Nuclear Security News and Member Updates Roundup, June 2023

Dear Friends,

As the newsletter goes to publication, the mercenary Wagner Group’s June 24 advance on Moscow is over, but questions linger about the longer-term implications for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime and the stability of the nuclear armed state. The events leave us with much to ponder in the days ahead, in addition to the issues raised by the continued occupation of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant. With the destruction in early June of the dam that supports a reservoir vital to sustaining Zaporizhzhya’s cooling pond, fresh concerns about the safety and security of the plant, its staff, and surrounding area have emerged. Within this context, headlines on additional support for the IAEA’s mission in Ukraine, a new IAEA nuclear security tool, and focus on nuclear cybersecurity, as well as updates from INSF members on their work are all especially welcome.

Best wishes,

Christina

Interim Director, International Nuclear Security Forum

Join the conversation on Twitter: @INS_Forum

Updates

• The INSF Nuclear Security Policy Menu series features a new policy memo from Debra Decker, “Prepare for the Inevitable: Emerging Cyber Risks to Nuclear Facilities.” Read the memo.     

Nuclear Security News

Impact: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine

• Ukrainian Dam Is Destroyed; Nuclear Plant Lives in A ‘Grace Period’: “The Kakhovka Reservoir serves as the Zaporizhzhia plant’s ultimate heat sink, an essential safety function of removing the radioactive decay heat generated by the fuel inside the shutdown reactors and spent fuel pools. The plant has a cooling pond that pumps its water from the Kakhovka Reservoir. According to the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Mariano Grossi, the water level of the Kakhovka Reservoir was dropping … at a rate of 5 centimeters per hour, adding that ’water in the reservoir was at around 16.4 meters … If [it] drops below 12.7 meters, then it can no longer be pumped.’ This would theoretically leave operators with about three days to pump as much water as possible to fill up the pond. But local Ukrainian military officials estimated that the water level was dropping at the much higher rate of about 15 centimeters per hour; leaving only 24 hours for the operators to do so. Commenting on Twitter, Edwin Lyman, a nuclear safety expert at the Union of Concerned Scientists, described the situation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant as a ‘slow-motion disaster.’  ‘The impact on the plant is something we are going to see unfold over time,’ Lyman further explained to the Bulletin. ‘There is a grace period to address this problem, but it’s not infinite.’… In his statement, Grossi said that the pond was sufficient to provide water for cooling for several months, although he added the IAEA will confirm this information.”
• UN Concerned By ‘Discrepancy’ In Ukraine Nuclear Plant Water Levels After Dam Collapse: “The UN atomic watchdog has said it needs wider access around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant to check ‘a significant discrepancy’ in water level data at the breached Kakhovka dam used for cooling the plant’s reactors. International Atomic Energy Agency head Rafael Grossi, who is to visit the plant this week, said that measurements the agency received from the inlet of the plant showed that the dam’s water levels were stable for about a day over the weekend. ‘However, the height is reportedly continuing to fall elsewhere in the huge reservoir, causing a possible difference of about 2 metres,’ Grossi said in a statement. ‘The height of the water level is a key parameter for the continued operability of the water pumps.’”
• U.N. Nuclear Official Visits Zaporizhzhia Plant to Assess Safety: “Rafael Mariano Grossi, the director general of the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency, visited the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant after the Nova Kakhovka dam was destroyed last week, draining a reservoir that is a key source of water used to cool the plant’s reactors. In a series of video clips posted on Twitter shortly after his visit… Mr. Grossi could be seen standing in front of the cooling pond. ‘One of the most serious consequences of the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam has been the decrease in the level of water which is needed to cool the nuclear power plant behind me,’ he said, adding: ‘With the water that is here the plant can be kept safe for some time.’”
• Ukraine Spy Chief Accuses Russia of ‘Mining’ Cooling Pond At Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant: “Ukraine’s military intelligence chief accused Russia… of ‘mining’ the cooling pond used to keep the reactors cool at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Ukraine’s south. The six-reactor complex, Europe’s biggest nuclear plant, has been under occupation since shortly after Moscow’s forces invaded in February last year. ‘…Most terrifying is that the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant was additionally mined during that time… namely the cooling pond was mined,’ Kyrylo Budanov, head of the GUR agency, said on television, without providing evidence for his assertion.”
• Zelensky Says Russia Is Planning to Sabotage Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant: “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned… that Russian forces were preparing a ‘terrorist act’ at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, Europe’s largest atomic power station, as officials in Moscow said the head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency, Rafael Mariano Grossi, would travel to Russia to meet with nuclear authorities… Ukrainian ‘intelligence has received information that Russia is considering the scenario of a terrorist act at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant — a terrorist act with the release of radiation,’ Zelensky said in a video address released on social media. ‘They have prepared everything for this.’ Zelensky did not provide further details but said Ukraine would share ‘all the evidence’ with Kyiv’s international partners — ‘all of them.’ He also warned that ‘radiation knows no borders’ and ‘who it hits’ will depend on the ‘direction of the wind.’”
• What Would Happen if a Military Group Took Over Russia’s Nuclear Arsenal?: “When Russian mercenary leader and oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin suddenly launched his march on Moscow on Friday, top US officials should not have been surprised; US and Ukrainian intelligence had warned that such a move was possible. In the aftermath of Prigozhin’s abortive rebellion, however, experts within and outside the US government were quick to express worry about the fate of the Russian nuclear arsenal should the regime of Russian President Vladimir Putin ever be overthrown…the Washington Post quoted an unnamed US official who contended that there was ‘high concern’ in the run-up to Prigozhin’s short-lived rebellion about instability and the control of Russia’s nuclear arsenal among the intelligence community should Putin be ousted and a Russian ‘civil war’ erupt. If a mercenary group were able to seize power and gain control over some of Russian nuclear weapons, ‘the world [would] find itself in uncharted territory,’ Alexander Vershbow, a former NATO deputy secretary general and US ambassador to Russia, told the Bulletin. ‘It is doubtful that the ousted Putin regime would be able to withhold access to nuclear codes for very long, if at all.’”

