Dr. Richard Cincotta is a Political Demographer and Director of the Global Political Demography Program whose research focuses on the demographic transition and its relationships to political, economic and environmental change.
His publications on these topics have appeared in Foreign Policy, Nature and Science magazines. He is also a Woodrow Wilson Center Global Fellow and an Intelligence Community Associate. In the latter capacity, Dr. Cincotta has contributed to the National Intelligence Council's two most recent global futuring exercises, Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds (2012), and Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World (2008) as well as the Geneva Declaration Secretariat's Global Burden of Armed Violence(2008).
Books and Monographs
Cincotta, R.P. and L.J. Gorenflo, eds. 2011. Human Population: Its Influences on Biological Diversity, Ecological Studies Series, Vol. 214. Berlin: Springer-Verlag.
Cincotta, R.P., R. Engelman, D. Anastasion. 2003. The Security Demographic: Population and Civil Conflict After the Cold War. Washington, DC: Population Action International (104 pp). [Reviewed by J.A. Goldstone, Environmental Change and Security Project Report, 10: 54-57; republished in Japanese by Asian Parliamentarians Forum].
Cincotta, R. P., and R. Engelman. 2000. Nature's Place: Human Population and the Future of Biological Diversity. Population Action International, Washington, DC (107 pp.);; [re-published in German: Cincotta and Engelman. 2001. Mench, Natur. Deutche Stiftung Welbevolkerung, Hanover (155 pp)].
Articles (Journals, book chapters, op-eds)
Cincotta, R. Will Tunisia’s Democracy Survive? The View from Political Demography”. May 11, 2015.http://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2015/05/tunisias-democracy-survive-view-political-demography/. Also available on the Stimson Spotlight blog.
Cincotta, R. 2015. “Demography as Early Warning: Gauging Future Political Transitions in the Age-structural Time Domain.” J. Intelligence Analysis, 22 (2): 129-148, (special issue: Early Warning, R. Fahlmann, ed.).
Cincotta, R. 2015. “Who’s Next? Age Structure and the Prospects of Democracy in North Africa and the Middle East.” In: Population Change in Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa: Beyond the Demographic Divide (Christiane Timmerman, Neels Karel, Sara Mels, Jacques Haers, and Koenraad Matthijs, eds.), Ashgate, London, pp. 167-202. [subject of article in New Scientist:http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21428653.800-egypt-arab-spring-could-be-wasted-in-youthful-nations.html?full=true&print=true, May 17, 2012].
Cincotta, R. 2013. “Government without the Ultra-Orthodox? Demography and the Future of Israeli Politics,” FPRI e-Notes, Dec. 2013, Foreign Policy Research Institute. http://www.fpri.org/docs/Cincotta__Government_without_the_UltraOrthodox.pdf
Cincotta, R. 2013. “The Future to 2030, According to Demography,” In The Future Can’t Wait, (Gale, S. and S. Jackson, eds.). Washington, DC: USAID & U.S. National Defense University, pages 24-41.
Cincotta, Richard. 2013. “The Age-structural Timing of Democratization in East Asia: Identifying Past Patterns, Hypothesizing Possible Futures,” In (pp. 215-232): Proceedings of the IUSSP Asia-Pacific Region Special Sessions, IUSSP Quadrennial Conference, Busan, S. Korea.
Contributor to: (US) National Intelligence Council. 2012. Global Trends 2030: Alternative Futures. Washington, DC: Office of the Director of National Intelligence (chapter on demographic trends).
Cincotta, R.P. 2012. “Demography: A Development Perspective.” Pages 291-310, in: Security and Development in Global Politics: A Critical Comparison, Spear, J. and P.D. Williams, eds. Georgetown University Press, Washington, DC.
