War in Afghanistan
| Date | February 6, 2009 |
| Location | Rayburn House Office Building, Room 2105 |
The Security for a New Century Study Group was honored to host Dr. Catherine Dale, specialist in International Security at the Congressional Research Service (CRS), for a discussion of her recent report on strategic and military operations in Afghanistan. The terrain in Afghanistan is forbidding and its troubled history leaves it unequipped to handle the array of coalition forces present there. Some 40 countries, each with their own domestic political considerations, operate under NATO’s International Security Assistance Force (ISAF). Although NATO faces a challenge coordinating these groups, the United States has the most at stake because it contributes troops to both ISAF and its own unilateral operations for a total of 37,000 troops.
The insurgency in Afghanistan is fragmented. The U.S. military along with NATO are entangled in a counterinsurgency (COIN) operation where the questions “Are we winning?” and “Who is the enemy” are often hard to answer. The enemy is not a monolithic threat. Rather, understanding the diverse nature of the insurgency is essential to effectively combating it. The insurgency is a loose network of native insurgents and foreign fighters who find safe haven in Pakistan and receive their funding from narcotrafficking. The Taliban, while unlikely to consolidate authority, has an increased de facto power that threatens to draw in already increased numbers of fence-sitters. Despite these very real difficulties, Dr. Dale was confident that quelling the insurgency was an achievable aim. However, her prognosis for long-term stability in Afghanistan was less optimistic. She suggested that the deeply entrenched problems of poor governance and lack of economic growth would take a great deal of time to solve.
Regional players including Russia, China, India, and especially Iran and Pakistan have a complex role in Afghanistan. Iranians seek to halt the flow of narcotics into their country and therefore shares an interest in the stability of Afghanistan. But this common aim is confounded by the lethal aid it gives to insurgents near their border region. The real concern, however, lies with Pakistan. COIN operations entail smothering the insurgency, which is impossible given the free escape hatch provided by the border areas. Dr. Dale raised an important question that scholars, policymakers, and military strategists are all considering right now: “How much of Pakistan do you need to fix in order to solve Afghanistan?”
In addition to the complex insurgency and troubling regional neighbors, another issue that is less prominent but possibly more significant in the Afghanistan theater: logistics. The destruction of a US supply line could ruin an entire operation. One caveat toward a troop increase is that more troops mean more supplies, so the US should seriously seek to diversify its supply lines.
The most arduous challenge, however, is the issue of civil-military partnership and the establishment of governance. The primary role for any new troops should be to secure the population in unstable areas, most notably in the eastern and southern regions, as well to train Afghan National Security Force (ANSF). Moreover, while there is already a significant civilian presence in the country, matters outside of Kabul are still dealt with largely by the military and do not always reflect a “bottom-up” approach that utilizes the societal structure of the Afghan people. Since the most difficult long term challenge in Afghanistan is, indeed, governance, an influx of civilian capability should undoubtedly accompany any increased military presence.
The situation on the ground in Afghanistan calls for the coordination of clear and achievable objectives by the US and its NATO allies. Fundamental questions remain about the nature of the conflict, the national interests at stake, and the necessity of a non-military presence in Afghanistan to move toward a successful reconciliation of the conflict.
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