International Architecture

• U.S. Remarks to the Conference on Disarmament on Prevention of Nuclear War Including All Related Aspects: “This year, the G7 Leader’s Hiroshima Vision … called for the immediate commencement of long overdue negotiations of an FMCT [Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty]. This is the next logical step for Agenda Item 2, and, as such, [the U.S. delegation]… welcome[s] the French Presidency’s discussion of the topic today. The G7 statement noted that 2023 will mark the 30th year since the consensual adoption of the UNGA [United Nations General Assembly] resolution calling for an FMCT – something that the Canadian delegate also pointed out. Thirty years is quite a long period of time. While an FMCT by itself cannot prevent nuclear war or arms racing altogether, it would impose significant constraints. A cap on the production of new fissile material for use in nuclear weapons would be welcomed as a positive step by the vast majority of CD and UN member states, as evidenced by the support for the annual UNGA resolution. The need to launch FMCT negotiations is especially urgent in today’s deteriorating security environment, as the process could mark a positive and hopeful development that could play a stabilizing role in reducing nuclear risks.”
• Addressing Cyber Threats to Ensure Nuclear Security and Safety: IAEA Conference on Computer Security Begins: “An international conference on computer security in the nuclear world opened at the IAEA headquarters in Vienna… to discuss effective security measures to protect against cyber-attacks on facilities handling nuclear or other radioactive material in an increasingly digitized world. ‘Our topic…  is of the utmost importance; nuclear activities are growing everywhere in the world and the challenges posed by the malicious use of digital tools is real and is growing,’ IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi told the opening session of the International Conference on Computer Security in a Nuclear World: Security for Safety…From 19 to 23 June, the presentations and discussions in plenary and technical sessions will cover eight thematic areas: State-level strategy and regulatory approaches; computer security programme implementation; computer security in supply chain management; implementation of computer security assurance activities; sustainability of computer security; human resources; international cooperation in computer security for a nuclear security regime; and computer security of emerging digital technologies for nuclear activities.”

