Richard Cincotta

Demographer in Residence

Dr. Richard Cincotta is a political demographer whose research focuses on the demographic transition and its relationships to political, economic and environmental change. His publications on these topics have appeared in Foreign Policy, Nature and Science magazines. He is an Intelligence Community Associate and, in this capacity, has contributed to the National Intelligence Council's two most recent global futuring exercise, Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds (2012), and Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World (2008) and the Geneva Declaration Secretariat's Global Burden of Armed Violence (2008). 

Selected Publications

Cincotta, R.P.  2012. "Demography: A Development Perspective." Pages 291-310, in: Security and Development in Global Politics: A Critical Comparison, Spear, J. and P.D. Williams, eds.  Georgetown University Press, Washington, DC.

Cincotta, R.P. and J. Doces. 2012. "The Age-structural Maturity Thesis: the Youth Bulge's Influence on the Advent and Stability of Liberal Democracy" Pages 98-116 in: Political Demography: How Population Changes Are Reshaping International Security and National Politics, edited by J.A. Goldstone, Eric Kaufmann and Monica Duffy Toft. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Cincotta, R. 2011. "Socioeconomic Studies", In: Seismic Shift: Understanding Change in the Middle East (Laipson, E., ed.). Washington, DC: Stimson Center, pp. 29-36.  

Cincotta, R.P. 2011. "Sub-Saharan Africa's Reluctant Fertility Transition." Current History, May: 184-189.

Cincotta, R.P. 2011. "The Biological Diversity that is Humanly Possible: Three Models Relevant to Human Population's Relationship with Native Species," In (Cincotta, R.P. and L.J. Gorenflo, eds.) Human Population: Its Influences on Biological Diversity, Ecological Studies Series, Vol. 214. Berlin: Springer-Verlag.

Cincotta, R.P. and L.J. Gorenflo, eds. 2011.  Human Population: Its Influences on Biological Diversity, Ecological Studies Series. Berlin: Springer-Verlag.

Cincotta, R.P. and E. Kaufmann. 2010. "Uncompromising Demography in a Promised Land." NIC 2010-05. Washington, DC: National Intelligence Council.

Cincotta, R.P. 2010. "Iran's Demography to 2025: Middle East Tiger or Shi'ia Hawk?" NIC 2010-06. Washington, DC: National Intelligence Council.

Cincotta, R.P. 2009. "Demographic Challenges to the State," In (Tschirgi, N., Lund, M.S., and Mancini, F., eds.) Security & Development: Searching for Critical Connections, pp. 77-98. International Peace Institute & Lynne Reiner, New York.

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