Dr. Richard Cincotta is a political demographer whose research focuses on the demographic transition and human migration, and their relationships to political, economic, and environmental change. His publications on these topics have appeared in Foreign Policy, Nature, and Science magazines. He contributed to the National Intelligence Council's most recent global futuring exercise, Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World (2009) and the Geneva Declaration Secretariat's Global Burden of Armed Violence (2008).

Selected Publications

Cincotta, R.P.  2011.  "Sub-Saharan Africa's Reluctant Fertility Transition." Current History, May.  

Cincotta, R.P. and L.J. Gorenflo, eds. 2011. Human Population: Its Influences on Biological Diversity, Ecological Studies Series, Vol. 214. Berlin: Springer-Verlag.  

Cincotta, R.P. 2011. "The Biological Diversity that is Humanly Possible: Three Models Relevant to Human Population's Relationship with Native Species," In (Cincotta, R.P. and L.J. Gorenflo, eds) Human Population: Its Influences on Biological Diversity, Ecological Studies Series, Vol. 214. Berlin: Springer-Verlag.

Cincotta, R.P. and E. Kaufmann. 2010. "Uncompromising Demography in a Promised Land." NIC 2010-05. Washington, DC: National Intelligence Council. 

Cincotta, R.P. 2010. "Iran's Demography to 2025: Middle East Tiger or Shi'ia Hawk?" NIC 2010-06. Washington, DC: National Intelligence Council.                                            

Cincotta, R.P. and J. Doces. [in press, 2011] "The Age-structural Maturity Thesis: the Youth Bulge's Influence on the Advent and Stability of Liberal Democracy" Political Demography: identity, conflict and institutions, edited by J. A. Goldstone, Eric Kaufmann and Monica Duffy Toft. Basingstoke and New York: Palgrave-MacMillan.

Cincotta, R.P. and L.J. Gorenflo, eds. [in press, scheduled for 2011] Human Population: Its Influences on Biological Diversity, Ecological Studies Series. Berlin: Springer-Verlag. 

Cincotta, R.P. 2009. "Demographic Challenges to the State," In (Tschirgi, N., Lund, M.S., and Mancini, F., eds.) Security & Development: Searching for Critical Connections, pp. 77-98. International Peace Institute & Lynne Reiner, New York.                                              

Cincotta, R.P. 2009 (Nov. 16). Can Demography Save Afghanistan? Foreign Policy Magazine Web Exclusive. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/11/16/could_demography_save_afghanistan                                        

Cincotta, R.P. 2009 (June 25). "Iran's Chinese Future."  Foreign Policy Magazine Web Exclusives: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/06/25/irans_chinese_future?new  (reprinted in Japan Newsweek).

Cincotta, R.P. and E. Kaufmann. 2009 (May 15).  "The Changing Face of Israel." Foreign Policy Magazine Web Exclusives: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=4956 ; Posted 1 June 2009. 

Cincotta, R.P. and L. Hummel. 2009. "Africa's Youthful Age Structure and Its Security Implications." In (Richmond Krackowa, A. and Hummel, L., eds) Africa's Strategic Geography. Carlisle, PA: US Army War College & US Military Academy, pp. 257-282. http://www.dean.usma.edu/departments/geo/Publications/Understanding%20Africa.pdf 

Contributor to: National Intelligence Council (U.S.). 2009. Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World. Washington, DC: National Intelligence Council (http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2025_project.html).   

Cincotta, R.P. 2008/09. "Half a Chance: Youth Bulges and Transitions to Liberal Democracy," Environmental Change and Security Project Report, 13: 10-18. Also available at: http://www.wilsoncenter.org/topics/pubs/ECSPReport13_Cincotta.pdf

Cincotta, R.P. 2008. "How Democracies Grow Up." Foreign Policy: March/April, 80-82 (plus supplementary map and graph online). 

Contributor to:  Small Arms Survey. Global Burden of Armed Conflict. 2008. Geneva: Geneva Declaration Secretariat. http://www.genevadeclaration.org/fileadmin/docs/Global-Burden-of-Armed-Violence-full-report.pdf

Cincotta, R.P. and E. Leahy. 2006/2007. "Population Age Structure and the Risk of Civil Conflict: a Metric." Environment Change & Security Project Report, 12: 55-58.  Also at:  http://www.wilsoncenter.org/topics/pubs/PopAgeStructures&CivilConflict12.pdf

Cincotta, R.P. 2006. "From Ultrasound to Insurgency" (a review of Hudson and den Boer's Bare Branches), Environmental Change and Security Project Report, 11: 70-73.  http://www.wilsoncenter.org/topics/pubs/New_Publications.pdf

Cincotta, R.P. 2005. "Génération Guerre." Opinion/International Section, p. 22 in La Libre Belgique. Brussels, Jan. 29, 2005.

Mastny, L. and R.P. Cincotta. 2005. "Examining the Connections Between Population and Security," Pages 22-39, in: State of the World, 2005, New York: W.W. Norton.                   

Cincotta, R.P. 2004. "Demographic Security Comes of Age," Environmental Change and Security Project Report, 10: 24-29. http://www.wilsoncenter.org/topics/pubs/ecspr10_C-cincotta.pdf

Cincotta, R.P., R. Engelman. "The Demographics of Discord." Opinion. International Herald Tribune. March 2, 2004.