The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK or North Korea) has been closing several of its embassies in 2023, reducing the total number of its diplomatic missions to 46.¹ As of December 2023, DPRK embassies in Angola, Bangladesh, Congo, Guinea, Hong Kong, Nepal, Senegal, Spain and Uganda have been closed.  One frequently cited reason is the country’s “dire economy.” However, economic problems have persisted for a long time and are therefore not sufficient to explain the recent series of embassy closures. Instead, they are an indicator of Pyongyang’s long-term strategy of de-risking: a shift from managing risk to avoiding it. ² The term “de-risking” is often used in an economic or financial context, but the concept can also be applied to other areas including international relations, economic liberalization, or market reforms. In that sense, according to the U.S. Department of State, “de-risking refers to the phenomenon of… terminating or restricting… relationships with clients or categories of clients to avoid, rather than manage, risk.”

The geopolitical return to a “new Cold War,” catalyzed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, forms the backdrop for this strategy. The North Korean leadership seems to have adjusted its risk-benefit analysis to the new geopolitical environment. Changes in economic and foreign policy, which had been actively made or passively permitted since the mid-1990s, have been re-evaluated, with the COVID-19 pandemic being a unique, low-key opportunity to undo many of these changes. The membership in a new and firm alliance with Moscow and Beijing helps to offset the economic and political costs of the return to a conservative state-centered economic policy and international isolationism.

This article will discuss the following issues:

• What are these risks from the perspective of the North Korean leadership?
• Why has Pyongyang ever taken these risks?
• Why is it now reconsidering these risks?
• What are the implications of this new strategy?

Read the full analysis on 38 North.