With South Korea’s legislative elections fast approaching on April 10, the country is gearing up for a tense vote that may determine the efficacy of the Yoon Suk Yeol administration for the remaining three years of its term. South Korea’s National Assembly has 300 seats, and all of them are at stake in this election: 699 candidates have registered for the 254 directly elected seats; 253 candidates are competing for the remaining 46 proportional representation seats.
What’s at Stake?
Members serve four-year terms in the National Assembly. While not a presidential election, this legislative vote will effectively help or hinder the remaining three years of the Yoon government, depending on its outcome.1For analysis of the upcoming South Korean general elections, see J. James Kim, “Contemplating Possible Outcomes and Implications of the South Korean General Election,” 38 North, March 27, 2024, https://www.38north.org/2024/03/contemplating-possible-outcomes-and-implications-of-the-south-korean-general-election/.
With the liberal main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DP) currently holding an absolute majority of the National Assembly with 180 seats, pressure is on the conservative ruling People Power Party (PPP) to win back as many seats as possible. This election will also function as a half-term assessment of the Yoon administration, which has been facing falling approval ratings in the weeks leading up to the election. A PPP failure in this general election would hamper Yoon’s momentum moving forward with his domestic and foreign policy agenda, and another opposition-controlled parliament would present challenges to both Yoon in the remaining three years of his presidency and the PPP in seeing another conservative president elected in 2027.
Why Does This Matter?
The Yoon administration has had a turbulent first two years in office after taking back power from the DP in the 2022 presidential election with a narrow victory of just a 0.8 percent margin. Yoon is facing several divisive domestic issues, including, but not limited to: allegations of corruption; the rising influence of chaebol (conglomerates) in politics; stiff competition in the housing market and inflation; the low birth rate; gender inequality; a rise in defamation cases against local press; and Yoon’s continued push for medical reform despite strong opposition from doctors.
Foreign policy issues have limited impact—if that even—on South Korean parliamentary elections; likewise, foreign policy remains low on this election’s agenda. If the PPP fails to win at least half the seats, however, Yoon could face an uphill battle in forging ahead with his agenda, including foreign policy. Yoon has staunchly supported a strong alliance with the United States and security cooperation with Japan, consistent with the conservative PPP’s position. Unlike his predecessor, Moon Jae-in of the DP, who opted to maintain strategic ambiguity with China, Yoon has taken a more critical stance on Beijing. The PPP leader recently criticized the DP for its “subservient” attitude toward China and asserted that Yoon’s strengthening of US-ROK relations was to regain momentum lost during the Moon administration.
Key Players
South Korea has two main parties: the conservative PPP and the liberal DP. The country has a robust history of political pluralism; parties and coalitions are highly flexible and dynamic, with mergers and the creation of new parties common practice during election cycles. The country utilizes a semi-mixed-member proportional representation system enacted in 2020. Under this system, voters cast two ballots: one for their local district and another for a political party. The proportion of votes received by each party is then calculated and used to allocate seats. This system is meant to better reflect support for smaller parties; however, it often results in blocs of “satellite parties” exploiting the rule and gaining seats for the two main factions.
Ruling Party: The People Power Party
The PPP is led by Han Dong-hoon, the first justice minister under the Yoon administration who stepped down to take over as interim PPP chairman. When he assumed leadership in December 2023, Han vowed to regain a PPP majority in the National Assembly. The PPP’s latest internal analysis, however, predicts only 90-100 seats for the party.2Party forecasts and polling data have not always been accurate indicators of election results. For more explanation on polling in South Korean general elections, see J. James Kim, “Contemplating Possible Outcomes and Implications of the South Korean General Election,” 38 North, March 27, 2024, https://www.38north.org/2024/03/contemplating-possible-outcomes-and-implications-of-the-south-korean-general-election/.
Main Opposition Party: The Democratic Party of Korea
The DP is currently led by Lee Jae-myung, who lost the 2022 presidential election against Yoon Suk Yeol.
Lee has been a vocal critic of Yoon, though his own political trajectory has been marred by ongoing scandals, including accusations of bribery while mayor of Seongnam and violating election laws during his 2021-2022 presidential campaign.
These controversies, along with a general disillusionment Lee and the direction of the DP, may contribute to a loss of votes to Cho Kuk’s new party, which shares the liberal platform with the DP. The DP forecasts 110 seats or more in the election, according to its own polling analysis.
The National Innovation Party
The third most popular party in this election is the National Innovation Party, led by former Justice Minister Cho Kuk under the Moon Jae-in administration. Despite the party’s steadily rising popularity, its 25 candidates are only competing for proportional representation seats.
Cho’s career has also been fraught with controversies, including the falsification of his children’s academic achievements, which led to his early resignation in 2019.
Notable Minor Parties
Among the minor parties, the New Reform Party, New Future Party and Green-Justice Party have consistently received the highest approval ratings according to Gallup polls, hovering around one to three percent.
Former PPP Chairman Lee Jun-seok launched the New Reform Party in February 2024, aiming to win 20-30 seats in the upcoming election, despite struggling with internal divisions and lagging popular support.
