Russian Ambitions vs. Russian Reality
| Date | September 19, 2008 |
| Location | Cannon House Office Building, Room 122 |
The Security for a New Century Study Group was honored to host Dr. Eugene Rumer, of the Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University for a discusson of the foreign policy intentions and capabilities of a resurgent Russia.
The August 2008 conflict in Georgia represented a resurgence of Russian assertiveness on the world stage. Thsi event was the culmination of a series of Russian policy moves that characterize a state that, as then-President Vladimir Putin put it in a speech in Munich in 2007, "will no longer be pushed around". While these events have caused concern in the West over a return of Cold War tensions, a resurgent Russia bears little resemblence to the Soviet Union.
Russia's internal stability has improved dramatically over the past decade, due in no small part to the skyrocketing price of oil on the world market. The influx of petrodollars allowed the Putin Administration to stabilize an economy that had been in freefall since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Despite thes improvements in Russia's economy many problems remain. Russia's energy infrastructure is a relic of the Soviet era and is in desperate need of maintenance and modernization. This modernization will be difficult to undertake, however, withou an infusion of technology from western firms. These firms will be reluctant to take risks in a state that has proven hostile to foreign investment. Russia faces long-term challenges in both infrastructure and demographics. declining population has led to a reliance on foreign workers (many of them Georgian) to overcome labor shortages. Funds from the booming energy market have not been effectively reinvested in updating Russia's obsolescent industrial base.
The incursion into Georgia also illustrates problems Russia has with power projection abroad. The television coverage of the conflict in Georgia brought back memories of similar footage from the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan nearly thirty years earlier. Russian military equipment has changed little since that invasion in 1979. The bulk of Russia's armed forces still operte Soviet-era weapons systems. This shortcoming was highlighted by Georgia's success in downing a number of Russian aircraft, including a strategic bomber that had been pressed into the reconnaissance role because of Russia's lack of cuttin-edge Unmanned Aerial Vehicles. The historic strength of Russia's military , it's seemingly limitless manpower, has also been eroded. Russia's population currently stands at 141 million and is in decline. The Russian Army's current strength is less that 400,000, nearly half of which are poorly-trained conscripts. While Russia made it clear in August 2008 that it retains the ability to defeat a small regional foe in the field, it's ability to exert control over even it' own territory in the North Caucasus remians in question.
Moscow's newly assertive foreign policy in all
probability signals the end of post-Cold War attempts to integrate
Russia into the exisiting Western security framework. In addition to
the competition from the West for influence in the "near-abroad",
Russia will face competition from China in Central Asia. China and the
Central Asian states comprising the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
notably refused to back their Russian ally by recognizing the breakaway
Georgian republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The primary US
interest in Russia remains in cooperatively addressing the
proliferation threat presented by Russia's stockpiles of nuclear
weapins and fissile material. Russian cooperation is also critical in
the ongoing dispute over Iran's nuclear program. A return to
adversarial Cold War postures can only damage US interests in this
arena. AS such, integration of new members into NATO merits careful
consideration. The NATO Aliiance's Article V provisions are not to be
taken lightly. While common interests do still exist between Washington
and Moscow, the recent events in Georgia represent the end of the
win-win opportunities that existed between the two states in the
immediate post-Cold War period.
"Security for a New Century"
is a bipartisan study group for Congress. we meet regularly with US and
international policy preofessionals to discuss the post-Cold War and
post-9/11 security environment. Please call (202) 223-5956 for more information.