testament to Europe’s new level of awareness, urgency, and maturity in addressing critical space issues.
Closing the “Trust Gap”
Alongside these efforts, Europe should also continue to take an active stance at the international level, working with its partners to strengthen the stability, security, safety, and sustainability of space. It should do so without naivety, but with the awareness that current geopolitical tensions leave little room for dialogue, consensus, and reciprocity. Trust in particular — a necessary precondition for progress — is severely lacking. Europe should make closing this “trust gap” its top priority.
The past few years have not been short of initiatives to address space security, but those efforts have suffered from a lack of trust among states. The most recent example is the move to address space security through norms of responsible behavior. Though this effort has gained considerable momentum, including the establishment of a dedicated U.N. Open-Ended Working Group with a two-year mandate, the group was unable to reach a final agreement due to Russian intransigence. A follow-on to continue discussion is on the table. Meanwhile, a Group of Governmental Experts on further practical measures for PAROS is to be convened under Russian leadership in 2023-2024. A similar initiative in 2018-2019 was unsuccessful, however, suggesting this new group is unlikely to produce meaningful results in an environment that has become even less trustful than before.
Closing the “trust gap” nevertheless remains an urgent task. As a first step, Europe should engage countries in a sustained way, facilitating exchanges of ideas on space security issues. Europe is well placed to put this project on the agenda, considering it is well known for communicating its activities, policies, and doctrines in a transparent way. Its commitment to effective multilateralism is also clearly shown in the success of the Hague Code of Conduct (HCoC), as well as its commitment to responsible space behaviors, as 27 EU member states have voluntarily committed to not conduct destructive direct-ascent anti-satellite missile tests. The Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space has achieved some success, but it still works under a limited mandate. Europe might want to consider pushing for the creation under the U.N. of a permanent dedicated forum on space security, operating on consensus to help build up long-term momentum, in an environment free from time-sensitive deliverables and obstruction strategies.
Dr Guilhem Penent is a space advisor at the French Ministry for the Armed Forces. The opinions expressed in this brief are solely those of the author.
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