Former DP leader and Prime Minister Lee Nak-yon founded the New Future Party in February 2024 and merged with the New Reform Party under the big tent Reform Party. However, just 11 days later, Lee retracted the decision amid leadership clashes.
The Justice Party formed an electoral coalition with Green Party Korea as the Green-Justice Party, promoting regional solidarity with other DP-aligned parties.
Current Outlook
South Korea’s campaign period is only 14 days long. Election campaigns kicked off on March 28, with public debates expected to take place through April 4. Based on their own analyses, the DP and PPP are forecasted to win 110 and 82 electoral districts, respectively. Recent polling of voters by Gallup Korea shows that 37 percent of respondents voiced support for the PPP and 29 percent for the DP. While Cho Kuk’s National Innovation Party currently is the most popular third party at 12 percent, the New Reform Party and New Future Party struggle to gain voter support due to perceptions of unreliability and lack of compelling campaign promises.
Header image: Republic of Korea Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism, Korean Culture and Information Service, Korea.net, JEON HAN, https://flic.kr/p/mDWB2P
South Korea’s 2024 Legislative Election Primer
By Kaitlyn King • Natalia Slavney
Korean Peninsula
With South Korea’s legislative elections fast approaching on April 10, the country is gearing up for a tense vote that may determine the efficacy of the Yoon Suk Yeol administration for the remaining three years of its term. South Korea’s National Assembly has 300 seats, and all of them are at stake in this election: 699 candidates have registered for the 254 directly elected seats; 253 candidates are competing for the remaining 46 proportional representation seats.
What’s at Stake?
Members serve four-year terms in the National Assembly. While not a presidential election, this legislative vote will effectively help or hinder the remaining three years of the Yoon government, depending on its outcome.1For analysis of the upcoming South Korean general elections, see J. James Kim, “Contemplating Possible Outcomes and Implications of the South Korean General Election,” 38 North, March 27, 2024, https://www.38north.org/2024/03/contemplating-possible-outcomes-and-implications-of-the-south-korean-general-election/.
With the liberal main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DP) currently holding an absolute majority of the National Assembly with 180 seats, pressure is on the conservative ruling People Power Party (PPP) to win back as many seats as possible. This election will also function as a half-term assessment of the Yoon administration, which has been facing falling approval ratings in the weeks leading up to the election. A PPP failure in this general election would hamper Yoon’s momentum moving forward with his domestic and foreign policy agenda, and another opposition-controlled parliament would present challenges to both Yoon in the remaining three years of his presidency and the PPP in seeing another conservative president elected in 2027.
Why Does This Matter?
The Yoon administration has had a turbulent first two years in office after taking back power from the DP in the 2022 presidential election with a narrow victory of just a 0.8 percent margin. Yoon is facing several divisive domestic issues, including, but not limited to: allegations of corruption; the rising influence of chaebol (conglomerates) in politics; stiff competition in the housing market and inflation; the low birth rate; gender inequality; a rise in defamation cases against local press; and Yoon’s continued push for medical reform despite strong opposition from doctors.
Foreign policy issues have limited impact—if that even—on South Korean parliamentary elections; likewise, foreign policy remains low on this election’s agenda. If the PPP fails to win at least half the seats, however, Yoon could face an uphill battle in forging ahead with his agenda, including foreign policy. Yoon has staunchly supported a strong alliance with the United States and security cooperation with Japan, consistent with the conservative PPP’s position. Unlike his predecessor, Moon Jae-in of the DP, who opted to maintain strategic ambiguity with China, Yoon has taken a more critical stance on Beijing. The PPP leader recently criticized the DP for its “subservient” attitude toward China and asserted that Yoon’s strengthening of US-ROK relations was to regain momentum lost during the Moon administration.
Key Players
South Korea has two main parties: the conservative PPP and the liberal DP. The country has a robust history of political pluralism; parties and coalitions are highly flexible and dynamic, with mergers and the creation of new parties common practice during election cycles. The country utilizes a semi-mixed-member proportional representation system enacted in 2020. Under this system, voters cast two ballots: one for their local district and another for a political party. The proportion of votes received by each party is then calculated and used to allocate seats. This system is meant to better reflect support for smaller parties; however, it often results in blocs of “satellite parties” exploiting the rule and gaining seats for the two main factions.
Ruling Party: The People Power Party
Main Opposition Party: The Democratic Party of Korea
The National Innovation Party
Notable Minor Parties
Current Outlook
South Korea’s campaign period is only 14 days long. Election campaigns kicked off on March 28, with public debates expected to take place through April 4. Based on their own analyses, the DP and PPP are forecasted to win 110 and 82 electoral districts, respectively. Recent polling of voters by Gallup Korea shows that 37 percent of respondents voiced support for the PPP and 29 percent for the DP. While Cho Kuk’s National Innovation Party currently is the most popular third party at 12 percent, the New Reform Party and New Future Party struggle to gain voter support due to perceptions of unreliability and lack of compelling campaign promises.
Header image: Republic of Korea Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism, Korean Culture and Information Service, Korea.net, JEON HAN, https://flic.kr/p/mDWB2P
Notes
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