Weapons, Materials, and Facilities

• The US Is Getting Its First New Nuclear Reactor in 40 Years: “The first new nuclear reactor built in the United States in more than 40 years is now up and running in Waynesboro, Georgia. After more than a decade of construction and spiraling costs, Plant Vogtle Unit Three, the first of two new reactors at the site, started producing power at its full capacity in May. It’s expected to come online this month after a final round of tests. The completion of the new reactors is a major milestone not just for the long-delayed project but for nuclear energy in the United States. The new units at Plant Vogtle were the first nuclear construction approved in decades and are the country’s only new reactors in progress.”
• Nuclear Security Agency Still in Early Stages of Weapons Cybersecurity, Watchdog Says: “The National Nuclear Security Administration is just starting to identify the systems that could pose a risk to the cybersecurity of the nation’s nuclear weapons, a government watchdog said. The U.S. Government Accountability Office…  said it found the NNSA and its contractors are still in the early stages of inventorying the operational technology systems used in the production of nuclear weapons and the IT systems used within those weapons. The agency is also in the early stages of assessing and mitigating the risks those systems might pose, the report said. The findings come after a September 2022 GAO report that found the agency didn’t have a cybersecurity risk management strategy for nuclear weapons IT systems. The new report focuses on the two areas where the most additional work was still needed: operational technologies and nuclear weapons IT.”
• Putin Says Russia Put Nuclear Bombs in Belarus as Warning to West: “Speaking at Russia’s flagship economic forum in St Petersburg, Putin said Russian tactical nuclear warheads had already been delivered to close ally Belarus, but stressed he saw no need for Russia to resort to nuclear weapons for now. ‘As you know we were negotiating with our ally, (Belarusian President (Alexander) Lukashenko), that we would move a part of these tactical nuclear weapons to the territory of Belarus – this has happened,’ said Putin. ‘The first nuclear warheads were delivered to the territory of Belarus. But only the first ones, the first part. But we will do this job completely by the end of the summer or by the end of the year.’ The move, Moscow’s first deployment of such warheads – shorter-range nuclear weapons that could potentially be used on the battlefield – outside Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union was intended as a warning to the West about arming and supporting Ukraine, the Russian leader said.”

Threats

• NEA Mission to Korea Highlights New Disruptive Technologies Entering the Nuclear Sector: “New disruptive technologies, such as artificial intelligence, 3D printing and advanced robotics, are making their way into the nuclear energy sector and are poised to create enormous changes. To address this topic, the Nuclear Energy Agency brought together academia, research organisations, industry and regulatory bodies, to discuss the potential opportunities and challenges posed by the adoption of these disruptive innovations in a workshop held during 16-17 May 2023 in Jeju, Korea…NEA Director-General Magwood discussed the approaching arrival of new disruptive technologies which could have huge impacts on the sector. ‘It is undeniable that disruptive technologies are reshaping sectors across various economies, and the nuclear sector is not immune to this transformation. These technologies carry the potential to enhance nuclear safety while improving the competitiveness of both, existing and new reactors, and accelerating the innovation cycle,’ said NEA Director-General Magwood. ‘This workshop is a great opportunity to foster constructive dialogue, align expectations among stakeholders and start building an environment that will allow the nuclear sector to get the most from this technological revolution,’ he added.”
• Two Energy Department Entities Breached as Part of Massive MOVEit Compromise: “Multiple federal agencies, including two Department of Energy entities, were victims of a cyberattack that resulted from a widespread vulnerability in MOVEit file transfer software, federal officials said… While it’s unclear who infiltrated the DOE agencies, a ransomware group known as Cl0P has used the flaw in the widely used software to attack hundreds of organizations in recent weeks, including universities, banks and major multinational corporations. The group publicized online that it has victimized ‘hundreds of companies’ and gave a June 14 deadline to negotiation a ransom price before they released stolen data…At a media briefing… [Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency] CISA Director Jen Easterly said that ‘we are not tracking significant impact on civilian .gov enterprise but are continuing to work with our partners on this.’ Additionally, she said, no federal agency has received extortion demands and no federal data has been leaked so far.”

Security Culture

• Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: “This report explores the nature and the use of risk analysis methods to assess the risks of nuclear war and nuclear terrorism, based on unclassified information. In doing so, the report explores the structure of risk analysis, the history and literature of risk assessment for nuclear war and nuclear terrorism, and approaches to understanding the threat of nuclear war and nuclear terrorism…New technologies, including cyber and space domains, offer technical means to reduce the risks of—but also to provide new routes toward—crisis and conflict. Whether the overall risks are increasing or decreasing with time is unclear, but the uncertainties in the risks associated with nuclear conflict have been increasing over recent decades because of the emergence and broad dissemination of powerful new technologies, as well as a shift toward multipolar nuclear competition.”
• Norway to Allocate $23 Million for Ukraine’s Nuclear Safety: “The Norwegian Foreign Ministry announced on June 20 that Oslo will provide 250 million Norwegian kroner ($23 million) for Ukraine’s nuclear safety and security. Around $9.3 million will be provided to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), whose experts are present at the Chornobyl site, the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, and three other operational nuclear plants in Ukraine…Oslo also increases the funding for nuclear safety and security cooperation with Ukraine by $14 million. The funding will be administered by the Norwegian Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (DSA) and will be used to reduce the risk of radiological incidents.”

