The Mexican Drug Cartels
| Date | Monday, March 30, 2009 |
| Location | Cannon House Office Building Room 122 |
The sharp increase in gang related violence along the US-Mexico border has propelled the drug trade towards the top of both the national security and the political agenda. Fresh tales of violence perpetrated by drug cartels appear in print and on television each day, leading to the issue being depicted by some as ‘war on our doorstep’.
To help Congress staff and other policy makers better understand this complex and transnational issue, Security for a New Century hosted Ray Walser, senior policy analyst specializing in Latin America at The Heritage Foundation, on Monday May 30th.
One of the key underlying questions of this debate is whether this problem is actually of America’s own making. That is to say, is the demand for drugs in the US – whether it be cocaine, marijuana or heroin – the real cause of the drug supply from Latin America and in particular Mexico? Secretary of State Hilary Clinton spoke recently of the US and Mexico having ‘co-responsibility’ for the current situation on a trip to Mexico, suggesting the current administration believes in the need to address both the demand and the supply of drugs. Mr. Walser drew a parallel with other major issues currently facing the US – most notably climate change and the economic crisis – which the US has contributed to and must now find a way of solving.
Many more aspects of this problem are fundamentally transnational in nature. There is, of course, significant south to north movement of drugs over the US/Mexico border. 90% of cocaine used in the US comes from Mexico; up to an estimated 18 metric tones of heroin is smuggled across the border each year; and some 15,000 metric tones of marijuana make the same voyage annually. Simultaneously, there is substantial southward movement over the border of both guns and money. Of the former, exact figures are hard to come by as many are illegal weapons; of the latter, the level is estimated to be in the region of $25 billion.
The combination of lucrative business and large number of weapons leads, inevitably, to violence. The Mexican government estimates the number of drug related deaths in Mexico for 2008 to be around 6,000. Of these, four fifths or more involve those directly involved in drug gangs, and are Mexican police or military personnel. 5% or so are civilians unfortunate enough to become caught up in the violence. Mr. Walser emphasized two points in relation to violence. One is that policy makers must be aware that statistics regarding the Mexican drug trade are not always reliable. The other is that the majority of the violence in Mexico is confined to ‘gateway’ states to the US – it is far from uniform across the country.
That second point brings the discussion to the question of whether or not Mexico can be defined as a failed state. Some analysts have argued a combination of ineffective institutions and widespread lawlessness means that Mexico can now fits into that category. Mr. Walser, on the other hand, pointed out that while many governmental, civic and legal institutions in Mexico are weak, they are still operational for the most part. Moreover, violence in Mexico, although very high in certain areas, is less than that in nearby Guatemala or El Salvador. These factors help to explain why Mexico does not fit the ‘failed state’ criteria as laid down by, for instance, Foreign Policy magazine.
Looking ahead, Mr. Walser laid out issues to be addressed in the short, medium and long terms on both sides of the border. Over the next year, both public and private diplomacy will be vital, as will improving intelligence – particularly with regard to the financial underpinning of the cartels. The central challenge in the medium term is to build on the existing Merida Initiative, which remains the basis for the US and Mexico working in partnership to tackle the drug trade. The gravest challenges are long term. For Mexico, building effective institutions and combating corruption is pivotal. For the US, a re-think of the largely unsuccessful drug policy may have to be considered. Finally, for both nations to continue to be able to work together on this issue will require relations to remain cordial in other areas – such as trade and migration.
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