The Biden administration is confronting Russia’s naked aggression against Ukraine without direct military engagement, but a triple threat of inflation, starvation, and a coalition that is not sufficiently global promises trouble ahead for the United States and its position in a global order that is suddenly on an accelerated path to change. The commodities shock resulting from sanctions and war is amplifying an inflationary storm menacing the global economy, with the specter of mass starvation in the Global South, cost-of-living crises in the Global North, and the spreading risk of instability and illiberalism. Isolating Russia politically requires a truly global coalition of states prepared to sacrifice their interests to cut Russia off and deny it the runway to pursue the war, but three-quarters of the world’s population—including key rising and regional powers—are not willing to do so, undercutting the United States’ immediate interests and global position over the long-term. Washington needs to make hard choices now to blunt these consequences and deliver the decisive strategic setback to Russian President Vladimir Putin necessary to reinforce US global leadership.
Read the full paper at the Atlantic Council.