Cincotta, R.P. and J. Doces. 2012. “The Age-structural Maturity Thesis: the Impact of the Youth Bulge on the Advent and Stability of Liberal Democracy.” Pages 98-116, in: Political Demography: How Population Changes Are Reshaping International Security and National Politics, edited by J. A. Goldstone, Eric P. Kaufmann and Monica Duffy Toft. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
Cincotta, R. 2011. “Socioeconomic Studies”, In: Seismic Shift: Understanding Change in the Middle East(Laipson, E., ed.). Washington, DC: Stimson Center, pp. 29-36.
Cincotta, R. 2011. “Sub-Saharan Africa’s Reluctant Fertility Transition.” Current History, May: 184-189.
Cincotta, R.P. 2011. “The Biological Diversity that is Humanly Possible: Three Models Relevant to Human Population’s Relationship with Native Species,” In (Cincotta, R.P. and L.J. Gorenflo, eds) Human Population: Its Influences on Biological Diversity, Ecological Studies Series, Vol. 214, pp 61-73. Berlin: Springer-Verlag.
Cincotta, R.P. and E. Kaufmann. 2010. “Uncompromising Demography in a Promised Land.” NIC 2010-05. Washington, DC: National Intelligence Council.
Cincotta, R.P. 2010. “Iran’s Demography to 2025: Middle East Tiger or Shi’ia Hawk?” NIC 2010-06. Washington, DC: National Intelligence Council.
Cincotta, R.P. 2009. “Demographic Challenges to the State,” In (Tschirgi, N., Lund, M.S., and Mancini, F., eds.) Security & Development: Searching for Critical Connections, pp. 77-98. International Peace Institute & Lynne Reiner, New York.
Cincotta, R.P. 2009 (Nov. 16). Can Demography Save Afghanistan? Foreign Policyhttp://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/11/16/could_demography_save_afghanistan
Cincotta, R.P. 2009 (June 25). “Iran’s Chinese Future.” Foreign Policy Magazine (online),http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/06/25/irans_chinese_future?new
Cincotta, R.P. and E. Kaufmann. 2009 (May 15). “The Changing Face of Israel.” Foreign Policy Magazine:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=4956 ;
Cincotta, R.P. and L. Hummel. 2009. “Africa’s Youthful Age Structure and Its Security Implications.” In (Richmond Krackowa, A. and Hummel, L., eds) Africa’s Strategic Geography. Carlisle, PA: US Army War College & US Military Academy, pp. 257-282.http://www.dean.usma.edu/departments/geo/Publications/Understanding%20Africa.pdf
Contributor to: National Intelligence Council (U.S.). 2009. Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World. Washington, DC: National Intelligence Council (http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2025_project.html).
Cincotta, R.P. 2008/09. “Half a Chance: Youth Bulges and Transitions to Liberal Democracy,”Environmental Change and Security Program Report, 13: 10-18.
Cincotta, R.P. 2008. “How Democracies Grow Up.” Foreign Policy, March/April, 80-82 (plus supplementary map and graph online). A retrospective on this paper’s predictions of trends toward democracy in North Africa is the subject of a C-Span Video: http://www.c-spanvideo.org/richardcincotta
Cincotta, R.P. 2005. “Génération Guerre.” Opinion/International Section, p. 22 in La Libre Belgique.Brussels, Jan. 29, 2005.
Mastny, L. and R.P. Cincotta. 2005. “Examining the Connections Between Population and Security,” Pages 22-39, in: State of the World, 2005, New York: W.W. Norton.
Cincotta, R.P. 2004. “Demographic Security Comes of Age,” Environmental Change and Security Project Report, 10: 24-29.
Cincotta, R.P., R. Engelman. “The Demographics of Discord.” Opinion. International Herald Tribune.March 2, 2004.
R.P. Cincotta and B.B. Crane. 2001. “The Mexico City Policy and U.S. Family Planning Assistance.”Science 294: 525-526.
Cincotta, R.P., J. Wisnewski, and R. Engelman. 2000. “Human population in the biodiversity hotspots.”Nature 404: 990-992.