New and Emerging Technologies

• IAEA Launches New Software to Assist Nuclear Security Operations: “The IAEA has launched a new software tool — the Mobile-Integrated Nuclear Security Network— that provides real time radiation data on operations at high-traffic areas for goods and passengers, such as seaports, land border crossings and airports, which require nuclear security measures to be in place. The Mobile-Integrated Nuclear Security Network (M-INSN) tool enables decision-makers, to use visual real-time radiation data, to make informed decisions to protect the public in case of a potential incident involving nuclear or other radioactive material. ‘The M-INSN is an excellent example of how science and technology can support countries to effectively, efficiently, and sustainably implement relevant nuclear security measures,’ said Elena Buglova, Director of the IAEA Division of Nuclear Security. ‘It can facilitate countries, especially those which lack sustainable means, to exercise command and control over nuclear security operations.’”

Member Organization Announcements and Updates

Arms Control Association

• ACA hosted its 51^st Annual Meeting on “Reducing Nuclear Threats in a Time of Peril” at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C. on June 2, 2023. Watch the webcast.

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

• Louis Reitmann and Sneha Nair published an op-ed about LGBTQ+ inclusion in nuclear security and disarmament on June 15, 2023. Read the article here.
• Steven Pifer published an article about U.S. and Russian relations in a post-New START global environment on June 13, 2023. Read the article here.

Global Nuclear Security Partners (GNSP)

• Nick Tomkinson gave an interview to Sky News in the UK talking about the situation at Zaporizhzhia. Watch the interview here.
• Nick Tomkinson gave an interview to Sky News in the UK talking about the destruction of the Kakhovka dam and the risks it poses to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Watch the interview here.

The Stimson Center

• Christina McAllister presented Stimson’s RadSecLEXIS project to the National Nuclear Security Administration’s Office of Radiological Security on June 12, 2023.
• Sneha Nair presented on “ICSANT: Civil society’s perspective and contribution” at UNODC’s Regional Workshop on Promoting the Universalization and Effective Implementation of the International Convention for the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism for South-East Asia in Bangkok from June 21-22, 2023.
• Sneha Nair attended an Exploratory Workshop on Risk Reduction Efficacy hosted by the Stanley Center for Peace and Security and RUSI in Potsdam from June 26-29, 2023.

James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey

• The James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies hosted its 2023 Women in STEM in Latin America and the Caribbean Symposium, in São Paulo, Brazil from June 19-23, 2023.

Nuclear Proliferation Prevention Project, University of Texas

• Alan J. Kuperman organized a letter from nonproliferation experts to the US Secretary of Energy that opposed a planned new research reactor fueled with weapons-grade uranium.  Read the letter here.

Nuclear Threat Initiative

• Nickolas Roth virtually presented on “ICSANT: Civil society’s perspective and contribution” at UNODC’s Regional Workshop on Promoting the Universalization and Effective Implementation of the International Convention for the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism for South-East Asia on June 22, 2023.

Odesa Center for Nonproliferation

• Ali Alkis presented “Nuclear Security During Armed Conflict” during the 5th Early Career Nuclear Strategists Workshop, organized by the NATO Defense College, Rome, between 21-23 June 2023.
• Ali Alkis presented “How Can Men Be Allies with Women in Nuclear Fields?” on June 21, 2023, during Nuclear Nonproliferation and Security for Women in STEM in Latin America and the Caribbean, organized by the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation.

Stanley Center for Peace and Security

• The Stanley Center for Peace and Security and RUSI cohosted an Exploratory Workshop on Risk Reduction Efficacy in Potsdam from June 26-29, 2023.

Third Way

• Third Way published a project consisting of a memo and a map highlighting bilateral civil nuclear cooperation agreements concluded by the U.S., Russia, and China on May 23, 2023. Read the publication.

Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation

• On May 26-27 2023, the VCDNP and the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies convened a high-level diplomatic workshop in Krems, Austria in support of the upcoming first Preparatory Committee (PrepCom) meeting for the eleventh Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. The workshop also provided an opportunity for the PrepCom Chair-designate Ambassador Jarmo Viinanen to update NPT States Parties on his consultations and hear the views from different state and group representatives on key issues. Read more here.
• A new VCDNP “Governing the Atom” brief focuses on the negotiation of the IAEA’s budget, its composition and its intricacies. The brief also provides a comparison of the allocation of funds towards the regular budget versus extrabudgetary funds over time, describes some niche aspects of the budget, such as what “shielding” is and what the consequences of late or non-payment are. The brief brings attention to the resource deficit faced by the IAEA and what is being done to mitigate that deficit. Read more here.
• VCDNP Senior Fellow Laura Rockwood and Research Associate Noah Mayhew presented in seven sessions during the meeting. In addition, Ms. Rockwood co-chaired an eighth session that focused on material out of regulatory control. Read more here.
• VCDNP Senior Fellow and then-High Representative for Disarmament Affairs Angela Kane discusses the Conference on the Establishment of a Middle East Zone Free of Nuclear Weapons and Other Weapons of Mass Destruction in a new paper published by UNIDIR. Read more here.

