Policymakers should be more realistic in their appraisals of the likelihood of success of strategies based on coercion, and limit coercive threats to instances in which US interests at stake are high. Policymakers should commit to assessing the true costs of failures of both deterrence and coercion, including their second- and third-order implications, up front. As the relative balance of international power is changing, coercion is becoming increasingly difficult. Therefore, policymakers should consider investing more in capabilities for deterrence, avoid confusing language and clearly communicate strategy to domestic and international audiences.

Read the full paper at the Atlantic Council.