The United States should intensify efforts to understand the scope of ambition of other states (particularly China and Russia), including increased peer-to-peer contact between governments, and at the Track Two level, as well as increased intelligence funding. The Biden administration should focus less on forward deployment and more on defensive contingencies; wherever possible, rely on partner and allied forces, rather than US troops, for forward presence. It should engage in reassurance measures with China and Russia; draw from the lessons of the Cold War to develop joint confidence-building measures (CBMs) with peer adversaries. Policymakers should initiate a policy process designed to more clearly define key US priorities and red lines, and to explore places where mutually acceptable revision of international institutions or norms might reduce tensions and defuse future conflicts.

Read the full publication at the Atlantic Council.