Individual Member Updates

• Artem Lazarev from the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) shared that on 30 May, UNODC contributed to the webinar “Strengthening Nuclear Security in Africa: Implementing the Amended Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material (A/CPPNM) for a Safer Future” organized by the African Center for Science and International Security (AFRICSIS) and the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI). UNODC staff delivered a presentation in a panel titled “Navigating the Nuclear Security Landscape: The Prevailing Situation” and contributed to the discussions. Read more here.
• UNODC’s Artem Lazarev also shared that from 30 May to 1 June, UNODC contributed to the Tabletop Exercise (TTX) “Snow Leopard” in Dushanbe, Tajikistan. The exercise aimed to identify and demonstrate effective regional cooperation mechanisms for investigating and prosecuting radiological/nuclear (R/N) crimes, as well as to highlight and understand the relevance and applicability of the International Convention for the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism (ICSANT) and other relevant legal instruments to investigating and prosecuting R/N terrorism. The event brought together over 50 experts from border control, customs, regulatory authorities, law enforcement, Ministries of Foreign Affairs, and other relevant agencies from 13 countries. The TTX was jointly organized by the Governments of the Netherlands, Romania, Tajikistan, and the United States of America, as well as UNODC and UNOCT. Read more here.
• On 28 June 28, Bahram Ghiassee spoke about radiological terrorism on the panel “Asymmetric Threats and National Security” at King’s College London, International School for Government.

Opportunities

• The Capital Area Division (CAD) of Applied Research Associates, Inc. (ARA) has an outstanding opportunity for an exceptional Nuclear Subject Matter Expert with experience identifying, characterizing, and assessing global nuclear and radiological threats including proliferation and procurement trend analysis. Learn more.
• The Middlebury Institute of International Studies, Center for Non-Proliferation Studies is seeking a Research Assistant/Office Manager for their Washington, D.C. office. Learn more.
• Rose Gottemoeller, former Deputy Secretary-General of NATO, is looking for a research assistant at Stanford University to support continuing work on new approaches to weapons of mass destruction arms control, including new monitoring and verification techniques, as well as new approaches to diplomacy and negotiation. The candidate will also support a graduate course on new techniques and technologies for the monitoring and verification of weapons of mass destruction. Learn more.
• The Creative Capsule Residency has a residency opportunity for journalists, artists, and international security experts led by Inkstick Media and Bombshelltoe Policy x Arts Collective. The residency encourages participants to cultivate and share their work beyond traditional frameworks so that they can experiment with new modes of storytelling, take provocative risks, and create unique projects that interweave policy, research, and creativity. Learn more.
• ManTech is currently seeking a Nuclear Intelligence Analyst for their Mission, Cyber & Intelligence Solutions Group in Washington, DC. The position involves technical analysis of foreign nuclear fuel cycle activities, producing technical intelligence products, providing briefings to senior U.S. Department of Energy and National Nuclear Security Administration officials, among additional responsibilities. Learn more.
• SAIC is hiring a Chemical and Nuclear Policy Analyst to lead chemical and nuclear surety support to Deputy Chief of Staff for the Army. The position provides assessment of U.S. Department of Defense surety implementation activities to ensure Army equities are appropriately vetted, and ensures provisions of nuclear and chemical surety, accident, and incident response are complied with. Learn more.
• Systems Planning and Analysis, Inc., is hiring a Senior NATO Nuclear Support Analyst for their Defense Threat Reduction Agency Division to support the U.S. Department of Defense. Learn more.
• Systems Planning and Analysis, Inc., is hiring a Senior Nuclear Weapons Physical Security Analyst for their Defense Threat Reduction Agency Division to support the U.S. Department of Defense. Learn more.
• General Dynamics Information Technology is looking for a junior analyst for their Countering WMD Curriculum. The position will assist with an international WMD training program for the U.S. Department of Defense. Learn more.
• S & K Technologies, Inc., is looking for a program analyst to provide administrative support to the Director and staff at the Department of Energy Savannah River Site (SRS) in Aiken, SC. This position supports mission essential program activities that are crucial to the safe testing, startup, operation, deactivation, and maintenance of highly complex production-scale, radiologically shielded nuclear facilities.Learn more.